美大選主題:你比四年前過得更好嗎?大綱
Are you better off than you were four years ago? Ronald Reagan's famous question to voters in his 1980 campaign now looms over the 2012 presidential election.
你比四年前過得更好嗎？里根（Ronald Reagan）在1980年總統競選中向選民所提的這個問題現在開始籠罩2012年總統大選。
Barack Obama took office in January 2009-as credit markets stalled, stocks plunged and unemployment shot higher. Nearly four years later, many Americans have escaped the worst effects of the crisis. But they have made little progress beyond that, according to several measures of the U.S. economy.
奧巴馬（Barack Obama）於2009年1月就任，當時隨着信貸市場停滯，股票暴跌，失業率飆升。近四年後，許多美國人逃過了那次危機帶來的最壞影響。但從美國經濟的多個衡量指標來看，這些人除此之外並未取得多大進步。
The November vote is likely to turn on whether more Americans credit President Obama for averting financial catastrophe-a main assertion of his campaign-or blame him for a disappointingly weak recovery, the central message of Republican rival Mitt Romney.
今年11月的大選可能會取決於，認爲奧巴馬總統對阻止金融災難有貢獻（這是其一大競選主張）的美國人多，還是認爲他對令人失望的微弱復甦有責任（這是共和黨總統候選人對手羅姆尼（Mitt Romney）向選民傳遞的一個核心信息）的人多。
Working-class Allentown and the surrounding area in the rolling hills of northeastern Pennsylvania reflect in many ways the overall U.S. economic experience and mood. Residents here have bounced back from some setbacks but are working harder to stay afloat.
在賓夕法尼亞州東北部連綿起伏的丘陵地帶，以工人階級爲主的城市艾倫頓（Allentown）及其周邊區域在一定程度上反映了美國整體的經濟歷程及民衆的心態。這裏的居民已經從某些挫折中反彈過來，但依然在加倍努力維持下去。
Jim Kelchner, 63 years old, lost his job when the housing bust triggered the closing of the lumber yard he managed. He collected unemployment insurance in 2009 for a few months. In 2010, he landed two part-time jobs: one as a maintenance man at a Lowe's store, the other working in the warehouse of Coca-Cola Park, home to the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, a triple-A minor league baseball team.
63歲的凱爾科納（Jim Kelchner）管理着一座木料場，房地產泡沫破滅時，他丟了工作。2009年，他拿了幾個月的失業保險。2010年，他找到了兩份兼職：一份是在一家Lowe's商店做維修員，另一份是在可口可樂公園球場（Coca-Cola Park）的倉庫工作。該球場是棒球小聯盟3A球隊Lehigh Valley IronPigs的主場。
Mr. Kelchner earns what he made in 2009, about $750 a week, but he has to work 75 hours-much more than before. 'I don't get to see my wife as often,' he said. The struggle, he added, has been 'just to get back to where I was.' He has voted for Democrats in the past but said he wasn't sure how he would vote in November.
凱爾科納賺到了和2009年差不多的薪水，大約每週750美元，但每週得工作75小時，時間比以前多得多。他說，“我沒法和以前一樣經常見到我的妻子了。”他說自己一直如此奮力掙扎“也僅僅是跟原先差不多的狀況”。他以前給民主黨投票，但他說還不確定今年11月會投給誰。
Mr. Obama says he inherited a sick economy from Republicans that will take more time to heal. Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, says Mr. Obama made matters worse, and that he can better address the economy's problems.
奧巴馬說，他從共和黨人那裏接手了處於蕭條狀態、需要更多時間恢復的經濟。而馬薩諸塞州前州長羅姆尼說，奧巴馬讓事態變得更糟了，而且說自己能更好地解決美國經濟的問題。
Voters appear split over whom to believe. In the six Wall Street Journal/NBC News national polls dating back to January, Mr. Obama's handling of the economy has never won approving reviews from more than 45% of respondents, while between half and 53% have said they disapproved. The economy and jobs dwarf all other issues, according to the polls, yet Mr. Obama maintains a small lead over Mr. Romney.
在究竟該相信誰的問題上，選民似乎分成了兩個陣營。在《華爾街日報》和美國全國廣播公司（NBC）早在1月份所做的六項全國民調中，奧巴馬對經濟的處理手段均未獲得超過45%受調查者的認可，表示不認可的人的比例在半數到53%之間。從這些調查來看，經濟和就業是最突出的問題，但奧巴馬目前依然以微弱優勢領先羅姆尼。
The unemployment rate, at 8.3%, is higher under Mr. Obama than it has been for any president seeking re-election since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. On its face, that bodes poorly for Mr. Obama. But considering how high it was when he took office, at 7.8%, the figure is a more nuanced indicator.
