年七大不靠譜的商業科技預測
Whenever I talk to people about the future, I'm struck by their belief that it is knowable. The impression I get is that most people imagine the future like a book ending: already written and readable if you can just steal a quick look at the last few pages. What they find difficult is accepting that the pages aren't written yet. The future hasn't happened, hasn't even been planned--and cannot be known because it doesn't exist.
每次我跟人說起“未來”，我都被他們對“未來是可知”的這一想法嚇到。我的印象就是，大部分人都想象未來像書本一樣，有一個結局：已經寫好了、也可以讀取。你只要快速地窺一眼這本書的最後幾頁就能知道。他們很難接受這最後幾頁根本沒有寫完。未來還沒有發生、也沒有計劃好——也無法預知，因爲它們還根本不存在。So I don't know what will happen in 2014--and neither does anyone else. What I imagine, though, looks like this:
所以我不知道2014會發生什麼——誰也不知道。但在我的想象中，它會是這樣的：1. Technausea.
科技厭惡症。
Today's and tomorrow's technology sits on top of multiple layers, every one of which is changing and has to inter-operate with others. This makes our gadgets, the internet of things, phones and laptops unstable. And it makes consumers irritated. How many of your apps actually work--and actually make life easier, faster or more fun? I'd expect to see consumer cynicism grow, as delight is overtaken by disappointment. This will put pressure on hardware and software developers to deliver that most boring of qualities: reliability.
現今和未來的科技都基於多重技術，而每一種技術都在發生着改變、並和其他技術交互。這讓我們的科技產品，像是互聯網的東西、電話、筆記本等等變得不穩定，這同時也讓消費者感到厭惡。就說說你們手機裏的應用，有多少你是真正在用的？又有多少真正能讓你的生活變簡單、變快捷、變得更有趣？我認爲消費者對此的嘲諷情緒會上升，科技帶給他們的愉悅感會被失望所取代。這會給硬件和軟件的開發者造成壓力，從而讓他們追求最無趣的產品品質：穩定性。2. Mobile overtakes the web.
移動端取代網頁端。Most technology developers are seeing app use grow and web use decline. That means companies have to have strong, fast, meaningful mobile platforms and those that don't lose customers.
大部分的科技從業人員都認爲移動應用會發展、而電腦應用會減弱。這意味着企業都需要強勁、快捷和實用的移動平臺，不重視這點的企業必然會失去消費者。3. Tablets meet viruses.
平板電腦的病毒出現。As PC use declines, infecting them with viruses just won't be as much fun any more. I'd expect to see malware, worms and viruses jump onto tablets and phones. As a consequence, we will all have to start protecting our devices more assiduously.
隨着PC端的消亡，再用病毒攻擊他們就沒那麼有趣了。我認爲惡意軟件、蠕蟲病毒和其他病毒都會很快入侵平板和手機。結果就是，我們要更賣力地保護自己的設備。4. Manufacturing won't save the economy.
製造業也救不了經濟。I'm pleased to see manufacturing jobs returning to the U.S., but I don't expect the manufacturing industry to have the galvanic effect on the economy that many hope for. Why? Because automation will sharply erode the number of jobs any factory requires. The disappearance of blue-collar and entry-level jobs is already a problem, and that problem will grow.
我很高興看到製造業的工作機會又重回美國市場，但我不認爲它會像很多人期望的那樣，產生原電池效應拯救經濟。爲什麼？因爲製造業中的很多工作機會都被機械化的自動生產取代了。藍領階層和基礎職位的消失已經成了一個問題，而這個問題還將繼續擴大。5. Women keep rising.
女性地位繼續上升。The appointment of Inga Beale to run Lloyds of London and of Mary Barra to run General Motors marked an encouraging end to 2013. Progress for women in the coming year will continue to be too little and too slow, but you should expect to see women in positions of power and influence everywhere. Even Japan is starting to try to get women into work.
Inga Beale出任倫敦勞埃德保險公司CEO，Mary Barra 出任通用汽車高級副總裁，這些都爲2013年的女性地位寫下了濃墨重彩的一筆。接下來的一年，女性地位還將繼續發展，但進展會緩慢而微小，但你一定能隨處看到女性的權力和影響力。再怎麼說，就連日本都開始鼓勵女性工作了呢。6. Gene therapy comes good.
基因療法發展良好。After decades of promise, new gene therapies are starting to deliver real results. Like all new therapies, communicating accurately how and where it works will prove as challenging as the treatment itself.
在經歷了長達幾十年的許諾後，新的基因療法終於開始有了一些真實的好成果。不過就像所有的新型療法一樣，基因療法需要向公衆準確地傳遞如何治療以及治療背後的原理，這和療法本身一樣具有挑戰性。7. Trust will remain the single most critical business issue.
信任感依然會是商業領域中唯一且最關鍵的問題。Do your customers trust you? Do they know what you do with their data and are they happy with it? This will be a major issue not just for the N.S.A., Microsoft and Google. Nor will Google Glass be the only product to provoke debate. Trust reduces the cost of doing business and those who don't build relationships of trust with their partners, suppliers and customers will feel the pinch.
你的消費者信任你嗎？他們知道你都拿他們的個人信息幹嘛去了嗎？你這麼做他們高興嗎？這不僅僅是美國國家安全局、微軟和谷歌的問題。谷歌眼鏡也不會是唯一一個引發爭論的產品。如果你和你的顧客之間有足夠的信任，這會降低你做生意的成本；反之，那些不重視與合夥人、供應商和消費者建立信任關係的企業則會爲之所累。
