非洲有望打破全球稀土供應格局

Vital for so many modern technologies, rare earths remain among the most sought-after minerals on the planet. It was recently suggested at the American Association for the Advancement of Science that the sea beds should be mined for them.

對如此多現代技術必不可少的稀土，仍然是地球上最搶手的礦物之一。美國科學促進會(American Association for the Advancement of Science)最近提議應開採海牀以獲得稀土。

Currently, global demand is met largely by China. However, the fact that Rainbow Rare Earths, which owns a project in Burundi, successfully listed on the London Stock Exchange at the end of January has prompted speculation that China’s dominance may finally be challenged. Such talk may be premature but it does suggest that now is a good time to assess the current state of play in the market.

目前，全球稀土需求大部分由中國的供應滿足。然而，在布隆迪擁有一處稀土項目的Rainbow Rare Earths公司1月底在倫敦證交所成功上市，這引發了對於中國的主導地位可能終將受到挑戰的猜測。此類說法或許言之過早，但這的確表明，現在正是評估稀土市場當前格局的好時機。

China clearly continues to dominate global production. The latest available statistics (for 2015, from the US Geological Survey) give its annual production as slightly more than 100,000 tons. Australia, second in the list, trails with 10,000 tons. Only three other countries produce more that 1,000 tons a year (the US, Russia and Thailand with 4,100 tons, 2,500 tons and 1,100 tons, respectively). Africa currently figures nowhere.

中國顯然繼續主導着全球稀土生產。能獲得的最新統計數據（來自美國地質調查局(US Geological Survey)的2015年的數據）顯示，中國稀土的年產量略高於10萬噸。排名第二的澳大利亞年產僅1萬噸。其他年產量超過1000噸的國家只有3個（美國、俄羅斯、泰國，分別爲4100噸、2500噸和1100噸）。非洲目前排不上號。

Despite China’s dominance of production, the same is not true of deposits. It is estimated that China has no more than 30 per cent of global deposits. The problem lies in the cost of bringing new deposits into production and the ability of one country with such a dominant position to flood the market and bring down prices, hitting the viability of new projects.

雖然中國在稀土生產上佔據主導地位，但儲量方面情況並非如此。據估計，中國稀土儲量佔全球總儲量不超過30%。問題在於將新發現儲量轉化爲產量的成本以及一個擁有絕對主導地位的國家能夠用海量供應壓低價格、從而讓新項目難以存活。

As well as price challenges, new projects face environmental hurdles. Projects in China have resulted in contaminated groundwater, radioactive tailings and other environmental issues.

除了價格挑戰，新項目還面臨環境方面的障礙。中國的稀土項目帶來了地下水污染、放射性尾礦及其他環境問題。

In the 1990s, the US supplied its domestic demand for rare earths from its own production. But that ceased when low-cost minerals from China entered the market. It is speculated that China continues to stockpile rare earths, maintaining to some extent its ability to control global prices.

上世紀90年代，美國本國的稀土生產可以滿足其國內需求。但來自中國的低價稀土進入美國市場後，美國就停止了稀土生產。外界猜測，中國將繼續囤積稀土，在一定程度上保持其控制全球稀土價格的能力。

Mounting a challenge to Chinese dominance has been talked of for years. Several current macro trends are now likely to accelerate such a challenge. Demand for rare earths is set to increase significantly.

向中國的主導地位發起挑戰是一個老生常談的話題。當前的幾大宏觀趨勢如今很可能加速這樣的挑戰。對稀土的需求勢必將大幅增加。

Historically, their major use has been in components for the telecoms, computer and other electronics industries (they are particularly important in making high-performance magnets). A growing need for enhanced battery technologies will boost demand. A rise in protectionism suggests new strategic imperatives for countries such as the US and Russia to recommence or increase domestic production.

過去，稀土主要被用於製造電信、計算機和其他電子工業的組件（稀土對高性能磁體制造尤爲重要)。對增強型電池技術不斷增長的需求將提振對稀土的需求。貿易保護主義的興起對美國、俄羅斯等國意味着新的戰略緊迫性，即需要重新開始或增加國內稀土生產。

It is widely acknowledged that, outside North America and Australia, southern and eastern Africa offer the greatest potential for rare earth production, especially in South Africa, Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique. Kenya, Burundi, Zambia and Namibia are also mentioned.

目前公認的是，除了北美和澳大利亞，非洲南部和東部擁有的生產稀土的潛力最大，特別是南非、坦桑尼亞、馬拉維和莫桑比克。肯尼亞、布隆迪、贊比亞和納米比亞也是。

Rainbow Rare Earths’ IPO is premised on its Gakara project in Burundi. The project is not yet producing and further exploration will be needed. The risks described in the IPO prospectus are a reminder of the difficulties of developing such projects, including pricing and environmental challenges and the need to produce ore at the required levels of concentration.

Rainbow公司的首次公開發行(IPO)，是以其在布隆迪Gakara的項目爲前提的。該項目尚未投產，還需要進一步的勘探。公司招股說明書中描述的風險提醒了開發此類項目的種種困難，包括定價、環境挑戰以及需要生產出符合元素濃度要求的礦石。

Rainbow raised ?8m at its IPO, at the top end of its target range. It has clearly generated interest in the rare earth industry. However, by itself the project is unlikely to make a large dent in the overall global supply position. That will require bringing many more projects into production in the near to medium term. With the Lynas project in Australia being the only significant producer outside China there is a long way to go before Chinese domination is diluted. Clearly, though, African projects can make a significant contribution to correcting the imbalance.

Rainbow的首次公開發行籌集了800萬英鎊，處於目標區間的頂端。該公司顯然已引起稀土行業的興趣。然而，這一項目本身不大可能對全球整體供應狀況造成很大影響。改變現狀需要在短期至中期內讓更多項目投產。鑑於唯一值得注意的非中國稀土生產商只有澳大利亞的Lynas公司一家，要瓦解中國的主導地位還有很長的路要走。不過，很顯然，非洲的稀土項目可以在修正這種失衡方面做出重大貢獻。

Ian Coles is a partner and head of the Global Mining Group at Mayer Brown LLP.

伊恩?科爾斯(Ian Coles)是美亞博律師事務所(Mayer Brown LLP)全球礦業小組主管、合夥人。