遍地內幕: 戴爾競價事件回放, 那些不爲人知的事情
Dell Inc. (DELL) today filed a proxy statement, detailing the process leading up its its $24.4 billion buyout proposal from CEO Michael Dell and private equity firm Silver Lake Partners. The proxy also includes details from the company's recent "go-shop" period, which resulted in nonbinding indications of interest from The Blackstone Group (BX) and Carl Icahn.
上週五，戴爾公司（Dell）發佈了股東簽署的委託書。委託書詳細闡述了首席執行官邁克爾?戴爾和私募基金公司銀湖資本（Silver Lake Partners）聯手開出的總價高達224億美元的收購要約的出爐過程。它還包括了該公司近期接受“詢價”的詳情，這輪詢價後，戴爾獲得了黑石集團（Blackstone Group）和卡爾?伊坎不具約束力的投資意向。The entire package is 274 pages long, and certainly would make a good Friday night read if you're an M&A junkie (or, more specifically, a lonely M&A junkie). For the rest of you, here is a breakdown of the more interesting cuts:
這份文件足有274頁之多。如果你是個併購迷（或者說的確切點，是個沒啥朋友的併購迷），那它會是你週末晚上的絕佳讀物。而對其他人來說，看看我們爲大家摘取的一些精華就夠了：Inception: The first group to approach Michael Dell about a possible buyout was Southeastern Asset Management, the company's largest outside shareholder which has said it plans to vote against the current proposal. That was last June. The following month, a representative of Silver Lake approached Michael Dell at an industry conference to suggest the two sit down. The proxy does not say which industry conference, but I'm 99.9% certain it was Fortune Brainstorm Tech in Aspen (where Michael Dell and Silver Lake's Egon Durban both spoke). Michael Dell soon would reach out to another private equity firm (believed to be KKR) for advice, before formally advising Dell's lead independent director, Alex Mandl, on August 14. Three days later the entire board was informed and began putting M&A infrastructure in place -- including the creation of a special committee.
發端：最早接觸邁克爾?戴爾，表示有意收購的集團是東南資產管理公司（Southeastern Asset Management），但它最大的外部股東表示反對這一提案。這是去年6月的事了。7月，銀湖資本的一位代表在一個行業會議上找到邁克爾?戴爾，建議兩家公司坐下來商談。委託書並未說明這是在哪次行業會議上，但我敢打包票，那就是阿斯彭舉辦的“《財富》頭腦風暴技術大會”（the Fortune Brainstorm Tech conference）（當時邁克爾?戴爾和銀湖資本的埃貢?德班都做了發言）。此後不久，邁克爾?戴爾就去請教另一傢俬募基金了（據信是KKR集團）。到了8月14號，他又將這一意向正式通報了戴爾重量級的獨立董事阿歷克斯?曼德爾。三天後，董事會全體接到了通知，同時開始搭建併購的基礎架構——包括籌建一個特別委員會。
Financial mismanagement: The driving force behind the special committee seemed to be less that Michael Dell wanted to buy Dell, and more that Dell management was serially incapable of accurately forecasting company performance. For example, on August 21 the company reported quarterly earnings that were around $300 million less than internal management projections. Overall, Dell's revenue came in significantly below management projections for seven straight quarters and, save for one quarter, below consensus analyst estimates. Things got so bad that, at one point, the special committee asked Boston Consulting Group -- which already was advising on strategic alternatives -- to provide independent financial analysis of the company's prospects.
財務管理不善：成立這個特別委員會的主要動力似乎不是來自邁克爾?戴爾購買戴爾公司的意向，而更多是因爲戴爾的管理層一再無法準確預測公司的業績。比如，8月21日公司報出的季度營收要比公司管理層的內部預測要少了約3億美元。總的來說，戴爾的營收已經連續七個月顯著低於管理層的預期，而且除了一個月之外，還普遍低於分析師的預測。情況糟得無以復加，結果特別委員會只好一度請來了波士頓諮詢集團（Boston Consulting Group）——該集團已經爲戴爾的替代性戰略提供諮詢了——對公司的財務前景開展獨立分析。To be honest, it's kind of a wonder that CFO Brian Gladden still has his job. Moreover, if Blackstone Group were to launch a hostile bid, this financial information could be its most effective defense (i.e., current management -- including Michael Dell -- is unfit to run the business). Of course, that would assume Blackstone would be willing to risk its reputation on such an offer, and that it has the financial resources to replace the equity Michael Dell is rolling over as part of the Silver Lake deal (not to mention Microsoft's $2 billion loan). Oh, and that it has another CEO in place. Again, the chances of a formal Blackstone bid keep getting smaller the more I think about them.
