不靠譜的預言滿天飛 最醜陋的總統競選
In a season of discredited predictions, here is a safe one. The presidential debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will shatter all audience records. Their draw will bear no relation to the substance of the issues. Tens of millions will tune in to watch our age’s most trigger-happy insulter denigrate one of the world’s most famous women.
在不靠譜的預言滿天飛的季節，有一條比較保險的預言。希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)和唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的總統競選辯論將打破一切觀衆人數紀錄。他們的辯論的吸引力與所辯問題的重要性完全無關。數千萬人將爲了收看我們這個時代最愛亂開槍的攻擊者炮轟全世界最著名的女性之一而打開電視。
In ancient Rome gladiators slaughtered barbarians to keep the people entertained. In this case however, the barbarian has a shot at becoming emperor. Whether or not he succeeds, US democracy will never be the same.
在古羅馬，角鬥士屠殺野蠻人以娛樂觀衆。不過，在當前這場角逐中，野蠻人有機會成爲皇帝。無論他能否成功，美國民主將不同於過去。
What happens in the debates will offer Mr Trump’s best chance of gaining the prize. By any normal measure, Mrs Clinton’s campaign is light years ahead of her rival. Her fundraising machine is running at full pelt, raising close to $300m so far — nearly five times Mr Trump’s total. Her voter registration operation is pounding the streets in the key swing states. Mr Trump does not yet have a ground game worth the name. Mrs Clinton’s Brooklyn headquarters is the size of a small corporation with hundreds of full-time staff. Mr Trump’s Manhattan operation consists of a small circle of loyalists with scant electoral experience among them.
辯論將給特朗普提供一次入主白宮的最佳機會。以任何正常衡量標準來看，希拉里的競選實力都甩出特朗普數光年的距離。她的籌款機器正在全速運轉，截至目前已經籌得了將近3億美元——幾乎是特朗普的5倍。在關鍵的搖擺州，大街上隨處可見她的選民登記服務。特朗普目前尚沒有名副其實的實地工作。希拉里在布魯克林的競選總部相當於一家小公司的規模，擁有數百名全職員工。特朗普在曼哈頓的競選總部只有一小羣缺乏競選經驗的忠誠人士。
In their view Mr Trump is David to Mrs Clinton’s Goliath. Instead of a sling he holds a Twitter account. His main weapon is an ability to suss out his opponent’s rawest nerves and mercilessly exploit them. Some commentators have dismissed Mr Trump as a schoolyard bully who hurls insults to get his way.
在他們看來，如果說希拉里是巨人歌利亞(Goliath)的話，特朗普就是與之對陣的大衛。只不過他的武器不是投石器，而是Twitter賬戶。他的法寶是挖出對手的最大痛點，並毫不留情加以利用。一些評論人士視特朗普爲隨心所欲亂罵一氣的校園惡霸而對他嗤之以鼻。
This is an apt summary of his moral character. It is also a dangerously complacent underestimate of his skills. Everything we have learnt from the 2016 campaign is that voters value facts, logic and consistency much less than we may have supposed. Mr Trump’s campaign is built on that insight. Civility is overrated. Insults work.
這恰當地總結了特朗普的道德品質。但這也危險而自大地低估了他的能力。我們從2016年美國總統競選中學到的全都是，選民重視事實、邏輯和一致性的程度遠低於我們原本的設想。特朗普的競選就基於這條認識。彬彬有禮的重要性被高估了。出口傷人很管用。
Could they carry him all the way to the White House? The standard rule of US presidential campaigns says that the candidates themselves should avoid attacking their opponent’s character — such dirty work is best left to surrogates.
那些罵人話能把他一路送進白宮嗎？美國總統競選的準則稱，候選人本人應該避免攻擊對手的人格——這樣的髒活最好留給代理人。
Mr Trump has upended that logic. Barely a day passes when he does not describe Mrs Clinton in language that has no precedent in modern US politics. One moment Mrs Clinton is an enabler to a rapist husband, the next she is a crook who deserves to be in jail. Her family bribed and killed its way to office in the 1990s. If she cannot satisfy her husband, how can she satisfy America?
特朗普顛覆了這種邏輯。他幾乎每天都會用美國當代政壇從未出現過的語言來形容希拉里。一會兒，希拉里是其強姦犯丈夫的幫兇；一會兒，她又成了該進監獄的騙子。上世紀90年代，她一家通過賄賂和不擇手段入主白宮。如果她連自己的丈夫都滿足不了，如何能夠滿足美國？
Mrs Clinton is gingerly following suit. Last week she called Mr Trump a fraud whose campaign consisted of a “series of bizarre rants, personal feuds and outright lies”. He was trying to scam American voters in the same way Trump University had ripped off thousands of gullible customers.
