美國大選進入決戰階段大綱
The end is in sight.
終點就在眼前。
In 50 days we will know whether Donald Trump has pulled off the biggest upset in American history.
再過不到50天，我們將知道唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)是否會爆出美國曆史上最大的冷門。
It is a credit to the reality TV star’s populist skills that such an outcome is possible.
這種結果有可能出現，本身就是這位真人秀明星的民粹主義技巧的榮耀。
Hillary Clinton is all that stands between the world and the Trumpian abyss.
希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)是阻止整個世界落入特朗普式深淵的唯一屏障。
It is a pity she has to pull this off while recovering from pneumonia.
希拉里在肺炎恢復期還要設法阻止特朗普，這令人遺憾。
It is little short of astonishing that this close to midnight she feels obliged to launch another drive to explain to voters why she wants to be president.
幾乎令人大吃一驚的是，在美國如此接近午夜（希拉里曾譴責特朗普的午夜美國——譯者注）的時候，她還感覺必須開展另一輪造勢，來向選民解釋她爲何想當總統。
What exactly was the past year about? Or the past decade? As the song says, If you don’t know me by now . . .
過去的一年她到底在幹什麼？或者過去10年在幹什麼？正如那首歌所唱的，如果你到現在還不瞭解我……
It is safe to say that Mrs Clinton is not about to pull a rabbit out of the hat.
這麼說應該不會錯：希拉里不會變魔術。
Voters will have to make do with her campaign themes of building bridges rather than walls, and being stronger together.
選民將不得不湊合接受她的競選主題——建起橋樑而不是豎起高牆以及團結就是力量(Stronger Together)。
Laudable though such sentiments are, they are dangerously anodyne.
儘管這些觀點值得讚揚，但它們太四平八穩，這很危險。
They tell voters what Mrs Clinton is not — Donald Trump.
這些觀點告訴選民，希拉里不是唐納德•特朗普。
They tell us next to nothing about what she would do.
但它們幾乎沒有說明希拉里會做什麼。
Her success is thus predicated on Mr Trump’s indiscipline, which cannot always be relied upon (recent gaffes about disarming his opponent’s secret service detail notwithstanding).
因此，對於希拉里勝出的預測，建立在特朗普老是亂來的基礎上，而這一基礎並不總是可靠（雖然最近特朗普又失言了——他說應解散保護希拉里的特勤隊）。
If he sticks to advice by reaching out to African-Americans, Hispanics and women he can take the edge off Mrs Clinton’s warnings.
如果他嚴格遵從向非裔、拉丁裔和女性示好的建議，他可以讓希拉里的警告失去殺傷力。
What then, would her campaign be left with?
那樣的話，她的競選活動還有什麼威力剩下？
The answer is worryingly vague.
這個問題的答案含糊得令人擔憂。
Next week Mrs Clinton and Mr Trump will face off in what will almost certainly be the most watched television debate in history.
很快，希拉里和特朗普將在電視辯論中一決高下，這場辯論幾乎可以肯定會成爲史上收視率最高的電視辯論。
Mr Trump will start on low expectations.
人們一開始對特朗普的期望值將較低。
Mrs Clinton is an accomplished and well-prepared debater.
希拉里是訓練有素、準備充分的辯手。
That means Mr Trump’s bar for winning will be far lower.
這意味着判定特朗普贏得辯論的標準會低得多。
For many viewers — possibly a majority if the audience clears 100m — it will be their biggest exposure so far to the 2016 campaign.
很多觀衆（如果觀衆超過1億人的話，可能是大多數觀衆）在觀看這場辯論之前，或許都還沒有這樣認真地關注過2016年總統競選。
Newspaper readers may be shocked that anyone could have failed to make their minds up by now.
經常閱讀報紙的人或許會震驚於竟然有人到現在還未做出決定。
But most Americans are turned off from politics, which is why Mr Trump has come this far.
但是大多數美國人不關心政治，這也是特朗普能走到現在的原因。
If he can refrain from bullying Mrs Clinton, and steers clear of insulting large groups of Americans, the media will declare him victor.
如果他能剋制住不欺凌希拉里、不侮辱美國較大的羣體，媒體就會宣佈他獲勝。
History tells us that challengers tend to win the first of the three debates.
歷史告訴我們，挑戰者往往會贏得三場辯論中的第一場。
At which point panic would set in.
到那時，人們會開始恐慌。
During the 2008 campaign, Barack Obama’s aides talked of the liberal bed wetters who kept worrying he would lose to John McCain.
2008年大選期間，巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的助手談到了緊張得尿褲子的自由主義者(bed wetters)，後者當時一直擔心奧巴馬會輸給約翰•麥凱恩(John McCain)。
If Mr Trump holds his own next week, dodgy bladder control will go global.
如果特朗普下週能控制住不越到緊要關頭越出錯，那麼全世界就該緊張得不能自已了。
The pressure on Mrs Clinton is already acute.
希拉里已經承受了巨大的壓力。
Now try combining the world’s toughest political endurance test with recuperation from what used to be a killer disease. Doctors say it takes an able-bodied adult about two weeks to recover from pneumonia, after which they should take it easy.
