爲中國而生 蘋果手錶的祕密戰略

This post is in partnership with Time. The article below was originally published at .

本文爲與《時代》雜誌的合作內容，原文發表於。

In Apple CEO Tim Cook’s words, the Apple Watch is “incredibly beautiful.” But some are saying it’s “incredibly unnecessary.”

用蘋果公司CEO蒂姆o庫克的話說，蘋果手錶“美得驚人”，但也有人說，蘋果手錶“沒用得驚人”。

Apple followers haven’t been shy in arguing that the upcoming Apple Watch will be a flop. Dismissive reviews of Apple’s first wearable are plentiful (“a thick, ugly clunker,” “a very stupid idea“), while analysts’ fresh estimates of first-year sales have trended on the low side. Investors haven’t been too optimistic either:Apple’s stock fell 2% Tuesday, a day after it unveiled more Apple Watch details.

果粉們紛紛唱衰蘋果手錶。坊間充斥着大量負面評論（諸如“又厚又醜的破玩意兒”、“非常愚蠢的理念”等等），分析師們認爲蘋果手錶的第一年銷量或將非常慘淡。投資者也不是非常樂觀：在蘋果手錶發佈會次日，蘋果股價應聲下跌了2%。

But what few realize is that Apple has a 3.7 million square mile ace up its sleeve: China.

但人們卻忽視了一點：蘋果還有一個面積達960萬平方公里的龐大市場——中國。

It’s no secret that Chinese consumers love their Apple products. Chinese resellers and admirers alike traveled the world and lined up for days to sweep up Apple’s latest iPhone last fall. Some constructed iPhone 6 “undergarments” to bypass customs duties on the way home. One man even used 99 iPhone 6 units to propose to his girlfriend. (She said no.)

中國消費者喜愛蘋果產品並不是什麼祕密。去年秋天，中國二道販子和狂熱果粉奔襲全世界，排上幾天長隊只爲搶購iPhone 6的場景至今令人記憶猶新。有些水客爲了逃避關稅，在內衣褲裏都塞滿了iPhone 6。一名男子甚至用99部iPhone 6向女友求婚（女友拒絕了他。）

Now, with the Apple Watch heading to China on April 24, the country’s Apple fans have already begun generating outlandish headlines. A Guangzhou man was arrested this week for selling drugs in order to finance his Apple Watch, clearly unwilling to settle for one of many cheap knockoff Apple Watches fresh on China’s black market. Those counterfeits are good news for Apple—they’re an indication demand will be high for the real thing. Previous wearables, like Samsung’s Galaxy Gear, had never been popular enough to make it into China’s counterfeit market.

現在，鑑於蘋果手錶將於4月24日正式登陸中國大陸，中國果粉們已經開始製造各種荒誕不經的頭條新聞。本週，一名廣州男子因販毒被捕，而他鋌而走險的動機竟然是爲了賺錢買蘋果手錶——顯然他看不上近來各地紛紛涌現的“made in 華強北”的山寨貨。但對蘋果公司來說，山寨的泛濫其實是個好消息，這說明中國市場對正品蘋果手錶的需求極其旺盛。而此前的可穿戴設備，比如三星的Galaxy Gear，則從未享受過被山寨廠商仿冒的待遇。

Apple, then, is likely counting on its legions of Chinese fans to scoop up Apple Watches to help boost worldwide sales. But China is no back-up plan. In fact, given Apple’s loyal following in China, the Apple Watch could very well have been made for China.

因此，蘋果很可能要指望中國果粉大軍來給它刷全球銷量了。然而中國並不是蘋果手錶的“備胎”，事實上，由於中國有這麼多忠實的果粉，蘋果手錶很可能就是一款專爲中國設計的產品。

The Apple Watch’s biggest advantage in China is deceptively simple: Few Chinese consumers laugh when Apple touts the device as a luxury e became China’s top luxury brand for 2015, outranking labels like Louis Vuitton and Gucci. More recently, Apple’s status has risen as Chinese consumers of luxury goods prioritize functionality overostentatiousness—a taboo that China’s President Xi Jinping deplored as “unhealthy,” criticizing Chinese elites’ obsession with status symbols like Rolex watches.

蘋果手錶在中國的優勢也很簡單：當蘋果稱該設備是一款奢侈品時，中國消費者聽了很少會發笑。2015年，蘋果成爲中國的頭號奢侈品牌，其排名超過了LV和Gucci。近來，隨着中國奢侈品消費者從單純地炫富（連國家主席習近平也譴責中國精英愛買勞力士等奢侈品炫富的心態“不健康”）轉變爲更注重實用性，蘋果在中國奢侈品消費者心目中的地位也再度提升。

Even better for Apple is how much Chinese consumers value brand names in luxury goods. According to Digital Luxury Group’s (DLG) 2014 report, 73% of online searches for luxury watches are about brand names, almost twice the rate of Americans. Apple’s brand recognition could seal the deal for the Apple Watch in China—but it could also hurt sales in the U.S., where Apple is seen as a tech brand rather than a fashion label:

對蘋果來說，另一個利好消息是，中國消費者非常重視奢侈品的品牌。瑞士奢侈品研究諮詢機構DLG公司2014年發佈的報告顯示，有73%的中國人在線搜索名貴手錶時是按品牌名稱搜索的，這個比重幾乎是美國人的兩倍。單是蘋果的品牌認知度，就足以使很多中國人心甘情願地掏錢——不過品牌問題反過來卻會影響蘋果手錶在美國的銷量，因爲蘋果在美國一般被認爲是個科技品牌而不是時尚標籤。

