前任們都失敗了,文在寅能與朝鮮達成和平嗎?

SEOUL, South Korea — The last time his liberal political party was in power, Moon Jae-in saw his boss at the time, Roh Moo-hyun, then South Korea’s president, walk across the Demilitarized Zone into North Korea for a summit meeting that resulted in a peace declaration and promises of massive aid.

韓國首爾——上一次他的自由派政黨執政時，文在寅看着他當時的老闆、時任韓國總統盧武鉉穿過非軍事區，進入朝鮮參加一場峯會，那場會議達成了一項和平宣言和提供大量援助的承諾。

He then saw those deals discarded a year later, in 2008, by a newly elected president who sought closer ties with President George W. Bush, who had branded the North part of an “axis of evil.”

一年後的2008年，他看到了這些協議被一位新當選的總統拋棄，那位總統尋求與布什總統建立更加密切的關係，後者曾把朝鮮稱爲“邪惡軸心國”。

Now, as president of South Korea, Moon is keen not to repeat past failures as he stakes his own political career on brokering a deal between the unpredictable leaders of the United States, his nation’s protector, and North Korea, long its mortal foe.

現在，作爲韓國總統，他賭上自己的政治事業，以中間人的身份協助美國和朝鮮的兩個難以捉摸的領導人達成協議，美國是他的國家的保護者，而朝鮮是其長期的死敵，文在寅希望不要重複過去的失敗。

As chief of staff during the Roh administration, from 2003 to 2008, Moon did not participate in the negotiations with the North, led at the time by Kim Jong Il, the father of the current leader, or join Roh’s overland visit to Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. But he did help Roh organize those talks, held in October 2007.

曾在2003年到2008年的盧武鉉政府中擔任幕僚長的文在寅沒有參加與朝鮮的談判，當時的朝鮮由現任領導人之父金正日統治，文在寅也沒有參加盧武鉉經陸路對朝鮮首都平壤的訪問。但他協助盧武鉉組織了2007年10月舉行的會談。

He has clearly taken to heart what he sees as the lessons of that stillborn peace initiative.

對於那次夭折的和平行動，他顯然吸取了一些教訓。

One takeaway was that advancing inter-Korean relations with generous offers of aid is a non-starter so long as the United States remained locked in a standoff with the North over its nuclear weapons program.

其中一個教訓是，只要美國在覈武器項目方面與朝鮮僵持不下，那麼通過慷慨地提供援助來推進韓朝關係是不可取的。

Another was that any deal with North Korea must be struck and implemented early in the terms of the South Korean and U.S. presidents. This ensures the agreement does not die with a change of governments and political ideologies in Seoul and Washington, as the 2007 agreement and other past deals did.

另一個教訓是，任何與朝鮮的協議都必須在韓國和美國總統首肯下儘早實施。這會確保協議不會因爲首爾和華盛頓的政府交替和政治意識形態轉變而夭折，2007年的協議和其他過去的協議經歷的正是這種情況。

“When we look back, the most important thing is speed,” Moon told the current North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, during their meeting last week in the Demilitarized Zone, the fortified border separating the two Koreas.

“當我們回顧過去時發現，最重要的就是速度，”文在寅上週在非軍事區舉行的會談上對朝鮮現任領導人金正恩這樣說，這個區域是分隔朝鮮兩國的設防邊界。

During that meeting, Moon urged the North Korean to move quickly to make a deal with President Donald Trump during their talks, expected later this month or next month. “We have to learn lessons from the past,” Moon told Kim.

在這場會議中，文在寅敦促朝鮮迅速採取行動，與唐納德·特朗普總統在談判中達成協議，談判預計將在本月末或下個月舉行。“我們必須吸取過去的教訓，”文在寅對金正恩說。

That need for speed is apparent in the fast pace of diplomacy that appears to be leading to a first-ever summit meeting between the leaders of the United States and North Korea, who just a few months ago appeared on the brink of war.

在快速的外交發展中，對速度的需求顯而易見，這些發展似乎促成了美國與朝鮮領導人之間首次舉行峯會，幾個月前，兩國看起來還處於爆發戰爭的邊緣。

Moon, 65, has played a key role in bringing together Trump and Kim, who now appear likely to meet at Panmunjom, the same “truce village” in the Demilitarized Zone where Moon held his talks with Kim.

在讓特朗普和金正恩攜手赴會的成就上，65歲的文在寅發揮了關鍵作用，他們兩人現在可能會在板門店會面，也就是非軍事區中文在寅與金正恩舉行了會談的那座“休戰村”。

Such a meeting would be a triumph for Moon, who has experienced both highs and lows in his country’s relations with North Korea.

這樣的一場會面，將是經歷了朝韓關係起起落落的文在寅的一項成就。

Moon was a conscripted member of an elite paratroop unit in 1976, when axe-wielding North Korean troops murdered two U.S. Army officers while they pruned a poplar tree that blocked their view at Panmunjom. In “Operation Paul Bunyan,” Moon’s unit was sent in to finish chopping down the tree while the North Koreans stood back.

1976年美軍試圖在板門店砍倒一棵阻擋視線的白楊樹時，揮舞着斧頭的朝鮮士兵殺害了兩名美國陸軍軍官，當時文在寅是韓國一支精銳傘兵部隊的徵召士兵。在“保羅·班揚行動”中，文在寅的部隊被派去完成砍樹任務，朝鮮沒有做出反應。

Until last week, Moon’s only visit to North Korea was in 2004, when he accompanied his mother on a government-arranged reunion to see her younger sister for the first time since the Korean War. Moon himself was born in a refugee camp during the war, after his parents fled their native North Korea on board a U.S. Navy cargo ship.