在接受全世界最艱難的一場耐力測驗的同時，還要努力從一種曾經致命的疾病中恢復，你覺得這得有多難？醫生稱， 身強力健的成年人需要約兩週才能從肺炎中康復，在康復後也不應操勞。
Mrs Clinton, who is 68, was back on the campaign trail within six days of her diagnosis.
現年68歲的希拉里，在確診後6天便重新投入到競選活動中。
If she stumbles, coughs or sneezes in the coming days, the political results could be lethal.
如果她在未來數日裏跌倒、咳嗽或打噴嚏，政治後果可能是致命的。
Unfair though this is, Mrs Clinton has only herself to blame.
儘管這不公平，但希拉里只能怨自己。
Her instinctive secrecy is a spur to the type of conspiracy theory in which Mr Trump excels.
她本能地將事情祕而不宣，加劇了陰謀論，而陰謀論恰恰是特朗普所擅長的。
His surrogates have been peddling rumours that Mrs Clinton is suffering from Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s or worse.
特朗普的代理人一直在散佈謠言，稱希拉里患有帕金森氏症、阿茲海默症、甚至更嚴重的疾病。
These are low tactics from unscrupulous people.
這些都是寡廉鮮恥之人的低級伎倆。
Yet were Mrs Clinton to be diagnosed with something worse, could we trust her to tell anyone? Everything in Mrs Clinton’s history tells us that she will only disclose information when compelled to do so.
不過，如果希拉里被診斷出患有更嚴重的疾病，我們能相信她會告訴誰嗎？希拉里過去的一切所作所爲都告訴我們，她只會隱瞞真相，直到不得不公開。
It should be no surprise that voters are sceptical of her honesty.
選民對她的誠實度表示懷疑，這應該不令人意外。
If this is a contest over who is least unpopular, Mrs Clinton is capable of losing it.
如果有一場比誰最不招人討厭的競賽，希拉里有可能會輸。
All Mr Trump has to do is control his nastiness for seven weeks.
特朗普需要做的，只是在接下來的7周裏控制住別太下作。
For most people this would pose few difficulties.
對於多數人來說，這幾乎沒什麼難度。
But he is capable of falling off the wagon.
但是他有可能會故態復萌。
Then there is Mrs Clinton’s reputation for hanging out with rich people.
此外，還有希拉里與富人交好的名聲。
She was wise to say she will not be appearing at the annual Clinton Global Initiative in New York this week.
她稱自己不會出席本週在紐約召開的克林頓全球倡議(Clinton Global Initiative)年會，這是明智的。
But the Clinton Foundation’s philanthropic jamboree should not be taking place at all.
但是，克林頓基金會(Clinton Foundation)的慈善聚會壓根就不應該舉辦。
Just as the campaign is entering its final stretch, people will be reminded of all the pay-for-play allegations against the Clintons.
就在競選進入最後衝刺階段之際，這些活動將提醒人們克林頓夫婦受到的種種關於他們收錢辦事(pay-for-play)的指控。
Even without Mrs Clinton’s presence, three days of wealthy liberal self-congratulation is the last thing her campaign needs.
即使希拉里不露面，這場爲期3天的自由主義富人的自娛自樂慶祝活動，也是最無益於她競選的事情。
It was bad enough that she said at another gilded event in Manhattan last week that half of Mr Trump’s supporters were irredeemable racists.
不久前她在另一場於曼哈頓舉行的富人活動上稱特朗普的支持者是無可救藥的種族主義者，這已經夠糟了。
Whether true or not, candidates should never speak ill of the electorate.
無論是否屬實，候選人絕不應該說選民的壞話。
But the CGI event is no slip of the tongue.
但是，克林頓全球倡議事件不是一時口誤。
It does not matter that the Clintons have promised to disengage from the foundation if she wins.
克林頓夫婦承諾如果希拉里當選總統他們會脫離該基金會，這並不重要。
It is not what you say that counts.
重要的不是你說什麼，而是人們聽到什麼。
It is what people hear. What most people perceive is a Democratic candidate who spends half her time with billionaires.
多數人得到的印象是，這位民主黨候選人一半時間都跟億萬富翁們待在一起。
This, then, is the sickeningly gripping 50 days in store.
那麼，關於接下來這令人緊張得受不了的不到50天，情況就是這樣的。
Make no mistake: the US could be about to elect a proudly ignorant xenophobe as president.
別誤會：美國選出一位傲慢無知的排外主義者當總統的可能性是存在的。
Mrs Clinton is none of these things.
希拉里跟傲慢、無知和排外主義都不沾邊。
Yet she has allowed Mr Trump to turn this election into a nail-biter.
然而她卻讓特朗普得以把這場大選變成了一場膠着戰。
At this point the momentum is shifting towards him.
此刻，大勢正在向他傾斜。
Everything now hinges on Mrs Clinton’s past ability to find her best fighting self when her back is against the wall.
眼下一切都取決於希拉里能否像過去那樣，在無路可退之際迸發出最強戰鬥力。