奧巴馬時期的失業率爲8.3%，比羅斯福（Franklin Delano Roosevelt）以來尋求連任的任何一位總統在任時的失業率都高。表面來看這似乎對奧巴馬不利。但考慮到他就任時高達7.8%的失業率，這個數字就是一個更微妙的指標了。
That is because the jobless rate rose more sharply, although from lower levels, during the first terms of some re-elected presidents. Since Mr. Obama's inauguration in January 2009, it has risen half a percentage point. During George W. Bush's first 42 months in office, it rose 1.3 percentage points, from 4.2% to 5.5%; and during Richard Nixon's first term it rose more than two points, from 3.4% to 5.6%.
這是因爲在某些連任總統的首任任期中，失業率增長得更劇烈，儘管本來水平就比較低。自奧巴馬2009年1月就任以來，失業率增長了0.5個百分點。小布什（George W. Bush）上任後的42個月中，失業率從4.2%升至5.5%，漲了1.3個百分點；在尼克松（Richard Nixon）的第一個任期期間，失業率的漲幅超過了兩個點，從3.4%升至5.6%。
Presidents George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter saw rising unemployment during what turned out to be their last year in office, and they weren't re-elected. Under Mr. Obama, the rate has stagnated in 2012-a more favorable trend than the defeated presidents' showing.
在老布什（George H.W. Bush）和卡特（Jimmy Carter）的任期內，有一段時間失業率飆升，而這正好是他們任期的最後一年，最終他們沒有連任。奧巴馬任期內，失業率在2012年沒有波動，與上述兩位未能連任的總統相比，這是個更有利的趨勢。
With the U.S. economy still balanced on a knife's edge between improvement and decline, movements one way or another in coming weeks could affect voter views more than usual. Growth in the second quarter of the year slowed to 1.5%, the government reported last month, too little to bring down unemployment.
美國經濟會好轉還是衰退，這還很難說，但無論如何，未來幾周的動作都會異乎尋常地影響選民的看法。政府上個月公佈，今年第二季度的增長減緩至1.5%，不足以拉低失業率。
Signs of an incomplete recovery abound. Companies are leaner and more efficient, but wary of investing or hiring. Consumers have reduced debts substantially, setting the stage for better times, but remain worried about stagnant income and unemployment.
復甦不徹底的跡象比比皆是。各公司規模更精簡更有效率，但在投資和招人問題上謹小慎微。消費者大幅削減債務，努力爲更好的光景打基礎，但卻依然擔心收入停滯和失業。
'The greatest question for Mr. Obama is whether he can overcome disappointment with the way he handled the economy,' said Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center. The prior state of the economy is of scant importance to voters, he said: 'What he inherited and what he prevented doesn't have the same weight as the judgments people make about what they see now.'
皮尤研究中心（Pew Research Center）負責人科胡特（Andrew Kohut）說，“對奧巴馬來說，最大的問題在於他是否能戰勝人們對他處理經濟的方式的失望情緒。”他說，美國經濟之前的狀況對選民並不重要，“他所接手的以及他所阻止的，與人們對他們現在所看到的東西做出的判斷並不具有同樣的分量。”
One metric looms ominously over Mr. Obama's re-election effort: real disposable income. A measure of income after inflation and taxes, real disposable income per person has fallen 0.3% during Mr. Obama's tenure. That compares poorly with presidents who successfully sought second terms and those who lost. The figure rose 10.2% under Mr. Nixon, 10% under Mr. Reagan, 5.2% under Mr. Clinton and 7.2% under George W. Bush. Stacked against Mr. Obama's record, this pocketbook measure looked brighter even under Mr. Carter (up 5%), and George H.W. Bush (up 3%)-both of whom lost their re-election bids.
有一個指標不祥地籠罩在奧巴馬的連任事業上：實際可支配收入。作爲一種經通脹調整的稅後收入的衡量指標，人均實際可支配收入在奧巴馬任期內下降了0.3%。這與成功尋求連任以及連任失敗的那些總統相比都不太妙。尼克松任期內該數據增長了10.2%，里根、克林頓和小布什任期內分別增長了10%、5.2%和7.2%。由於有奧巴馬墊底，在卡特和老布什任期內，這個衡量人們收入的指標的表現也還算不錯（增幅分別爲5%和3%）──兩人競選連任均以失敗告終。
People here in Allentown are adjusting to the harsh realities. The local T-Mobile USA Inc. call center has closed, laying off hundreds of workers. Area food banks served 42,824 meals to needy families in March, up 33% from three years earlier.
