九個微小失誤，造成不朽歷史後果

We all make mistakes—it’s a part of being human. If we spill a glass of water on the rug, we just clean up the mess and get on with our lives. No big deal, right? Unfortunately, tiny mistakes can go a long way in making history happen. We can only guess how different things would be right now, were it not for a few choices that affected the whole world.

我們都會犯錯——這是人性的一部分。如果我們灑了一杯水在地毯上，那麼我們只是清理乾淨，接着生活。沒什麼大不了的，對吧？不幸的是，微小的失誤也可以導致歷史的發生。如果不是因爲它們是影響到整個世界的幾個選擇，我們只能猜測世界現在是多麼的不同。

9 The Wrong Turn That Started World War I

9、轉錯方向導致了第一次世界大戰的爆發

The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand of Austria was one of the biggest sparks to set off World War I—and it happened purely due to one very dumb mistake. Two assassination attempts happened on that fateful day. The first failed miserably because the duke’s chauffeur managed to deflect a bomb the assassins had thrown at their car. The resulting explosion wounded several bystanders and members of the duke’s entourage, but it left the duke and his wife unhurt. After escaping to safety, the duke insisted that he visit the victims of the bombing. On the way to the hospital, the chauffeur made a wrong turn, leading them straight into one of the assassins. Gavrilo Princip had been laying low inside a cafe when he saw the oncoming car carrying the duke and duchess. From a distance of just a few feet, Princip fired off two shots as the car tried to reverse. The bullets hit their mark. The duke and duchess were dead, and all hell broke loose shortly afterwards.

奧地利斐迪南大公（Archduke Ferdinand of Austria）遇刺是一戰爆發最重要的導火線之一——它卻是由一個特別愚蠢的失誤導致的。在那災難的一天，發生了兩回暗殺。第一次暗殺企圖慘遭失敗，因爲大公的司機成功避開了暗殺者投向車的炸彈。其引發的爆炸傷了幾個旁觀者和大公的隨從，但是大公和他的妻子卻沒有受傷。逃離到安全地點後，大公堅持要去拜訪爆炸中的受害者。在去醫院的路上，司機轉錯了方向，把他們直送到其中一位暗殺者那。當加夫裏洛•普林西普（Gavrilo Princip）看到載着斐迪南夫婦即將駛來的車時，他一直藏在一家咖啡廳裏。在只有幾尺遠的地方，普林西普在車設法調頭的時候連開兩槍。子彈擊中了他們的目標，皇儲夫婦一命嗚呼；不久之後，亂成一片。

8 Failure To Buy Rifles Single-Handedly Prolonged The Civil War

8、購買步槍失敗延長美了國內戰

Perhaps one of the greatest single mistakes that unnecessarily extended the American Civil War was making James Wolfe Ripley the Union’s chief of ordnance. A conservative man by all accounts, Ripley consistently blocked every move to purchase better arms for the Union, usually claiming they were too expensive. He especially resisted the idea of purchasing breech-loading rifles and thought that the Union’s smoothbore rifles worked well enough. They didn’t. One of Ripley’s greatest failings though, was his ego. One aide suggested that they buy a whole load of Enfield rifles that the British were planning to sell off for practically nothing. Ripley thought it unimaginable that America should go to their old enemy for help. He also predicted that the conflict would be over in a few months’ time. He would later regret that prediction as the Confederates purchased the British guns and used them to whoop the Union in the early battles of the war. As for Ripley, he was finally ousted in 1863—after a full two years of being a thorn in the Union’s side.

或許，導致美國內戰不必要的延長的其中一個最重要的失誤是選舉傑姆斯·沃爾夫·裏普利（James Wolfe Ripley）擔任聯邦軍械首領。大家公認的保守人士，裏普利始終阻止爲聯邦購買更好武器的行動，通常聲稱是因爲它們太貴了。他尤其抗拒購買後裝槍，認爲聯邦使用的無膛線步槍已經足夠好了。但是，事實證明，它們並沒有。裏普利最大的缺點之一就是自負。一位副官建議購買一批英國打算廉價拋售的恩菲爾德式步槍，幾乎是白送的。裏普利認爲美國向他們的宿敵求助是不可思議的。他還預言衝突幾個月內就會結束。隨後，他會後悔做出該預言的，因爲南部聯盟軍購買了英國的槍支，還在此戰爭的早期戰場中利用這些槍支向聯邦發出戰爭叫囂。最後，裏普利在1863年被撤職了——足足當了兩年聯邦的眼中釘。