說實在的，首席財務官布萊恩?格萊登還能保住自己這個飯碗也真算奇蹟了。再者，假如黑石集團真打算髮起惡意收購，這個財務信息可能會成爲它最有效的防禦手段（比如，現任管理層——包括邁克爾?戴爾本人——不適合掌管戴爾公司業務）。當然，前提是黑石願意爲這個出價甘冒名聲被毀的風險，而且能拿得出這麼多錢來代替邁克爾?戴爾重新投入銀湖資本交易的股份（更別提微軟公司（Microsoft）那20億美元的借款了）。噢，它還有另一個準備走馬上任的首席執行官呢。我越想越覺得，黑石想正式出價的可能性微乎其微。This section also must be the toughest for Dell to swallow as a company, since it may make fidgety customers and employees even more nervous. On the other hand, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) may be having a good laugh at its Austin rival's expense.
這部分也肯定是戴爾最難接受的，因爲這可能會讓它本已焦慮不安的客戶和員工變得更加緊張。另一方面，惠普公司（Hewlett-Packard）可能也會對自己這位同在奧斯汀的對手的大筆開銷看笑話。Pricing: Silver Lake originally proposed a purchase price range of $11.22-$12.16 per share, assuming that Michael Dell would roll his shares into the deal. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (KKR) also put in a bid for $12-$13 per share, assuming Michael's shares plus those held by Southeastern -- plus a $500 million additional investment from Michael. Important to note that Southeastern was unaware of the KKR offer, and thus was ignorant of its hypothetical role.
定價：銀湖最初提出的收購價是每股11.22-12.16美元，並假定邁克爾?戴爾會把自己的股份也投入這筆交易中。KKR集團的出價也是每股12-13美元，並假定邁克爾的股份會加上東南資本持有的那些股份——加上邁克爾所做的5億美元追加投資。值得一提的是，東南資本對KKR的出價並不知情，所以對自己被假設的角色也一無所知。The special committee, however, felt both offers undervalued Dell. Then, on Dec. 3, a Goldman Sachs (GS) analyst suggested that the company might be ripe for a leveraged buyout -- sending Dell stock up 4.4% to $10.06 per share. The next day, KKR dropped out of the process. It told special committee advisor J.P. Morgan (JPM) that its main sticking point was the uncertain PC market and competitive pressures -- two factors validated by Dell's recent performance. That same day, Silver Lake raised its offer to $12.70 per share.
不過，特別委員會覺得，這兩筆出價都低估了戴爾公司的價值。結果，到了12月3日，高盛集團（Goldman Sachs）的一位分析師暗示，戴爾公司可能適合做槓桿收購——這一下子就讓戴爾的股票漲了4.4%，到了每股10.06美元。而第二天，KKR就退出了收購陣營。它向特別委員會的顧問摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）表示，阻礙其採取進一步行動主要有兩大原因，一是難以把握的PC市場，二是競爭壓力——這也正是兩個被戴爾近期的業績表現所證實的因素。就在同一天，銀湖將出價擡高到了每股12.70美元。As the special committee kept pressing for a higher price, Michael Dell kept making his case for going private. He identified four things he would do with a privately-held Dell: (i) Increase R&D for the company's enterprise services group, (ii) Hire additional salespeople, (iii) Expand in emerging markets, and (iv) Invest new money into the PC and tablet business. In other words, he wants to create growth rather than strip-and-flip.
就在特別委員會不斷施壓要求更高出價時，邁克爾?戴爾卻提出了私有化的請求。他表示，如果戴爾私有化，他將推出四大舉措：(i) 增加公司企業服務集團的研發投入；(ii) 增加銷售人員；(iii) 拓展新興市場；(iv) 爲PC和平板電腦業務增加投資。換言之，他是想讓公司業績增長，而不是套現走人。Then came a Bloomberg news report that Dell was in buyout talks, sending the stock up to $12.29 per share. The next day Silver Lake upped its offer to $12.90, but it was still seemed insufficient. Alex Mandl began talking to Michael Dell about strategic options were Dell to remain public, much of which involved cost-cutting (which was the opposite of Michael's stated vision). Mandl also told Silver Lake that $13.75 was the magic price, but Silver Lake just couldn't get there and threatened to walk. After a few more proposals it got to $13.65 per share, with Michael rolling over his shares at $13.36. This proposal also would allow Dell to continue paying out its dividend -- something it offered to suspend if the offer hit $13.80.
