微軟收購諾基亞的另一種解讀
Imagine it's 1999. Scratch that, it's 2006.
想象現在是1999年。不對，想象它是2006年。The computer in your office is made by ... well, it doesn't matter who it's made by. Unless you are in a creative profession, that computer is run on Microsoft Windows. And the phone in your pocket is made by Nokia (NOK), or -- if you're feeling stylish -- Motorola. Apple (AAPL) made your mp3 player (yeah, back when we still called them mp3 players), and Samsung made your display screen, or your TV screen, or both.
你辦公室裏電腦的牌子是……好吧，牌子並不重要。除非你從事的是創造性職業，否則你的電腦上運行的肯定是微軟（Microsoft）的Windows操作系統。而你口袋裏的手機是諾基亞（Nokia）的，或者如果你趕時髦的話，就是摩托羅拉（Motorola）的。你的mp3播放器是蘋果（Apple）造的（是的，在那個時候我們還稱呼它們爲mp3播放器），而顯示器或（和）電視機屏幕，則是三星（Samsung）造的。Just close your eyes and go back to that crazy 2006 mindset (here's a link to help, if you need it). Apple was killing it on iPods and iTunes, not in its original mission of personal computers. Google (GOOG) was just a search engine, a filthy rich search engine. Nokia still ruled mobile phones, although Motorola's Razr owned popular culture. And Microsoft (MSFT)? It was still Microsoft, the grating white noise of personal computing that Bill Gates designed the company to be.
閉上眼睛，回到那個瘋狂的2006年的狀態（如果需要幫助回憶，請點擊這裏）。這一年，蘋果大獲成功，創造奇蹟的是iPods和iTunes，而不是個人電腦這個最初的使命。谷歌（Google）還只是一個搜索引擎，一個超級有錢的搜索引擎。雖然摩托羅拉的Razr手機代表了流行文化，但諾基亞仍統治着手機領域。而微軟？它還是那個微軟，那個正如比爾•蓋茨構想的，在個人電腦上發出刺耳白躁聲的公司。
In the seven years since, so much has changed, which in the tech world isn't notable. What's strange is how it changed. Apple's mp3 player mutated into a mobile phone that changed everything. And it mutated again into the iPad, changing the personal computer. Yet somehow Samsung sold more smartphones using an operating system powered by, of all companies, Google.
此後七年來，許多事發生了變化，不過這在科技界算不上大不了的事。讓人覺得奇怪的是，這些變化是怎樣發生的。蘋果的mp3播放器發生突變，一下成了手機，改變了一切；進而它又突變成爲iPad，顛覆了個人電腦。而三星的智能手機卻莫名其妙地賣得更好了，使用的還是谷歌的操作系統。And Motorola? Its mobile-device business was bought by Google. And Nokia? Its core devices business has been bought by Microsoft. The software companies began to eat the hardware companies because they needed to act like Apple, which married software to hardware ... oh, three decades ago. And search ate Motorola smartphones. And Windows consumed Nokia smartphones. And Samsung, the maker of those excellent TV screens in 2006, sat there sticking its tongue out at everyone else.
至於摩托羅拉？它的移動設備業務已經被谷歌收購了。而諾基亞？微軟買下了它的核心設備業務。軟件公司開始吞併硬件公司，因爲它們要表現得跟蘋果一樣，成爲軟硬件結合的公司……哦，不過蘋果在三十年前就這麼做了。因此，搜索公司收購了摩托羅拉的智能手機，Windows收購了諾基亞的智能手機。至於三星，這家在2006年就以生產優質屏幕而大獲成功的生產商，坐在那向所有其他公司吐舌頭。And no one -- no great master of the chess board that is the technology landscape -- saw this coming. Maybe one part of it, yes, but not all of it. Because if you live in the past or the present, none of it could possibly make sense. This is all about a bunch of wild guesses about the future.
不過，沒有人——科技格局棋盤上沒有哪位大師——預見到了這樣的局面。也許有人看到了其中的一部分，但都不是全貌。因爲如果你只是活在過去或現在，這樣的發展對你而言都說不通。這都只是一些關於未來的胡亂猜想。So what are we to make of Microsoft and Nokia? In the past day or so, there has been so much to say. Opinions on the deal run the gamut from approval to scoffing to the purely perplexed. (Mostly scoffing, however.) But how are we really to know? The evolution of the mobile web has surprised longtime web observers the same way the desktop web surprised everyone involved with the tech industry that preceded it. Only, in some ways, the mobile web has offered even more surprises.
那麼，我們要怎麼理解微軟和諾基亞呢？過去的一天裏，到處都在討論他們。對於這項交易的觀點，從贊成、嘲笑到純粹摸不着頭腦，層出不窮。（不過大多數持嘲笑態度。）但是我們真的懂多少呢？正如桌面網站當年出乎所有頂尖技術產業內人士的意料一樣，移動互聯網的演進也令長期研究網絡的人士感到吃驚。只不過移動網絡在一些方面帶來的驚訝甚至更多。People who in 2006 couldn't predict what 2013 would bring to tech giants like Microsoft, Google, Apple, Samsung, Nokia, and Motorola are now confidently tweeting the future of Microsoft and Nokia. People who could make no good sense of Google-Motorola two years ago (I'd wager Larry Page was among them) have a sure view of where Microsoft-Nokia will go. And good for them.