7 Unsynchronized Watches Bogged Down The Allies’ Gallipoli Campaign

7、未同步的手錶使同盟國的加里波利之戰陷入僵局

In this disastrous World War I campaign, Allied forces tried to secure the strait along the Gallipoli peninsula to open a route with Russia. Instead, they got an extremely grueling eight-month static battle that saw hundreds of thousands of dead Allied and Ottoman forces. One stupefying reason why the Allies suffered such a high casualty rate was due to their simple failure of synchronizing their watches. In one operation during the campaign, Allied naval forces ended the bombardment a full seven minutes early, allowing the Turks plenty of time to regroup in their trenches. As a result, more than half of the 600 Australians sent to charge the enemy ended up dead or wounded as Turkish fire mowed them down. Eventually, the stalemate and high casualty rate forced the Allies to pull out from the campaign, resulting in a huge Ottoman victory. Speaking of wrong time . . .

在這災難性的第一次世界大戰中，同盟軍試圖攻佔加里波利半島海峽，以開拓通往俄羅斯的航線。相反，結果帶來的卻是極其辛苦的長達八個月的靜態戰爭，成千上萬的盟軍和奧斯曼軍人在這場戰爭中犧牲了。讓人瞠目結舌的是，同盟國傷亡率如此高僅僅是因爲他們的手錶時間沒有同步。在次戰役的一次行動中，盟軍海軍提前了整整七分鐘就完成了炮擊，這給土耳其足夠的時間重整戰壕。結果，派去進攻敵軍的600名澳大利亞人，由於土耳其炮火的掃射，一半以上都壯烈犧牲或者受傷。最後，僵局和高傷亡率迫使同盟軍退出戰爭，結果奧斯曼帝國取得巨大的勝利！談及錯誤時間……

6 Incorrect Time Zones Doomed The Bay Of Pigs Invasion

6、錯誤的時區註定了豬灣事件（The Bay of Pigs Invasion）的失敗

During the hugely disastrous Bay of Pigs campaign, Fidel Castro’s forces decisively defeated a sloppy invasion attempt by US-backed Cuban dissidents. During the battle, an American promise to provide air cover never materialized, largely due to neglect. Military and CIA planners forgot to factor in the time difference of one hour between Cuba and their airbase in Nicaragua. Not only did the bombers arrive too early, but they also failed to rendezvous with their escort fighters from the Navy. When it became clear that the invasion would fail, JFK stopped further direct American action. The aftermath—which also saw the deaths of four US pilots—greatly humiliated JFK, who was forced to take responsibility for the debacle. For what it’s worth, JFK gained experience in handling international incidents, a tool he would later need during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

在損失慘重的豬灣事件，菲德爾·卡斯特羅（古巴領導人——譯註）軍隊果斷擊敗了由美國支持的持不同政見的古巴人粗心的入侵行動。在此戰役中，美國承諾提供空軍掩護，但並沒有實現承諾，這主要是因爲疏忽。軍方和中情局規劃者沒有考慮到古巴和他們在尼加拉瓜的空軍基地之間存在一個小時的時間差異。轟炸機隊不僅到達目的地太早，而且還沒有和海軍派出的護航戰鬥機會合。當清晰意識到入侵行動會失敗時，肯尼迪（JFK）下令終止了美國的進一步直接行動。這次行動的後果——其中還死了四位美國飛行員——極大地羞辱了肯尼迪，他被迫承擔這次慘敗的責任。不管怎麼樣，肯尼迪也從中吸取了處理國際事件的經驗，有助於他後來處理古巴導彈危機。

5 Marie Antoinette’s Muddled Escape Attempt

5、瑪麗王后迷糊的逃亡計劃

The French Revolution would have taken a very different path had Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette managed to escape. They tried to, but that didn’t go so well, thanks to the queen’s many blunders. Originally, the king planned to secretly leave Paris alone and mobilize his allies for a counterrevolution. At the last minute, Marie Antoinette became adamant that they should travel together with the children. Instead of a small but fast vehicle, Marie Antoinette and her family traveled in a large, slow-moving carriage, complete with luxurious amenities. That, plus a few other mishaps—she got lost inside a maze for 30 minutes on the way to the rendezvous—ultimately led to the family’s downfall. Besides delaying the royal pair, the carriage’s aristocratic trappings attracted suspicion, especially from one eagle-eyed postmaster by the name of Jean-Baptiste Drouet. Some sources say Drouet recognized the king from a coin or banknote. Others say he saw an officer salute the carriage as it passed through his village. Regardless, he sped off to the next village and informed them of the king’s secret arrival. Sure enough, revolutionaries of that village stopped the carriage and accosted the royal family. The jig was up.