隨後又傳來了彭博社（Bloomberg）的報道，說戴爾正開始全盤收購談判，這讓股價升至每股12.29美元。第二天銀湖就將出價提到了12.90美元，但還是不夠。阿歷克斯?曼德爾開始和邁克爾?戴爾商量，如果戴爾維持上市公司格局，應該採取什麼戰略，多數都涉及到削減成本（而這恰恰和邁克爾已經表明過的願景背道而馳）。曼德爾還向銀湖表示，13.75美元是很完美的價格，但銀湖就是不答應，還威脅要退出。幾輪博弈後，收購價提到了每股13.65美元，而邁克爾則以13.36美元的股價投入自己的股份。這個方案還是能讓戴爾繼續支付紅利——而如果收購價達到了13.80美元這就沒戲了。In short, the special committee moved Silver Lake from $11.22-$12.16 to $13.65.
一句話，是特別委員會推着銀湖把出價從11.22-12.16美元一路提高到13.65美元。Southeastern math: When the agreement was announced, Southeastern issued a statement saying that $13.65 per share "grossly undervalues" Dell. It also offered up its own analysis, saying the company is worth at least $24 per share. In private, however, Southeastern said it would be okay with a $14-$15 per share bid so long as it and other "large existing" shareholders were given the opportunity to roll over a portion of shares. Later in the proxy, the "large existing" language is dropped in favor of the more inclusive "shareholders."
東南資本的算法：就在雙方協議達成宣佈之際，東南資本發佈了一個聲明，稱13.65美元“嚴重低估了”戴爾公司的價值。它同時還拿出了自己的分析，稱戴爾每股至少值24美元。不過東南資本稱，如果戴爾選擇私有化，那每股14-15美元也是可以接受的，只要它和其他“現在的大”股東們有機會再投入一部分股份。後來在委託書中，所謂的“現在的大”這類措辭被更籠統的說法“股東”一詞取而代之了。Go-Shop: Evercore Partners contacted 67 different parties during the go-shop, with 10 entering the process. We've already detailed the end results, but a few interesting tidbits (1) Insight Venture Partners, working with Blackstone, has never held discussions with members of Dell management. (2) As Fortune previously reported, Blackstone threatened to walk away unless Dell agreed to reimburse its out-of-pocket expenses. (3) TPG Capital conducted two weeks of due diligence during the original process, opting not to submit a bid. But it did reappear during the "go-shop," working with Blackstone. Unclear why it wasn't part of the final Blackstone bid, but that sure makes it harder for Blackstone to do this deal without Michael Dell's shares. (4) Still unclear why the special committee thinks Carl Icahn's proposal could result in a superior bid, when it is premised on a dividend recap that the special committee already examined and determined would pose too many long-term risks.
詢價：在詢價階段，Evercore Partners共接觸過67家客戶，其中10家最終參與了競價。我們已對最終結果做了詳細報道，但還有一些花邊新聞值得關注：（1）與黑石合作的Insight Venture Partners從未和戴爾的管理層展開過會談。（2）《財富》雜誌（Fortune）報道過，黑石曾威脅稱，除非戴爾同意補償現款支付的費用，否則就退出競價。（3）德州太平洋投資集團（TPG Capital）一開始做過爲期兩週的盡職調查，但最後選擇不出價。但在“詢價”階段它又現身了，和黑石展開了合作。現在還不清楚爲何黑石最終出價中不包括它，但這肯定讓黑石在沒有邁克爾?戴爾股份的情況下更難達成這筆交易了。（4）還不清楚爲何特別委員會認爲卡爾?伊坎的方案可能會帶來最佳出價，它是建立在債務紅利上的，對此特別委員會已做過詳細審查，同時認爲它會帶來過多的長期風險。Strip sale talks: During negotiations with Silver Lake, Dell received a call from an undisclosed strategic party, expressing interest in purchasing Dell Financial Services at book value ($3.5b-$4b). Boston Consulting Group examined the proposal, but determined it would not create sufficient value for Dell. Worth noting that another strategic party -- believed to be General Electric (GE) -- signed a joiner to Blackstone's non-disclosure agreement, in order to conduct due diligence on DFS. This suggests Blackstone would sell DFS to GE -- a likely point of contention with Michael Dell (yet another reason why Blackstone is unlikely to bid).
拋售談判：在與銀湖展開談判過程中，戴爾公司接到過一個不明身份的戰略投資方的電話，表示有意按照賬面價值（35億-40億美元）收購戴爾的金融服務業務。波士頓諮詢公司（Boston Consulting Group）在審查過該提案後認爲它無法爲戴爾帶來足夠的價值。值得注意的是，另一個戰略投資方——據信是通用電氣（General Electric）——也和黑石簽署了一個保密協議，以對戴爾的金融服務業務開展盡職調查。這意味着黑石有意把戴爾金融賣給通用電氣——這可能是與邁克爾?戴爾起爭執的另一個要點（也是另一個爲何黑石不太會出價的原因）。