在艾倫頓，這裏的人們正在適應嚴酷的現實。當地的T-Mobile公司呼叫中心已經關閉，解僱了數百名員工。食物銀行（food bank）3月份向貧困家庭供應了42,824頓飯，較三年前增加了33%。City officials have struggled to revive the downtown after a flight to the suburbs by business and middle-income households. Municipal hiring is frozen.
公司和中等收入家庭紛紛逃往城郊後，市政府艱難地試圖振興市中心。市政府的招聘處於凍結狀態。
Yet IronPig fans continue to pack the baseball stadium on game nights, and, in other signs of economic rebound, the city's planning commission is reviewing more building applications than a few years ago.
不過IronPig球迷依然會在球賽之夜擠滿棒球場，而且還有一個經濟反彈的跡象是，市規劃委員會在審查的建築設施比幾年前要多。
Mayor Ed Pawlowski, an Obama supporter, said he was frustrated by how uncertainty has held back growth and hiring even as he sees signs the economy is thawing. 'You look at the global situation, and there's definitely storm clouds out there, but that doesn't mean there are storm clouds coming our way,' he said. 'We can't spend all our time staring at the sky.'
支持奧巴馬的市長帕洛斯基（Ed Pawlowski）說，在他看到經濟回暖的跡象時，不明朗的狀態抑制了增長和招聘，這讓他很苦惱。他說，“從全球形勢來看，肯定是烏雲密佈，但並不意味着烏雲正向我們襲來；我們不能把所有時間都花在盯着天空看。”
Thomas Ritter, 43, is a licensed plumber who had flourished in a family business with his father in the 2000s, equipping new homes with pipes, sinks, tubs and toilets. Business started fading in 2008. By 2009, it all but disappeared. Mr. Ritter, a father of four, started missing mortgage payments.
43歲的瑞特爾（Thomas Ritter）是一名持證水管工，他與父親合作的家庭生意在2000年代發展得很不錯，專門爲新居安裝水管、水槽、浴盆和馬桶。生意從2008年開始下滑，到2009年差不多就徹底沒有了。身爲四個孩子父親的瑞特爾開始還不起抵押貸款了。
'It got scary there,' he said. 'I had a decision at the end of the month: Am I going to send a check to Blue Cross or am I going to pay the mortgage?'
他說，“形勢變得很可怕；月底我得做一個決定：我是要給藍十字保險公司（Blue Cross）寄一張支票呢，還是還房貸？”
In 2009, he started driving a school bus and delivering firetrucks for a local manufacturer to cities across the U.S.
2009年，他開始當校車司機併爲一家當地製造商向美國各城市運送消防車。
Last year, he got a job helping anchor Mack truck cabs to vehicles on the production line. Mr. Ritter is still cutting back: less vacation time at the beach, fewer meals out. But he said he was no doubt better off than four years ago because his manufacturing job gives him more security.
去年，他在麥克卡車公司（Mack Trucks Inc.）找到一份工作，在生產線上爲卡車裝配駕駛室。瑞特爾現在依然在削減開支：沙灘度假少了，外出就餐也少了。但他說自己絕對比四年前過得更好，因爲這份在製造公司的工作給了他更多的安全感。
'When a bill collector calls, I can say, 'I'm going to pay you on the 15th,' ' he said.
他說，“收賬員打來電話的時候，我能說‘我會在15號付款’了。”
Trends in employment, income and home prices in and around Allentown have been similar to national averages, according to Moody's Analytics, a research firm.
據穆迪研究公司（Moody's Analytics）稱，艾倫頓及其周邊地區就業、收入和房價的趨勢與全國平均水平相似。
Allentown's unemployment rate was 8.7%, not seasonally adjusted, in June after nearing 10% during the crisis. Overall U.S. employment, at 133.2 million jobs in July, is a shade below the 133.6 million level of January 2009 and up from the low of 129.2 million in February 2010.
經濟危機期間，艾倫頓的失業率達到近10%，今年6月份未經季節性調整的失業率爲8.7%。全美7月份的就業崗位爲1.332億，略低於2009年1月份的1.336億，高於2010年2月的低值1.292億。
U.S. household wealth is up strongly since Mr. Obama took office, thanks in large measure to a stock market rebound. Total U.S. household net worth rose to $62.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2012 from $53.6 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2008. However, that is still down from more than $67 trillion in 2007, before the crisis.