如果路易十六和瑪麗·安託瓦內特（法王路易十六的王后——譯註）成功逃亡，那麼法國大革命將截然不同。他們想方設法逃亡，卻因爲王后各種愚蠢的錯誤而沒有成功。起初，路易十六計劃獨自祕密離開巴黎，然後調動他的盟友來反革命。到最後一刻，瑪麗·安託瓦內特堅持認爲他們應該帶上孩子一起去。瑪麗·安託瓦內特和她的家人並沒有選擇小型卻快速的交通工具；相反，他們選擇大型的，緩慢的馬車，還配有豪華的設施。這些和其他一些不幸——她在去往會合地點的途中在迷宮裏迷路了大概30分鐘——最後導致了家族的衰敗。不僅耽擱了王室夫婦趕路，這輛馬車上的貴族的裝飾物還引起了別人的懷疑，尤其是目光銳利的驛站站長德魯埃（Jean-Baptiste Drouet）的懷疑。有些消息稱，德魯埃是憑藉一個硬幣或者一張紙幣認出了國王；其他消息稱，當馬車經過他村莊時，他看到有一位軍官向馬車致敬。不管怎麼樣，他迅速趕往下一個村莊，告知他們國王的祕密到來。毫無疑問，那個村莊裏的革命分子截停了馬車，向王室一家搭訕。到這裏，一切都爲完了。4 Rommel Celebrated His Wife’s Birthday On D-Day

4、隆美爾（Rommel）在二戰中盟軍進攻西歐日(D-Day)爲其妻子慶生

One of the most pivotal moments in World War II caught Erwin Rommel with his pants down. The Desert Fox, tasked by Hitler to defend the coast of France, had gone to Germany to celebrate his wife’s birthday on June 6. Due to weeks of enemy inactivity and bad weather, Rommel believed that an invasion—although imminent—was still some ways off. So he flew back to his wife and son on June 5. As a result, when D-Day rolled around, utter chaos reigned in the German defenses as the men were left without one of their finest tacticians. Rommel himself owned up to his mistake and uttered “How stupid of me” when he heard of the invasion. Although Rommel rushed back as quickly as he could, the damage was done. The Allies had strongly secured their beachheads, and nothing was going to stop them from going to still need to credit the Allies for tricking the Germans into second-guessing the invasion’s time and location. But the Germans would have stood a far better chance if Rommel had just settled for sending his wife a birthday telegram.

二戰中，其中一個關鍵時刻殺埃爾溫·隆美爾一個措手不及，使他狼狽不堪。6月6號，被希特勒分配去保衛法國海岸“沙漠之狐”（隆美爾是二戰的一位著名的德國陸軍元帥，通稱“沙漠之狐”——譯註）去了德國爲他的妻子慶生。由於幾周以來敵方都沒有動靜，天氣也不好，隆美爾相信入侵——儘管即將到來——不會那麼快到來。所以，6月5日，他飛回妻子和兒子的身邊。結果，當諾曼底登陸日到來了，德軍防禦一片混亂，因爲戰士們沒有一個好的戰術家領導。當隆美爾聽到入侵的消息，他承認錯誤說“我真愚蠢”。儘管隆美爾儘可能快地趕回，損失也已經造成了。同盟國已經牢固地佔領了灘頭陣地，已經無法阻止他們進入德國。我們仍需要把這歸功於同盟國，他們誘使德國人預測入侵的時間地點。但是如果隆美爾滿足於給他妻子發一份生日電報，德國本會有更大的成功機會。

3 An Unlocked Door Doomed Constantinople

3、 敞開的大門註定了君士坦丁堡的陷落

The Fall of Constantinople in 1453 had a huge rippling effect on the Western world. It effectively ended the Middle Ages, marked the start of Ottoman domination, and ushered in the Renaissance. We can wonder just how different the world would be right now if the Byzantines successfully defended Constantinople. Contrary to popular belief, the Byzantines actually had a pretty good chance of winning. Even though the Ottomans had the numerical advantage and the cannons, the thick and high walls surrounding Constantinople prevented them from quickly overwhelming the capital. If the Byzantines had held out long enough, help from their European allies could have turned the tide of battle. Besides, the defenders themselves were no pushovers and managed to inflict high losses on the invaders. Unfortunately, the Byzantines’ brave efforts were wasted due to a very critically dumb error: Someone forgot to close a gate. Ironically, this was the same gate the Byzantines used to retake their city from the Crusaders 200 years previously. According to Byzantine historian Doukas, after the Ottomans took the gate and raised their flag above its tower, chaos ensued. The defenders were now convinced that their city was doomed. Resistance faded shortly afterward and ended with the Ottomans finally taking Constantinople.

