全球汽車製造商競相鎖定鋰供應

As Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors rolled out their electric cars for the mass market in 2010, Japanese manufacturers placed enthusiastic bets on a surge in battery demand. But the electric vehicle revolution failed to materialise and much of their investments went sour.

隨着2010年日產(Nissan)和三菱汽車(Mitsubishi Motors)在大衆市場推出電動汽車，日本製造商熱情地押注於電池需求激增。但電動汽車革命未能實現，它們的大部分投資都打了水漂。

Nearly a decade later, China and other governments are driving a massive push for a future of electric cars as they try to shift consumers away from combustion engines.

近十年過去了，中國以及其他國家的政府正在大力推廣電動汽車，希望未來讓消費者不再使用內燃機汽車。

To capture the market for these vehicles, global carmakers from Volkswagen to Tesla are attempting to lock in supplies of raw materials that are needed to increase production of lithium ion batteries, which will power this electric revolution.

爲了搶佔電動汽車市場，從大衆(Volkswagen)到特斯拉(Tesla)的全球汽車製造商正試圖鎖定擴大生產鋰離子電池所需的原材料的供應。鋰離子電池將會爲這種電動革命提供動力。

Indeed, electric vehicle supply in China is expected to be one of the main drivers of global demand for lithium. By 2030, Goldman Sachs expects China to supply 60 per cent of the world’s electric vehicles, up from 45 per cent in 2016.

預計中國的電動汽車供應將成爲全球鋰需求的主要推動力之一。高盛(Goldman Sachs)預計，到2030年，中國生產的電動汽車將佔到全球產量的60%，高於2016年的45%。

However, the problem for all carmakers is that none of them have “proper long-term contracts” for supply of lithium, according to Simon Moores, founder of London-based Benchmark Minerals Intelligence.

然而，據倫敦基準礦業情報(Benchmark Minerals Intelligence)的創始人西蒙?穆爾斯(Simon Moores)表示，所有汽車製造商面臨的問題是，它們都沒有鋰供應的“適當長期合同”。

Milan Thakore, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, adds: “I think a lot of car manufacturers are almost panicking, in the sense they want to make sure they don’t miss out on the essential materials they need for the battery.”

Wood Mackenzie的分析師米蘭?塔科爾(Milan Thakore)補充道：“很多汽車製造商希望確保自己不會缺失這些製造電池所需的關鍵材料，從這方面來說，我認爲它們幾乎是感到了恐慌。”

The fears are particularly pronounced in Japan, once the undisputed leader in rechargeable battery technology.

這種擔憂在日本尤爲明顯，後者曾經是可充電電池技術無可爭議的領導者。

While Japan’s Panasonic remains the world’s biggest supplier of car batteries, China is now home to two of the world’s top five suppliers of lithium batteries — CATL and BYD.

儘管日本的松下(Panasonic)仍然是全球最大的汽車電池供應商，但目前世界五大鋰電池供應商中，有兩家在中國，即寧德時代新能源科技有限公司(CATL)和比亞迪(BYD)。

Backed by aggressive government policies and subsidies for electric vehicles, Chinese manufacturers also control between 50 and 77 per cent of the market for four of the key components — cathode materials, anode materials, electrolyte solutions and separators — used in lithium ion batteries, according to Yano research Institute.

矢野經濟研究所(Yano Research)的數據顯示，在激進的政府政策和電動汽車補貼的支持下，中國製造商還控制着鋰離子電池中使用的四種關鍵原料——陰極材料、陽極材料、電解液和隔膜——市場的50%-77%份額。

Lacking the financial firepower of government-sponsored Chinese rivals, Japanese carmakers have traditionally relied on homegrown tie-ups with trading houses, battery makers and materials suppliers to resolve any shortage in resources.

由於不具備像受到政府資助的中國競爭對手那樣的財力，日本汽車製造商一直依靠與國內貿易公司、電池製造商和材料供應商的本土合作來解決資源短缺問題。

But with competition growing globally, Japanese carmakers can no longer resolve shortages in resources through using domestic materials makers alone as they are too stretched and under pressure to supply overseas groups.

但隨着全球範圍內競爭日益加劇，日本汽車製造商無法再單靠國內材料生產商來解決資源短缺問題，因爲資源過於緊張，而且後者還面臨向海外集團供應的壓力。

“Their [Japanese material makers] clients will be all over the world,” says Noboru Sato, a visiting professor at Nagoya University and a former executive of battery supplier Samsung SDI.

名古屋大學(Nagoya University)訪問教授、電池供應商三星SDI(Samsung SDI)前高管諾博魯?薩託(Noboru Sato)表示：“它們（日本原材料製造商）的客戶將來自世界各地。”

“While Japanese companies may say they can compete with technology, it’s going to be the investment capacity that will be a critical factor for future competition in batteries,” he adds.

他補充說：“雖然日本公司可能會說它們可以在技術上展開競爭，但投資能力將會成爲未來電池領域競爭的一個關鍵因素。”

This has prompted some Japanese groups to try to move away from the homegrown model, which has traditionally relied on domestic battery technology that was deemed to be higher in quality than that offered by Chinese groups.

這促使一些日本集團試圖擺脫本土模式，傳統上這種模式依賴於國內電池技術，而後者被認爲質量優於中國集團。

For example, Nissan last year offloaded its battery business with Japan’s NEC to a Chinese private equity group, GSR Capital, as it sought to boost its cost competitiveness.

例如，去年日產將其與日本NEC的電池業務轉讓給中國私人股本集團金沙江資本(GSR Capital)，因爲它試圖提高成本競爭力。

Jun Seki, who heads Nissan’s Chinese joint venture with Dongfeng Motor Group, recently indicated the carmaker may procure lithium ion batteries from a Chinese manufacturer to meet local government requirements.