那些在2006年無法預見2013年會給像微軟、谷歌、蘋果、三星、諾基亞和摩托羅拉這些科技巨頭帶來什麼的人，正在有十足把握地用Twitter評論着微軟和諾基亞的未來。兩年前無法理解谷歌和摩托羅拉的人們（我打賭當時的拉里•佩奇也是其中一位），現在對微軟和諾基亞將怎樣發展已經有了確定的觀點。這對他們來說是好事。Yes, this deal may very well amount to tying two sinking bricks together, etc. And both Microsoft and Nokia face uphill battles. But at the same time, in the early days of September 2013, the only honest analysis you can give is that a mobile web everyone saw coming yielded a competitive landscape few expected. And if we can't foresee which company will be on top in another several years, the best we can do is look at similar deals that have happened in recent years.
是的，這項交易很可能被當成是把兩個下沉的磚塊綁在一起，或者類似的說法。而且，微軟和諾基亞都面臨着艱苦的戰鬥。但同時，在2013年9月初，你能給出的唯一誠實的分析是，一個每個人都看到即將到來的移動網絡，引出了一個很少有人預見到的競爭格局。而且，如果我們無法預見在未來幾年裏哪家公司將領先，我們能做的最多是參考近年來發生的類似交易。Which brings us to Google's purchase of Motorola, announced a little more than two years ago. At the time, people struggled to understand the sense of it. People speculated, as they do with Microsoft's Nokia investment, it had to do with patents. That Google would simply spin offMotorola's manufacturing operations. At the time, it seemed like the most likely explanation.
這就使我們去看兩年多前宣佈的，谷歌對摩托羅拉的收購。當時，人們難以理解這麼做的原因。人們推測這可能與專利有關，微軟對諾基亞的投資可能也是如此。人們認爲谷歌可能會簡單地對摩托羅拉的製造業務進行分拆。當時，這看上去像是最有可能的理由。But Larry Page, Google's new CEO, took a different direction. He held onto the Motorola devices that had been outmoded by Apple's iPhone. Although Motorola has been a drag on Google's earnings since then, the move seems prescient now. Software hasn't just supplanted hardware in the past decade. It needs hardware as an ancillary business. Microsoft's unexpected introduction of the Surface underscored that idea. And now its Nokia deal makes it seem that much more inevitable.
但谷歌的新CEO拉里•佩奇選擇了不一樣的方向。他保留了摩托羅拉被蘋果的iPhone趕超的產品。雖然摩托羅拉一直在拖累谷歌的收益，但現在來看他的這一招似乎有先見之明。過去的10年裏，軟件還未能完全取代硬件，它仍需要硬件作爲一項輔助業務。微軟出人意料地推出Surface平板電腦正彰顯了這一概念。而如今，它與諾基亞的交易使這一概念顯得更加確定。In other words, many companies can produce software on their own, but once you get big enough, you need hardware in the mix to stay on top of the game. The old cliché that the line between hardware and software was blurring has become an industry maxim. Software giants are doubling as hardware companies -- Google 2010 (Motorola), Microsoft 2012 (Surface) and 2013 (Nokia). Others going it alone -- like Amazon (AMZN) and Samsung -- will have to adapt. Still others, like Apple (early 1980s), took this route years ago.
換言之，許多公司都能夠自己生產軟件。不過，一旦你的公司規模足夠大，你就需要引入硬件，以保持在行業裏的頂尖地位。硬件與軟件之間的界線越來越模糊，這一陳詞濫調已經成爲了一條行業準則。軟件巨頭正在兼飾硬件公司的角色：谷歌在2010年收購摩托羅拉，微軟在2012年推出Surface平板電腦、在2013年收購諾基亞。其他單打獨鬥的公司，如亞馬遜（Amazon）和三星，它們不得不適應這一趨勢。還有另一些公司，如20世紀80年代初期的蘋果，多年前就走上了這條路。The mobile revolution at the center of technology innovation today may be protean and hard to predict, but one thing is certain: The old lines -- like what is a PC and what is a portable device, or what is a software company and what is a hardware maker -- are dissolving. Yes, Microsoft and Nokia may be several years late to this game, but at least they're there.
正處在如今技術創新中心的移動革命可能是千變萬化、難以預測。但有一件事是肯定的：以前的界線——如電腦和便攜設備之間的界線，或是軟件公司和硬件廠商的界線——正在消溶。是的，在這場遊戲中，微軟和諾基亞可能已經晚了幾年，但至少它們現在加入了遊戲。And this mobile game isn't finished offering up its surprises.
而這場移動遊戲帶來的驚喜還遠未結束。