1453年，君士坦丁堡的陷落在西方國家引起了連鎖反應。它有效地結束了中世紀，標誌着奧斯曼帝國統治的開始，還迎接了文藝復興時代的到來。我們可以知道如果拜占庭人成功保衛了君士坦丁堡，這世界現在會是多麼的不同。與大衆相信的情況相反，實際上，拜占庭人勝算很大。儘管奧斯曼帝國在士兵數量和大炮上有優勢，君士坦丁堡周邊又高又厚的城牆使他們不能快速地攻陷首都。如果拜占庭人能夠堅持夠久，那麼來自他們歐洲同盟的幫助本來是可以扭轉戰場局勢的。另外，守衛者他們本身就不是容易被打敗的，他們設法讓侵略者遭受高損失。不幸的是，拜占庭人的英勇努力卻因爲一個非常非常小的失誤都付諸東流了：某人忘記關門了。諷刺的是，200年前，拜占庭人就是利用這個門從十字軍（the Crusaders）手中奪回了他們的城市。根據拜占庭歷史學家多卡斯（Doukas），奧斯曼帝國攻佔了這扇門，在塔樓上升起他們的國旗，混亂隨之而來。守衛者這會相信他們的城市是劫數難逃了。不久之後，抵抗就消失了；最後，奧斯曼帝國佔領君士坦丁堡。

2 Security Strictness Slayed Stalin

2、 嚴密的安保殺死了斯大林（ Stalin）

While the mystery of Stalin’s death is a magnet for conspiracy theories, his paranoia proved to be his greatest undoing. As with all dictators, Stalin was obsessed with his personal security. He forbade anyone from entering his room without his consent because he constantly feared an assassination. So when the man one day didn’t leave his room for his normal routine, his guards began to worry. If they entered without his permission, they could be imprisoned or executed. The same fate also awaited them if it turned out to be an emergency and they failed to help him. Even after they found the dictator in a helpless heap inside his room, his staff still feared him greatly. Doctors sent to help him could not stop their hands from trembling when they examined him. Four days later, the great dictator was dead, the victim of (apparently) a massive stroke.

雖然斯大林的死亡之謎引發陰謀論者的猜想，但是經過證實，他多疑的性格是毀掉他最主要的原因。和所有的獨裁者一樣，斯大林非常注重個人安全。他禁止任何人未經他允許就進入他的房間因爲他一直害怕遭到暗殺。所以，有一天當斯大林並沒有像平常一樣出門，守衛們就開始焦慮。如果他們未經允許就進入房間，他們可能會被收押或處死。但如果結果是突發事件，而他們並沒有去幫助斯大林，他們也面臨着同樣的命運。儘管後來守衛們發現斯大林癱倒在房間無法動彈，他們仍非常懼怕他。在診察的時候，被派來醫治斯大林的醫生們手一直忍不住在抖。四天之後，這位大獨裁者去世，（顯然）死於中風。

1 The Spy Who Fell Asleep And Lost His Papers

1、因睡着而丟失文件的間諜

The German diplomat Heinrich Albert, who happened to be the official paymaster of the World War I spy ring in America, took a nap one day in July 1915 while riding the subway. A sudden stop startled the man, and he quickly left the carriage—leaving behind a briefcase filled with subversive files. After he realized his mistake, he rushed back inside the train. Unfortunately, the briefcase had already been snatched up by Frank Burke, a Secret Service agent tailing Albert. The German chased the agent, but Burke managed to elude him by hopping onto a trolley. The US government, instead of officially confronting Germany, decided to preserve its neutrality by just leaking the documents to the press. The subsequent fallout resulted in the offending diplomats being shipped back to Germany, and it greatly swayed American public opinion even further toward the war. As for Albert, he was greatly rewarded for his bumbling efforts. He was made a secretary of state in the German Weimar Republic and later on established a prosperous law firm that represented American interests in Germany.

1915年7月的某一天，德國外交官兼美國一戰時期特務組織的官方出納員海因裏希· 艾伯特（Heinrich Albert）在坐地鐵的時候小睡了一會。車突然停下來，嚇了他一跳；然後他就匆忙離開了地鐵——落下了裝滿顛覆性文件的公文包。意識到自己的過失後，他匆匆趕回地鐵內。不幸的是，公文包已經被尾隨他的特工弗蘭克·伯克（Frank Burke）奪取了。他追趕特工，但是伯克跳上了一輛電車成功避開了他。至於艾伯特，憑他那無效的努力得到了極大的回報。他被任命爲德國魏瑪共和國的國務卿，後來還建立了一個繁榮的律師事務所，這代表了美國在德國的利益。