保定初定政治副中心 治理霧霾影響中國汽車製造商
China is declaring war on pollution. And it's extending the battlefield to the world's biggest car market.
中國打響了治污之戰，而且戰場延伸到了國內汽車市場。Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has declared that smog is as big a problem as poverty. One solution: new proposed fuel-economy standards for passenger cars. These rules would require car makers to reduce fuel consumption by 6.2% on average every year between 2016 and 2020, the most ambitious rate for that period among major markets, according to the International Council on Clean Transportation, an environmental research group.
中國國務院總理李克強宣佈，霧霾是與貧困同樣嚴重的問題。一個解決方案是：針對乘用車制定新的燃油效率標準。環境研究組織國際清潔交通委員會(International Council on Clean Transportation)的信息顯示，中國的車輛能效新規將要求汽車廠商在2016至2020年期間使油耗平均每年降低6.2%，這是同期主要市場中力度最大的節能要求。Some auto makers will be hit harder than others. Take Tata Motors-owned JaguarLand Rover, which has profited from selling SUVs, the fastest-selling passenger segment in China. The previous round of targets for 2015 gave heavier cars extra leeway. Under the new proposal, they have to play catch-up. A hypothetical car maker that sells 2.5-ton SUVs has to cut the amount of gas needed to travel 100 km by up to 40% between 2016 and 2020, compared with 31% for a maker that produces only one-ton sedans.
一些汽車廠商將比同行受到更大的打擊。以塔塔汽車(Tata Motors)旗下的捷豹路虎(JaguarLand Rover)爲例，這個品牌通過銷售運動型多用途車(SUV)獲利，這是中國最暢銷的乘用車型。此前給出的2015年標準給了較重車型額外的轉圜餘地，而在新標準下這些車型不得不迎頭趕上。假設一家汽車廠商只生產2.5噸重SUV，則2016至2020年間該公司需要將百公里油耗降低多達40%；相比之下，只生產1噸重轎車的汽車廠商僅需將百公里油耗降低31%。
Foreign luxury car makers such as BMW and Audi face a new challenge. Currently they calculate a combined fuel-economy average for the big models they import and the small ones made locally. Now imports have to be compliant on their own, says Sanford C. Bernstein's Max Warburton. Another rule takes away allowances for gas-guzzling automatic-transmission cars, hurting foreign brands' automatic-heavy fleets.
寶馬(BMW)、奧迪(Audi)等海外豪華汽車製造商正面臨一個新的挑戰。目前他們在計算汽車能耗時都是計算進口大型車與本地產小型車的平均能耗。Sanford C. Bernstein的沃伯頓(Max Warburton)說，現在進口車的能耗須單獨達標。另一項規定取消了對高耗油的自動擋汽車的補貼，對海外品牌的自動擋重型車構成打擊。There's a good chance most of the 2020 recommendations will be implemented, just as most of the 2015 proposals were. An exact time line for the final rules isn't clear. The car makers with the farthest to go to lift fleet average to the proposed new target are Toyota, JLR and Daimler's local venture, according to Mr. Warburton. Still, foreign makers are well positioned to inject new technology, since they're making similar improvements in other markets like the U.S. That leaves locals such as Great Wall and Geely with the most work to do.
2020年汽車能效標準建議的大多內容可能付諸實施，就像2015年建議的大多內容都被採納一樣。但還不清楚出臺最終規定的確切時間。沃伯頓表示，豐田(Toyota)、捷豹路虎和戴姆勒(Daimler)在華合資公司旗下全系車型平均能耗與擬議的新標準相差最大。不過，由於海外汽車製造商正在美國等其他市場進行類似改進，他們對引入新技術準備比較充分。這樣一來，本土車企如長城汽車(Great Wall)、吉利汽車(Geely)反而有最多工作要做。There are winners, too. Brilliance China Automotive's joint venture with BMW and Ford's local venture sport relatively efficient fleets. Then there are the companies that help car makers save fuel. Hong Kong-listed auto-parts supplier Nexteer makes electrical power-steering systems that are more efficient than the hydraulic kind. BorgWarner makes powertrains, including the engine, more efficient. And the use of aluminum to reduce vehicle weight should give that metal a boost.
新規下也有贏家。華晨中國(Brilliance China Automotive)與寶馬和福特的合資公司就以能效相對較高的車型作爲賣點。幫助汽車製造商提高燃油效率的公司也將獲益。汽車零部件供應商耐世特汽車(Nexteer)生產的電動轉向系統比傳統液壓動力轉向系統更爲高效。博格華納(BorgWarner)生產更爲高效的動力總成系統（包括髮動機）。此外，使用鋁減輕車身重量的做法應會給鋁金屬構成提振。The new fuel standards are ambitious, and could become even stricter should pollution worsen. Car makers that can easily adapt stand to prosper the most from China's cleaner future.
新燃油標準力度不小，並且如果污染情況惡化，規定還可能變得更加嚴格。最容易滿足新規要求的汽車製造商將在中國更清潔的未來中取得最大成功。