在上週之前，文在寅唯一一次訪問朝鮮是在2004年，當時爲了在朝鮮戰爭結束後第一次與他母親的妹妹相見，他陪伴母親一起參加了政府安排的團聚活動。他的父母當年乘坐美國海軍貨船逃離朝鮮的故鄉，他本人是戰爭期間在一座難民營中出生的。

His approach to handling the United States is one of Moon’s biggest departures from his predecessor, Roh, who committed suicide in 2009 amid corruption allegations surrounding his relatives.

他與其前任盧武鉉的最大不同在於和美國打交道的方式，後者於2009年因親屬涉嫌腐敗而自殺。

Moon appears to have concluded that Roh doomed his own peace deal at least in part by failing to get Bush to back it. Instead, Roh, fiery and blunt, had vowed not to “kowtow to the Americans.”

文在寅似乎認定，盧武鉉斷送了他自己的和平協議，至少部分是因爲他沒有得到布什的支持。相反，憤怒而直率的盧武鉉誓言不會“向美國人屈膝”。

Since taking office last year, Moon has shown himself more sophisticated and accommodating in managing relations with Washington.

自去年上任以來，文在寅在管理同華盛頓的關係方面證明了自己更加精明靈活。

He has closely consulted with the White House during the current rush of diplomacy. Moon has also been careful in public to credit Trump for making the current breakthroughs possible, saying that he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize.

在當前的外交衝突中，他與白宮密切協商。在公開場合，他非常小心地把當前實現的突破歸功於特朗普，表示特朗普理應獲得諾貝爾和平獎。

The need to bring in America also reflects hard-earned domestic political lessons. Moon saw Roh and Kim Dae-jung, the two presidents who championed what was called the Sunshine Policy of engagement with North Korea, fail as the North persisted in its weapons programs despite generous aid.

這種讓美國參與其中的需要，也反映了他在本國政治中吸取的苦澀教訓。文在寅看到，盧武鉉和金大中兩位總統支持與朝鮮接觸的所謂陽光政策，但他們失敗了，因爲儘管獲得慷慨的援助，朝鮮依然堅持它的武器計劃。

Both died heartbroken men, with their legacy dismantled by their conservative foes, who ridiculed them as naive and pro-North Korean.

兩人都在痛心中死去，保守派政敵不但廢除他們的政治遺產，還嘲笑他們幼稚和親朝鮮。

“One thing South Korea has learned is that it cannot improve ties with North Korea without progress in denuclearizing North Korea,” said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul. Otherwise, he said, any deal “would be like building a house cards.”

“韓國已經明白，如果朝鮮無核化不能取得進展，它就不能改善同朝鮮的關係，”首爾東國大學(Dongguk University)研究朝鮮問題的教授金容鉉(Kim Yong-hyun)表示，否則任何交易“就像是蓋紙牌屋一樣。”

During his meeting with Kim at Panmunjom, Moon’s highest priority appeared to be convincing the young North Korean dictator that he could create a better future by striking a deal with Washington to rebuild his country’s economy in exchange for giving up his nuclear arsenal.

在同金正恩的板門店會面中，文在寅的最優先事項似乎是讓這位年輕的朝鮮獨裁者相信，他可以通過與華盛頓達成協議來創造更美好的未來，以放棄他的核武庫爲代價，重建他的國家經濟。

Despite the spectacle of the two Korean leaders leisurely holding hands as they stepped across their nations’ border, Moon and his aides compared his mission to “walking on this ice,” and urged Kim to quickly sign and implement a deal while he and Trump were in office.

儘管朝韓領導人在跨越國界時不慌不忙地手挽着手，但文在寅和助手們說他的使命“如履薄冰”，他們敦促金正恩在文在寅和特朗普任內迅速簽署並執行協議。

“I am still in the first year of my term. I hope we can maintain this speed through my term,” Moon told Kim during their meeting.

“我仍然在任期的第一年。我希望我們能在我的任期內保持這種速度，”文在寅在會議期間對金正恩說。

So far, Moon’s gambit seems to be winning broad support within South Korea. Opinion polls show his approval ratings surging, with some nine out of 10 South Koreans viewing the DMZ meeting as a success.

迄今爲止，文在寅的開局似乎贏得了韓國的廣泛支持。民意調查顯示他的支持率飆升，十個韓國人中有九人認爲非軍事區的會議是成功的。

Not all South Koreans are convinced, however.

然而，並不是所有的韓國人都如此確信。

Hong Joon-pyo, leader of the main conservative opposition Korean Liberty Party, likened Moon to former British Prime Minister Arthur Neville Chamberlain, who he said fell into Hitler’s “trap of false peace.”

主要反對黨，保守派的自由韓國黨(Korean Liberty Party)領導人洪準杓(Hong Joon-pyo)把文在寅比作英國前首相亞瑟·內維爾·張伯倫(Arthur Neville Chamberlain)，他說，張伯倫陷入了希特勒的“虛假和平陷阱”。

“After being cheated eight times, did he still think for a ninth time that North Korea would not cheat this time?” Hong said.

“在被騙了八次之後，第九次他還認爲朝鮮這回不會騙人？”洪準杓說。