All this will help ease sticker shock, too. While Americans will compare the Apple Watch’s $349-$17,000 price tag to the cost of consumer electronics, Chinese consumers are more likely to stack it up against luxury timepieces. The worldwide median price of a luxury watch is about $10,700, according to DLG. That means the Apple Watch Sport (starting $349) and Apple Watch (starting $549) are inexpensive by comparison, while the gold and silver Apple Watch Edition models that start at $10,000 aren’t crazy purchases. China’s luxury timepiece market is also growing rapidly, partially thanks to the rise in Chinese women’s incomes:

所有這些都有利於緩解高昂的售價給人帶來的痛感。美國人會把349美元到1.7萬美元的價格拿來與其它消費電子產品進行比較，但中國消費者則會把它與其它名貴手錶作對比。根據DLG公司的數據，全球奢侈品牌腕錶的中間價格是1.07萬美元。相比之下，起價349美元的Apple Watch Sport和起價549美元的Apple Watch都不算特別貴，而購買一款包金裹銀，起價1萬美元的Apple Watch Edition也不算特別瘋狂的舉動。另外，中國的奢侈品手錶市場一直在迅速增長，這一定程度上要歸功於近年來中國女性人均收入的上漲。

Apple Watch’s promise in China as a fashionable luxury item is already clear. When former supermodel Christy Turlington Burns appeared during Apple’s U.S. event Monday to explain how she’s using Apple Watch for fitness, critics called it an awkward, even irrelevant product placement — an iconic women’s advocatewearing a watch “skewed to geeky guys.” But when theApple Watch graced the cover of Vogue Chinaalongside China’s most famous model, Liu Wen, hardly anyone batted an eye. As Vogue China’s editor-in-chief described the difference, “We embrace new technology and digital products more easily than perhaps people elsewhere.”

作爲一款時尚奢侈品，蘋果手錶在中國顯然擁有非常光明的前景。上週一。當前美國超模克里斯蒂o特靈頓o伯恩斯現身蘋果發佈會，解釋她如何使用蘋果手錶健身時，很多人稱這是一次“尷尬甚至不搭調的代言”——作爲一名超模，代言這樣一款宅男專用產品，實在違合感太強。而當中國超模劉雯戴着蘋果手錶登上《Vogue服飾與美容》封面時，幾乎沒有人任何人站出來挑毛病。該雜誌中文版總編這樣描述這種差異：“我們比其他地方的人更容易接受新技術和新數碼產品。”

Of course, Apple has spent years laying the groundwork in China for a potential hit with the Apple Watch. It sealed a “watershed” deal with state-owned China Mobile in 2013 to ensure China’s largest mobile network supported iPhones, an agreement that was in the making as far back as in 2007 when the first iPhone launched. Apple also recently brought its iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus to China, which sport the larger screens Chinese users have long demanded. Apple shipped a record-breaking 74.5 million iPhones worldwide last quarter, and while Apple doesn’t breakdown shipments by country, UBS estimates that China now claims 36% of the iPhone market, surpassing the U.S. for the first time.

當然，蘋果多年來一直在中國潛心耕耘，想方設法地爲蘋果手錶鋪路。2013年，該公司與中國最大的國有運營商——中國移動達成了一項具有“分水嶺”意義的協議，以確保中國最大的移動網絡支持iPhone。而早在2007年，也就是第一代iPhone剛剛問世時，雙方就開始醞釀這項合作了。最近蘋果也將iPhone 6和iPhone 6 plus推向中國市場，這兩款產品搭載了中國用戶盼望已久的大屏。上個季度，全球iPhone銷量達到了創紀錄的7450萬部，儘管蘋果沒有披露按國別劃分的銷售數字，但據UBS公司預測，中國目前佔據iPhone市場的36%，首次超過了美國的份額。

And Apple has already linked the Apple Watch to China. The company’s March 9 event kicked off with a video showing the opening of a new flagship Apple Store in China, where the retail locations are set todouble by mid-2016. Later, Apple showed off the Apple Watch’s compatibility with WeChat, a wildly popular messaging app in China. It was a wise move, as Chinese users have expressed worry that Apple Watch’s screen is too small for the app.

此外，蘋果已經在有意地建立蘋果手錶與中國的聯繫。在3月9日蘋果發佈會的開場視頻中，就出現了中國一家蘋果旗艦店開張的畫面。到2016年年中，中國蘋果零售店的數量將達到目前的兩倍。隨後，蘋果還特意指出這款手錶完全可以與微信兼容——這個舉動非常明智，因爲已經有中國用戶表達了蘋果手錶的屏幕太小，恐怕難以兼容微信的擔憂。

So while Apple Watch’s relevance in the West may continue to be questioned, the wearable has a clear place in China. Given how lucrativeChina has been for Apple, whether or not China loves the Apple Watch could be precisely what makes or breaks the device initial reception.

因此，儘管蘋果手錶在西方的銷路或許依然存疑，但它在中國顯然有自己的市場。鑑於中國市場一直在爲蘋果公司貢獻鉅額利潤，中國用戶是否喜愛蘋果手錶將直接決定這款設備上市初期的市場表現。（財富中文網）