日產與東風汽車集團(Dongfeng Motor Group)在中國的合資企業的負責人關潤(Jun Seki)最近暗示，該合資企業可能會向一家中國製造商採購鋰離子電池以滿足當地政府的要求。

Toyota is also trying to take the initiative, albeit through the traditional model. In January, its trading arm agreed on a $224m deal to take a 15 per cent stake in Orocobre, an Australian company that produces lithium in Argentina.

豐田(Toyota)也試圖掌握主動，只不過它採用的是傳統模式。今年1月，豐田交易部門同意以2.24億美元收購澳大利亞公司Orocobre 15%的股份。Orocobre在阿根廷生產鋰。

Additionally, the company has taken steps to strengthen its relations with domestic suppliers as it plans to launch electric vehicles in China and India from 2020.

此外，豐田還採取措施加強與國內供應商的關係，該公司計劃從2020年開始在中國和印度推出電動汽車。

Significantly, it has deepened its partnership with Panasonic in an effort to accelerate commercialisation of solid-state batteries, which can hold higher power and charge in less time than conventional lithium ion batteries.

值得注意的是，它加強了與松下的合作關係，以加速固態電池的商業化進程。與傳統的鋰離子電池相比，固態電池擁有更大容量，而且充電時間更短。

The company also owns a stake in Sumitomo Metal Mining, the country’s largest nickel smelter, which supplies cathode materials for Panasonic’s lithium ion batteries that are used in Tesla’s electric vehicles.

豐田還持有日本最大的鎳冶煉企業——住友金屬礦業公司(Sumitomo Metal Mining)的股份，後者爲特斯拉電動汽車中應用的松下鋰離子電池供應陰極材料。

Elsewhere, Germany’s Volkswagen has launched a tender for five years’ supply of cobalt, although it has struggled to find any takers.

在其他地方，德國的大衆啓動了五年鈷供應的招標工作，儘管它很難找到投標者。

This month, BMW said it was close to signing a deal for the long-term supply of battery metals lithium and cobalt, while Tesla is also in talks with Chile’s SQM, one of the world’s largest lithium producers.

本月，寶馬錶示即將簽署一項關於電池金屬鋰和鈷的長期供應協議，而特斯拉也正在與智利SQM談判，後者是全球最大的鋰生產商之一。

For their part, Chinese companies are also increasing their investment in lithium producers.

就中國企業來說，它們也在增加對鋰生產商的投資。

Johan Van De Ven, of RWR Advisory, a Washington-based consultancy, said the Chinese auto industry was keen to avoid supply chain bottlenecks that could slow production of electric vehicles.

華盛頓諮詢公司RWR諮詢(RWR Advisory)的喬翰?範德萬(Johan van de Ven)表示，中國汽車業渴望避免可能會導致電動汽車生產放緩的供應鏈瓶頸。

“Establishing control over raw materials can provide the supply chain security that China needs to meet its ambitious EV targets, and may also allow it to scupper the progress of other players,” he says.

他表示：“確立對原材料的控制，能夠使中國獲得實現其在電動汽車領域雄心勃勃的目標所需的供應鏈安全，並且還可能使得它能夠阻止其他企業的進步。”

RWR Advisory recorded more than $1bn in transactions for lithium mines by Chinese companies — particularly car companies and car supply companies, up from zero in 2016 and $178m in 2015.

RWR諮詢的記錄顯示，中國企業（尤其是汽車企業和汽車零部件供應企業）在鋰礦方面的交易超過10億美元，而2016年和2015年的交易額分別爲零和1.78億美元。

Among the deals, Chinese carmaker Great Wall Motor signed an agreement with Australian lithium miner Pilbara Minerals to secure supply of the metal for five years.

在這些交易中，中國汽車製造商長城汽車(Great Wall Motor)與澳大利亞鋰礦開採商Pilbara Minerals簽署了一份協議以保障五年的鋰供應。

The country’s largest producer of electric vehicles, BYD, also partnered with China’s largest potash production base, the Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Co, to extract lithium from a salt lake and make batteries.

中國最大的電動汽車生產商比亞迪也與中國最大的鉀肥生產基地——青海鹽湖股份(Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Co)合作，從鹽湖中提取鋰並製造電池。

China also dominates the supply chain for cobalt — the battery material of top concern for carmakers as more than half of the world’s supply comes from the unstable Democratic Republic of Congo, raising fears among carmakers over security of supply.

中國還佔據了鈷供應鏈的主導地位——這是汽車製造商最爲關注的電池材料，因爲全球一半以上的鈷供應來自局勢不穩的剛果民主共和國，引發了汽車製造商對供應安全的擔憂。

However, despite the initiatives, there are nagging concerns among some groups over whether companies should move rapidly towards locking in raw materials deals as the price of lithium and cobalt rises dramatically.

然而，儘管採取了上述種種舉措，但隨着鋰和鈷的價格大幅上漲，一些企業依然在擔憂是否應該迅速出手鎖定原材料交易。

“Carmakers may need to secure raw materials themselves if they become desperate for lithium ion batteries, but it remains unclear whether electric vehicles will really take off and batteries will evolve,” says Maki Sekimoto, director at the metals research division of state-run agency Japan, Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation.

國有的日本石油天然氣金屬礦產資源機構(JOGMEC)的金屬研究部主管Maki Sekimoto表示：“如果汽車製造商迫切需要鋰離子電池，它們可能需要自己採購原材料，但目前還不清楚電動汽車是否能夠真正起飛以及電池是否會不斷髮展。”

“It’s a headache for the industry that there are too many uncertain pieces that make it difficult to make a definitive call on which direction things will go.”

“讓整個行業頭痛的是不確定因素太多，以致很難確定形勢將向哪個方向發展。”