英國退歐好說不好做

Theresa May is no longer Theresa Maybe, as The Economist dubbed her. After months of gnomic statements, the prime minister appears to have locked herself in a dark room over Christmas and taken the hard decisions about Brexit. In her speech on Tuesday, she outlined a bold plan of intentions: the UK will leave the single market, regain full control over EU immigration and pursue trade agreements with the EU and other countries. In short, Mrs May confirmed that the government is pursuing a “Canada+” model. Both in the UK and elsewhere, a statement of intent is most welcome. Now, the really hard part is making it happen.

特里薩?梅(Theresa May)不再是《經濟學人》(The Economist)所稱的“特里薩?沒準兒”(Theresa Maybe)了。在數月來淨講套話之後，梅似乎在聖誕節期間將自己關在小黑屋裏，然後在退歐問題上做出了艱難決定。她在週二的演講中概述了一個大膽的計劃，說明了英國方面的意願：英國將會退出單一市場，在歐盟移民問題上拿回全部控制權，並尋求與歐盟和其他國家簽署貿易協定。簡言之，梅證實英國政府將尋求一種“加拿大+”模式。無論是在英國還是在其他地方，意願聲明都最受人歡迎。如今，真正困難的部分是落實。

There was clarity too on a transition deal. Mrs May said she wishes to avoid a “disruptive cliff-edge” — and the markets responded favourably with sterling rebounding. There will be a “phased process of implementation” over a finite time but it is still unclear how this will work or what will change between the end of the Article 50 process and the ultimate break with the EU. This may be out of Britain’s hands — the EU27 nations will have their own thoughts about the terms of the transition.

梅還闡明瞭過渡協議問題。梅表示希望避免“置身懸崖邊以致造成破壞性後果”——市場做出了積極的迴應，英鎊匯率反彈。英國退歐將會在限定時間內“分階段實施”，但目前仍不清楚的是，將會如何分階段退歐，或者從依據《里斯本條約》第50條(Article 50)啓動的退歐進程結束到最終退出歐盟之間將會發生哪些方面的變化。這可能超出了英國的控制——歐盟其他27個國家將對過渡條款有自己的想法。

The largest unknown area is the UK’s future in the customs union, which provides for the frictionless movement of goods across Europe. Mrs May admitted that remaining a full member was off the table — she wants Britain to strike its own trade deals. But nor does she want to quit entirely. Instead, Britain may become “an associate member of the customs union in some way” — a rejigging of the notorious “have our cake and eat it” formula.

最大的懸念是英國在歐洲關稅同盟的未來，後者使得商品可以在歐洲境內暢通無阻地流通。梅承認，保留關稅同盟完全成員國身份不在討論範圍內——她想讓英國簽署自己的貿易協議。但她也不想完全退出。相反，英國可能“在某種意義上成爲關稅同盟的準成員國”——這是對出了名的“魚與熊掌不可兼得”模式的調整。

This could prove to be the most contentious issue in the negotiations: Britain needs it to please important employers like Nissan because they use the UK as a base for exporting to Europe; the EU, meanwhile, can use it as leverage. Both sides know that pulling the plug on the customs union in its entirety could be hugely disruptive.

事實可能證明這是談判中最具爭議性的問題：英國需要關稅同盟成員身份來取悅日產(Nissan)等重要僱主，因爲它們將英國作爲出口歐洲的基地；與此同時，歐盟可能利用它來作爲籌碼。雙方都知道，英國完全退出關稅同盟可能產生巨大的破壞。

Mrs May’s Brexit approach is to abandon all elements of EU membership and then claw some back, notably on customs and security. It is a strategy designed to satisfy the country’s political mood. She has to convince EU leaders that such an approach is in their interests, too. There is a precedent for this: during her time in the Home Office, Mrs May pushed for the UK to opt out of 130 EU Justice and Home Affairs measures. She ended up opting back in to 35 of them, including the European arrest warrant. The same approach is being taken with Brexit.

梅的退歐策略是全面放棄歐盟成員國身份，然後取回部分資格，特別是在關稅和安全問題上。這項戰略旨在安撫國內政治情緒。她必須讓歐盟領導人相信，這種做法也符合歐盟的利益。她這套策略是有先例的：在英國內政部任職期間，梅推動英國選擇退出歐盟司法和內政事務(EU Justice and Home Affairs) 130項措施。她最終選擇重新加入其中的35項，包括歐洲逮捕令。她正在英國退歐問題上採取同樣的策略。

Aside from the unnecessary threat that Britain will walk away if offered a “bad deal”, the tone and content of the speech was well judged. After plenty of stick brandished in Europe’s direction, there were lots of carrots in the talk of friendship and a new “strategic partnership”.

除了不必要地威脅如果歐盟給出“糟糕的協議”英國就不幹了，她演講的語氣和內容還是恰當的。在多次朝着歐洲方向揮舞大棒後，談到友誼和建立新的“戰略合作”時她也拿出了許多胡蘿蔔。

For those who supported Remain in last year’s referendum, Mrs May has killed off their last hopes of being partly in, partly out of Europe. For Brexiters, their fears that the prime minister would not deliver on the referendum result have been calmed.

對於那些在去年公投中支持留歐的人而言，梅扼殺了他們對“部分退出、部分留下”的最後希望。而退歐派就不必再擔心梅不履行公投結果了。

Today marks of the dawn of Brexit Britain. It could be a cold shower for politicians and the economy, but there seems to be no going back. It is time for everyone to pull together to make it work.

今日標誌着英國退歐時代的開端。對政治人士和經濟而言，這可能會是一次冷水浴，但似乎已無法回頭。現在是所有人團結合作實現退歐的時刻了。