新戰場耐克股市沖天,阿迪達斯無奈跑輸大綱

Rory McIlroy is not having a good season on the golf course. A year ago the wunderkind from Northern Ireland finished second in the rankings. This year he did not even qualify for the end-of-season Tour Championship. But he is not the only one fluffing his shots. Adidas, the German sportswear maker, has cut its full-year net income guidance by almost a tenth, to between 820m and 850m. That sent its shares down 4 per cent on Friday. One of the reasons it cited was the poor state of the global golf market.
來自北愛爾蘭的高爾夫神童羅裏•麥克羅伊(Rory McIlroy)本賽季發揮不好。去年排名第二的他，今年甚至未能獲得賽季末巡迴錦標賽的參賽資格。但他不是唯一搞砸了的人。德國運動用品製造商阿迪達斯(Adidas)將其全年淨利潤指引調低了近十分之一，目前預計在8.2億至8.5億歐元之間。這個消息導致週五阿迪達斯股價下跌4%。阿迪達斯提到的原因中，有一條就是全球高爾夫市場不景氣。

It seems that golfers the world over are not stocking up on new drivers and irons. But that is not the only reason why Adidas revised its forecasts. Continued weakness in a range of currencies from the Russian rouble to the Argentine peso against the euro played a part. This is not surprising. Currency effects had already wiped 3 per cent off group sales in the first half from a year earlier. Adidas’ German rival Puma, which also books its sales in euros, is suffering too.
全世界的高爾夫球員看上去都停止了添置新球杆，不管是木杆還是鐵桿。但這並不是阿迪達斯調低收益預期的唯一原因。還有一個原因是，從俄羅斯盧布到阿根廷比索等一系列貨幣對歐元比價持續走低。這並不令人意外。匯率效應已導致阿迪達斯今年上半年銷售額同比下跌3%。阿迪達斯的德國競爭對手彪馬(Puma)日子也不好過，彪馬的銷售額也以歐元計算。

More worrying for Adidas was a hiccup at one of its new distribution centres in Russia, its third-biggest market after the US and China. Its strength in Russia gives it an advantage that helps to offset the global superiority of its biggest rival, Nike. The US sportswear group commands more market share in all of its key markets and has operating margins of 13 per cent, nearly two-thirds more than Adidas. What is more, as Adidas moves away from its flagging Reebok brand, especially in the US, it is Nike, not Adidas, that is picking up the share.
對阿迪達斯而言，更令人擔憂的是俄羅斯的一個新銷售中心發展不順利。俄羅斯是阿迪達斯僅次於美國和中國的第三大市場，俄羅斯業務的強勁增長曾是阿迪達斯相對於最大競爭對手耐克(Nike)的一個優勢，而耐克在全球範圍裏領先於阿迪達斯。美國運動用品集團耐克在其所有關鍵市場上都佔有更高的市場份額，營運利潤率高達13%，比阿迪達斯高出近三分之二。此外，隨着阿迪達斯逐漸放棄旗下江河日下的銳步(Reebok)品牌（特別是在美國），吞下銳步吐出的那部分市場份額的不是阿迪達斯，而是耐克。

In the circumstances, it is not surprising that the outperformance of Nike extends to the stock market. Traditionally the share prices of the two industry behemoths track each other closely. But this year Nike’s shares have gained a third, more than twice as much as Adidas’s, with most of the gains coming this month. That has widened the valuation gap. Nike now trades on 23 times forward earnings, a chunky 60 per cent ahead of Adidas. The latter still has room to grow in China, and it is sponsoring most of the big teams in next year’s Fifa World Cup in Brazil. Like Mr McIlroy, Adidas should not be written off yet.
在這種形勢下，業績優異的耐克在股市上跑贏也就不足爲奇了。一般來說，耐克和阿迪達斯這兩大行業巨頭的股價走勢不分上下。但耐克的股價今年累計上漲了三分之一，漲幅爲阿迪達斯的兩倍以上，大部分漲幅發生在本月。這拉開了雙方的估值差距。耐克目前的預期市盈率爲23倍，比阿迪達斯高出足足60%。阿迪達斯在中國市場上仍有增長空間，它也是明年巴西世界盃(Fifa World Cup)多數主要球隊的贊助商。和麥克羅伊一樣，目前阿迪達斯這隻個股並非完全不值得考慮。