辯論:投資與賭博有界限嗎
When I was a PhD student, I would get emails about companies looking to hire mathematicians. Most were engineering firms or banks but occasionally something else appeared. One firm described itself as a “sports research consultancy”. Details were sparse, but it seemed to be searching for people with advanced statistical knowledge — and an interest in the gambling industry.
博士時，我時常會收到企業招聘數學家的郵件。多數都是工程公司或銀行，但是偶爾也會出現特別一點的。有一家公司將自己描述爲“體育研究諮詢公司”。具體情況說得非常簡略，但是當時它在找的，似乎是掌握高級統計知識並對博彩行業感興趣的人。
Scientific betting has traditionally been a secretive affair. In decades past, card counters wore disguises to avoid security, while roulette teams predicted spins with hidden computers. Top sports bettors were known by pseudonyms, if at all. Things are changing. Betting syndicates recruit openly and bring their methods to a wider audience. In the process, they are blurring the line between gambling and investing.
科學化的賭博以往一直是件偷偷摸摸的事。過去數十年，算牌手往往通過化妝來躲避賭場保安，而輪盤團隊則用隱藏起來的計算機來推斷輪盤最後的結果。過去，體育博彩的賭神使用的都是化名——如果他們有名號的話。如今的情況正在發生變化。專業賭博集團公開進行招聘，讓更多人知道他們的押注方法。在該過程中，他們模糊了賭博和投資之間的界線。
Sometimes it is circumstance that drives people to turn betting into a business. When maths students at Massachusetts Institute of Technology discovered a lottery loophole in 2005, they formed a company — Random Strategies Investments LLC. By the time the lottery was discontinued, they had wagered about $17m and brought in a pre-tax profit of $3.5m.
有時，是機會促使人們把賭博轉變爲一門業務。2005年，當美國麻省理工學院(MIT)數學系的學生髮現了一種彩票的漏洞時，他們成立了一家公司——隨機策略投資有限責任公司(Random Strategies Investments LLC)。到那種彩票被叫停時，他們已經累計押注約1700萬美元，賺到了350萬美元的稅前利潤。
The rise of sports analytics, combined with better data and computational power, has led to the creation of companies that specialise in betting on sport. Some operate behind closed doors but others promote their mathematical and statistical expertise to outside investors. They pitch sports betting as an alternative asset class, bringing potential for income and diversification, and is paying someone to predict sports results all that different from paying a fund manager to anticipate changes in commodity or stock markets?
體育分析的崛起，再加上數據和運算能力的提高，使得專門賭體育比賽結果的公司應運而生。一些公司祕密經營，其他公司則向外部投資者推銷自己在數學和統計方面的專業技能。它們宣稱對體育比賽結果的押注是一種另類資產類別，有可能帶來收益並使投資多元化。聘請專人預測體育比賽結果與聘請基金經理預測大宗商品或股市走向，真的有那麼不同嗎？
The sports betting market would be transformed if the US loosened its gambling laws. [bit of explanation here about what current situation is in US]At present, federal law largely prohibits sports betting, in effect outlawing online gambling. But billions of dollars are wagered illegally in the US on sport and Adam Silver, commissioner of the National Basketball Association, has argued that such betting should be legalised so it can be regulated and scrutinised. Even if it seems that investment and gambling should be distinct — one driven by skill and the other by luck — the realities and regulations suggest otherwise. Take spread betting. In the UK, betting on financial markets is classed as gambling and is tax exempt. In Australia it counts as an investment and is taxed.
如果美國放鬆與賭博相關的法律，體育博彩市場將徹底改變。目前，聯邦法律基本上禁止體育博彩，實際上將在線賭博認定爲非法。但是，美國非法進行體育博彩的資金達數十億美元。美國國家籃球協會(NBA)總裁蕭華(Adam Silver)認爲，應該將這類博彩合法化，以便監管和審查。儘管看上去投資和賭博應該是不一樣的（前者靠技術、後者靠運氣），但是從實際情況和監管法規來看，情況恰好相反。以點差交易(spread betting)爲例。在英國，押注金融市場被歸爲賭博，享受免稅。而在澳大利亞，這卻被算爲投資，需要納稅。
The relationship between flutters and finance also extends to theory. Many ideas central to financial mathematics began with betting. Wagers inspired the concepts of expected value and economic utility, and Karl Pearson, a major figure in developing statistics as a discipline, devised statistical hypothesis testing while studying dice and roulette.
賭博和金融之間的關係也擴展到理論中。金融數學的許多核心觀點都源自賭博。賭博啓發了期望值和經濟效用的概念。將統計學發展成爲一門學科的泰斗級人物卡爾•皮爾遜(Karl Pearson)，正是在研究擲骰子和輪盤時設計出了統計假設檢驗。
Finance has also inherited many of gambling’s psychological follies. Both industries are susceptible to the “Monte Carlo fallacy”, in which people believe that a series of repeated events, such as several coin tosses coming up heads, means a change “is due”. Another shared hazard is “gambler’s ruin”, which results from people increasing their stake after a win but not lowering it after a loss. Scientific bettors work hard to avoid such fallacies. Indeed, the degree of statistical rigour employed by leading betting syndicates is higher than that of some investment funds, particularly when it comes to “back testing” potential strategies using historical data.
金融也傳承了賭博中的很多愚蠢心理。兩個行業都容易受到“蒙特卡羅謬誤”(Monte Carlo Fallacy)的影響，即人們認爲某件事發生了很多次，比如投擲硬幣時多次出現人頭面朝上，就意味着結果“應該會”改變了。兩者共同面臨的另一種危險是“賭徒破產”(gambler’s ruin)現象。這是因爲人們在賭贏之後會加大賭注，但在賭輸後卻不會減少賭注。使用科學方法的賭徒會盡力避免犯這些錯誤。的確，領先的博彩集團比某些投資基金更嚴格遵循統計規律，特別是在利用歷史數據對潛在押注策略進行“回溯檢驗”方面。
The boundaries between luck and skill, and gambling and investment, are not defined by industry or activity, but rather by the person playing, and who they are playing against. The scientists who cracked blackjack and roulette in the 1960s and 70s eventually moved into finance, tired of the attention from casino security. To them, the divide was superficial. Like the modern teams tackling sports betting, they just saw another market, another set of inefficiencies, and another game to be beaten.
運氣與技巧、賭博與投資的界限，並不是由行業或行爲決定的，而是由行爲人以及對手是誰決定的。上世紀六七十年代破解了“二十一點”和輪盤的科學家，最終厭倦了賭場保安的“特殊關照”而進入了金融業。對他們來說，這種界限只是表面上的。就像如今研究體育博彩的團隊一樣，他們只是看到了另一個市場、另一套不嚴密的規則、以及另一個可以戰勝的遊戲而已。