美國家庭財富自奧巴馬上任以來取得強勁增長，這在很大程度歸功於股市的反彈。2012年第一季度，美國家庭財富淨值總額從2008年第四季度的53.6萬億美元增至62.9萬億美元，不過依然低於危機前2007年的67萬多億美元。
The stock market recovery, of course, primarily benefited people with equities. The value of U.S. household wealth in real estate has failed to recover after collapsing before Mr. Obama's inauguration. It was $6.7 trillion in the first quarter of this year, below its late 2008 level and down from a high of $13.9 trillion in the second quarter of 2006.
當然，股市復甦主要使有股票的人得到了好處。奧巴馬就任前，美國房產領域的家庭財富價值崩潰，後來沒能恢復。今年第一季度爲6.7萬億美元，低於2008年末的水平，遠不如2006年第二季度13.9萬億美元的高值。
Local manufacturing is re-emerging as a bright spot. The one-million-square-foot Mack Truck factory, which employs Mr. Ritter, recently added a second shift of 300 workers to keep up with demand for the big vehicles that bear its bulldog logo. Mack Trucks Inc. is a unit of the Volvo Group.
本地製造業正逐漸東山再起，成爲熱門。僱傭瑞特爾的面積100萬平方平尺的麥克卡車工廠最近新增了300名倒班工人，以維持對印有其鬥牛犬品牌標識的大卡車的需求。麥克卡車公司是沃爾沃集團（Volvo Group）的子公司。
In Nazareth, Pa., 15 miles northeast of Allentown, Rory Glass inlays ornamental designs and runs laser machinery to shape acoustic guitars at the factory of C.F. Martin & Co., which has made renowned acoustic instruments for more than 100 years. Its customers have included the Beatles, Johnny Cash, Eric Clapton and Elvis Presley.
在艾倫頓東北方向15英里的賓州納澤瑞斯（Nazareth），格拉斯（Rory Glass）在馬丁吉他公司（C.F. Martin & Co.）的工廠鑲嵌裝飾性設計並運行一臺製造原聲吉他的激光設備。馬丁公司製作知名樂器的歷史已超過100年，其客戶包括披頭士（the Beatles）、約翰尼•卡什（Johnny Cash）、埃裏克•克萊普頓（Eric Clapton）以及貓王埃爾維斯•普萊斯利（Elvis Presley）。
Mr. Glass said he is better off now than a year ago, when he was working in a garden center watering plants and living with his parents. Last year, he applied for the job at Martin, which has been on a hiring binge after seeing demand surge for its high-end guitars among affluent Americans, as well as players and collectors abroad.
格拉斯說，他現在過得比一年前要好，那時他在一個園藝中心負責給植物澆水，和父母住在一起。去年，他應聘了馬丁公司的工作。由於有錢的美國人、國外演奏者及收藏家對其高端吉他的需求激增，馬丁公司一直在大舉招人。
The 29-year-old pony-tailed musician lives with his girlfriend, hopes for a promotion and is saving to buy a house with his $15-an-hour job. 'The economy can't be doing that bad if people are buying $60,000 guitars,' said Mr. Glass, who is still undecided about the presidential candidates.
這位現年29歲、扎着馬尾辮的音樂家和他的女友住在一起，他希望能獲得升職，現在他正在存錢買房子，目前他的時薪是15美元。格拉斯說，“如果有人在買六萬美元的吉他，那經濟狀況肯定不會那麼差。”格拉斯對投票給哪位總統候選人依然猶豫不決。
Martin last year sold a record $100 million in guitars and other acoustic instruments, with 40% of sales going overseas, with high demand in Japan and Europe. Sales in 2009 had fallen to $86 million.
馬丁公司創立於1833年，一直由馬丁家族掌管。去年，馬丁公司的吉他及其他樂器銷售額爲一億美元，創下了歷史最高紀錄，其中40%來自海外銷售，日本和歐洲的需求很大。2009年其銷售額曾跌至8,600萬美元。
Chris Martin, the chief executive, whose family has run the company since 1833, expects $115 million in sales this year. But his concerns mirror the hand-wringing everywhere.
公司首席執行長馬丁（Chris Martin）預計今年銷售額將達到1.15億美元。但他的一些擔憂也反映了無處不在的絕望情緒。
'I am honestly right now worried that there could be a triggering event to cause a lot more people in Europe to say, 'I don't feel comfortable buying a luxury good right now,' ' he said. 'And let's face it, that is what a Martin guitar is.'