希拉里正在小心翼翼地效仿。上週，她稱特朗普是騙子，他的競選包含了“一系列奇葩的咆哮、個人恩怨和赤裸裸的謊言”。他試圖欺騙美國選民，就像“特朗普大學”(Trump University)欺詐數千名輕信於他的客戶一樣。
Mrs Clinton has reams of evidence to back her claims. Yet she has crossed a line she cannot uncross. If you get into a street fight with a thug, be sure to have every weapon to hand. If you use your fists, he will put on his knuckle duster. If you land a blow, he will pull out a knife. Mrs Clinton is playing on Mr Trump’s territory. He will always come back with something worse.
希拉里擁有大量可以支撐其控訴的證據。不過，她已經越過了她無法不越過的界線。如果你陷入了與惡棍的街頭混戰，那麼你要保證手中握有所有的武器。如果你用拳頭，他會戴上他的指節鋼環。如果你掄起一拳，他會拔出匕首。希拉里眼下就在特朗普的地盤上出招。他總會用更惡劣的手段回擊。
There are still five months to go before polling day yet the 2016 race is already a contest between “Crooked Hillary” and “Trump the Fraud”. Peak ugliness is still some way off. Can Mrs Clinton handle the inevitable escalation? Can democracy survive such nastiness unscathed?
距離選舉日還有5個月的時間，但是2016年美國總統大選已經成了“不誠實的希拉里”與“騙子特朗普”之間的較量。最醜陋的時刻還未到來。希拉里應付得了不可避免的惡鬥升級嗎？民主可以毫髮無傷地挺過如此的不堪嗎？
The answer to the first is disturbingly ambivalent. Mr Trump has barely scratched the surface of Mrs Clinton’s potential conflict of interest with Bill Clinton’s global foundation, an outfit that takes millions of dollars from foreign governments and business figures that has no precedent in US politics.
第一個問題的答案存在令人不安的矛盾。特朗普幾乎只觸碰到了希拉里與比爾•克林頓(Bill Clinton)全球基金會潛在利益衝突的皮毛。該基金會從外國政府和商界人物獲取了鉅額資金，這在美國政治中史無前例。
Friends of Mrs Clinton have urged her to say she would close down the foundation if she is elected president. She is clearly reluctant to do so. The longer she delays what would be a wise and necessary pledge, the more Mr Trump will bolster his “crooked Hillary” moniker.
希拉里的朋友敦促她承諾，如果當選總統，她會關閉該基金會。她顯然不願意這樣做。她越是遲遲不作出明智而必要的承諾，特朗普就越有底氣喊出“不誠實的希拉里”的綽號。
Second, at some point in the coming weeks, the Federal Bureau of Investigation will recommend whether to indict Mrs Clinton and her underlings for having used a private server for official communications.
第二，在未來數週的某一時刻，聯邦調查局(FBI)將就是否因希拉里及其手下使用私人服務器進行官方交流而起訴他們給出建議。
If the FBI merely slaps Mrs Clinton on the wrist it would still offer material for Mr Trump to allege a cover-up. If President Barack Obama’s Department of Justice buries an FBI recommendation to indict, someone will leak it. The resulting scandal could quickly engulf the campaign.
如果FBI只是對希拉里略施小懲，仍然會給特朗普以口實，稱官方掩蓋事實。如果美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的司法部壓下FBI的起訴建議，會有人泄露出去。由此帶來的醜聞會很快淹沒整個競選。
Mrs Clinton is a weak candidate with serious vulnerabilities. Having searched vainly for a positive theme, she has settled on a negative one. Mr Trump is too dangerous to be president. She is right about that. Yet she has also chosen to fight on his terms.
希拉里不是一位強大的候選人，她有着嚴重的弱點。在苦尋正面主題徒勞無獲後，她最終選定了負面主題。特朗普是一個太過危險的人物，不應成爲總統。這一點她說對了。但她也錯誤地選擇了用特朗普的方式去作戰。
All the conventional measures say Mrs Clinton ought to win by a landslide. Yet my gut says things may not be that simple. Moreover, her victory could quickly look hollow. It will be hard to govern a country so bitterly divided by personal hatred.
所有的傳統衡量標準都表明希拉里應該以壓倒性的優勢勝出。不過，我的直覺告訴我，事情或許沒那麼簡單。此外，她的勝利可能很快會看起來毫無價值。治理一個被個人仇恨搞得四分五裂的國家，是一件困難的事。
When Mrs Clinton refers to her husband’s 1990s presidency, she often asks: “Which part of peace and prosperity didn’t you like?” Mr Trump’s answer is clear: You, your husband and quite possibly your daughter too. It is in anticipation of this that record audiences will be tuning in.
當希拉里提到她丈夫在上世紀90年代的總統任期時，她常會問：“和平和繁榮中的哪個部分讓你不喜歡？”特朗普的答案很明確：你、你的丈夫、很可能還有你的女兒。創紀錄數量的觀衆會因爲期待看到這樣的場面去收看他們的辯論。