他說，“現在我真的很擔心會出現一個事件導致歐洲很多人說‘現在我不想買奢侈品’，實話實說吧，馬丁吉他就是奢侈品。”
Some people who say they feel better off now compared with four years ago explain that it isn't because they are making much more money but because they have put their finances in order.
有人說他們覺得現在比四年前過得好，他們解釋說不是因爲賺的錢更多了，而是因爲自己的財務狀況變得井然有序了。
Since Mr. Obama was elected, U.S. households have paid off-or defaulted-on $746 billion of debt, an unprecedented reduction in the modern era, Federal Reserve data show. With low interest rates and lower debt loads, the monthly cost of servicing household debt as a share of income has fallen to its lowest level in almost two decades.
美聯儲（Federal Reserve）的數據顯示，自奧巴馬當選以來，美國家庭還清了──或者說拖欠了──7,460億美元的債務，這是在當今時代前所未見的一個數額。由於利率較低、債務負擔減輕，每月以收入的一部分支付家庭債務的成本已經跌至近二十年來的最低水平。
The new frugality isn't always easy. Jesse Simpson, 27, works three jobs, including one as a delivery man for a local beer distributor and another in the warehouse at Coca-Cola Park. In 2007, he enrolled in a Los Angeles film school and owes more than $70,000 in student loans and other debt.
新節儉時代的生活並不容易。27歲的辛普森（Jesse Simpson）打了三份工，其中一份是爲當地一家啤酒經銷商做送貨員，另一份是在可口可樂公園球場（Coca-Cola Park）的倉庫工作。2007年，他上了洛杉磯的一家電影學校，欠下了七萬多美元的學生貸款和其他債務。
'Four years ago, I was moving back home with no money, a maxed-out credit card and no job,' he said. Now he is working, cutting out unnecessary spending and paying down debt.
他說，“四年前我搬回家的時候，沒錢、信用卡透支，也沒有工作。”現在他在工作，削減了不必要的開支並償還債務。
'I'm definitely doing better,' he said. With a deep breath, he added, 'I can honestly say I'm exhausted and running myself ragged.' He said he voted for Mr. Obama in 2008, and may again, but is so far undecided.
他說，“現在我肯定過得更好了。”接着他深吸了一口氣說道，“老實說我特別累，精疲力盡。”他說他2008年投票給了奧巴馬，這次可能也會選他，但目前還沒有最終決定。
Mr. Obama's signature economic program, the $825 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, was a combination of tax breaks and spending programs aimed at arresting the economy's deep contraction in early 2009 and stimulating growth. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated the act created between 500,000 and 3.3 million jobs─far less than the 8.7 million jobs lost during the downturn.
奧巴馬的標誌性經濟計劃──8,250億美元的《美國復甦與再投資法案》（American Recovery and Reinvestment Act）──是減稅和開支計劃的結合，旨在阻止美國經濟重蹈2009年初嚴重萎縮的覆轍並刺激增長。無黨派機構國會預算辦公室（Congressional Budget Office）估計該法案創造了50萬至330萬個就業崗位，遠少於衰退時期損失的870萬。
The recovery has left behind a legion of unemployed, including Roy Bastian, a chemist near 50 who lost his job in early 2008 as a researcher conducting gas-and-chemical experiments at Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.
大量的失業者在這場復甦中依然找不到工作，包括快50歲的化學師巴斯蒂安（Roy Bastian），他曾在空氣化工產品公司（Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.）擔任研究員，負責氣體化學實驗，後來在2008年初失業。
Mr. Bastian, who drives a rusted Dodge Neon, said he has applied for jobs but with no luck. But, he said, more jobs seem to be opening up now than a year ago.
巴斯蒂安開的是一輛鏽跡斑斑的道奇霓虹（Dodge Neon）。他說，他找過工作，但運氣不好。不過他說，現在開放的招聘崗位似乎比一年前多了。
'Am I better off? No,' he said, 'Do I expect to be better off? Yes, very soon. My own fear is that everything is going to stall. People will say, 'We can hire someone after November, after we know what's going to happen going forward.' '
他說，“我的生活更好了嗎？沒有。我會過得更好嗎？是的，很快就會。我的擔心是一切都會停滯。人們會說，‘在11月以後、在我們知道將來會是什麼情況以後，我們纔會招人。’”
