西方爲何出現圍牆心態

Tear down this wall” demanded Ronald Reagan in Berlin in 1987. “Build the wall” demands Donald Trump, the man poised to take over Reagan’s party by winning the Republican nomination for the US presidency in 2016.

1987年，美國前總統、共和黨人羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)曾在柏林呼籲：“推倒這堵牆。”但有望贏得2016年共和黨總統候選人提名、從而執掌該黨的唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)卻呼籲“修建隔離牆”。

While America is still debating Mr Trump’s demand for a “great, great wall” along its border with Mexico, Europe has already entered the wall construction business. The EU’s panic over the “migrant crisis” is leading to a multiplication of new physical barriers and checks in Europe, to block the passage of would-be refugees.

在美國內部對特朗普提出的沿美國與墨西哥邊界修建“巨型隔離牆”的要求仍在爭論之際，歐洲已經開始“築牆”了。歐盟對“移民危機”的恐慌正使得新的隔離設施和檢查站在歐洲成倍增加，以堵住準難民的通路。

Once again, there are some painful historical ironies. The first breaches in the Iron Curtain in the summer of 1989 came when the Hungarian government removed the electric fencing that separated its country from Austria — a decision that set off a train of events that culminated in the fall of the Berlin Wall a few months later. A quarter of a century on, Hungary has once again been a trailblazer, but this time in the opposite direction. When Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, built a razor-wire fence along his country’s Frontier last summer, to deter would-be refugees, he was roundly denounced. A few months later, an Orban-style fence has just been built along the Greek-Macedonian border, and frontier controls are being tightened across Europe.

令人痛苦的歷史性諷刺事件再次發生。1989年夏，匈牙利政府拆除分隔該國與奧地利的帶電鐵絲網，首次將“鐵幕”(Iron Curtain)撕開。這一決定引發了一連串的事件，並最終在幾個月後導致柏林牆(Berlin Wall)倒塌。25年後，匈牙利再次成爲先驅，但這次是朝着相反的方向。當去年夏天匈牙利總理歐爾班•維克托(Viktor Orban)下令沿本國邊境架起帶刺鐵絲網以阻止準難民流入時，他的做法受到了嚴厲譴責。但僅僅幾個月後，一道“歐爾班式”的鐵絲網圍欄就沿着希臘與馬其頓的邊界修建起來，整個歐洲的邊境管控也都在收緊。

The journey from Reagan to Trump — from tearing down walls to putting them up — says a lot about the west’s journey from confidence to fear over the past 30 years. There are many reasons for this new demand for barriers between the west and the rest. The most obvious and direct cause is the fear of mass immigration from what used to be called the “third world”. But, beyond that, there is a broader loss of faith in the west’s ability to engage successfully with the outside world.

從里根到特朗普，從推倒隔離牆到重建隔離牆，這一歷程在很大程度上體現了過去30年西方社會從自信到恐懼的轉變。有很多理由可以解釋這種在西方與非西方之間建立屏障的新需求。最明顯、最直接的原因是對來自曾被稱爲“第三世界”的大規模移民的恐懼。但除此之外，更深層次的原因在於，西方存在更廣泛的信心缺失，懷疑自己成功與外界打交道的能力。

Even before the migrant crisis, anti-immigration parties were on the rise across Europe. They are almost certain to gain strength amid the present panic. Europe’s extreme right is already hailing the rise of Mr Trump, on the other side of the Atlantic. Jean-Marie Le Pen, the founding father of France’s National Front, recently tweeted: “If I were American, I would vote for Donald Trump — may God protect him.” Concerns about immigration from the Muslim world and terrorism have been linked in both Europe and the US — and taken to the extreme by the Trump campaign’s ugly demand for a temporary ban on all Muslims entering the US.

甚至在移民危機爆發之前，反移民政黨已在歐洲各國崛起。而當下的恐慌情緒幾乎肯定會讓他們的實力得到增強。歐洲極右翼已經開始歡呼大西洋彼岸特朗普的崛起。法國國民陣線(National Front)創始人讓-馬裏•勒龐(Jean-Marie Le Pen)最近在Twitter上寫道：“如果我是美國人，我會投票支持唐納德•特朗普——願上帝保佑他。”在歐洲和美國，對來自穆斯林世界移民的擔憂與對恐怖主義的擔憂已經連在一起——特朗普在競選中提出的暫時禁止所有穆斯林進入美國的可恥要求，將這種合二爲一的擔憂推向了極端。

Beyond the fears about mass migration, however, there is also a crumbling of some of the ideas that have underpinned western engagement with the outside world since the end of the cold war. The first principle is the promotion of a “globalised” economy through the removal of barriers to trade and investment. The second is a willingness to contemplate foreign military intervention in the world’s trouble spots.

然而，除了存在對大規模移民的擔憂，一些自冷戰結束以來一直維繫着西方與外界交往的理念也面臨崩潰。其中第一條理念是通過破除貿易和投資壁壘來促進經濟“全球化”。第二條是願意考慮對世界動盪地區進行軍事幹預。

These two ideas — globalisation and liberal interventionism — were indirectly linked. The best solution to poverty and instability in the non-western world was (and is) routinely said to be economic growth, through increased trade and investment. But, in the aftermath of the fall of the Berlin Wall, western powers also became more willing to contemplate military intervention to “stabilise” failed states and troubled regions that had proved impervious to the magic of globalisation — from the Balkans to Africa and Afghanistan.

這兩種理念——全球化與人道干涉主義——具有間接聯繫。人們過去（現在也是）一直認爲，解決非西方世界貧困與不穩定問題的最佳方案在於通過增加貿易和投資帶動經濟增長。但在柏林牆倒後，西方大國同時也變得越來越願意考慮利用軍事幹預，來“穩定”全球化的魔法已被證明無法穿透的失敗國家和動盪地區——從巴爾幹地區、非洲到阿富汗。

After 25 years of governments running these policy experiments, however, western voters seem increasingly sceptical about both globalisation and liberal interventionism. In the aftermath of the Iraq and Afghan wars, there is very little appetite for further large-scale western military intervention in the Middle East. All the Republican candidates in the presidential race are prepared to pile into President Barack Obama for “weakness” in Syria, but none are proposing the deployment of ground troops. Similarly, while there is anguish inside the EU about the influx of refugees from Syria, there is no discussion of sending troops there to end the conflict that is driving the refugee flows.

然而，在西方各國政府進行此類政策試驗25年後，西方選民對全球化與人道干涉主義兩種理念的質疑似乎也愈發強烈。伊拉克、阿富汗戰爭結束後，西方几乎沒有了在中東地區進一步實施大規模軍事幹預的慾望。所有共和黨總統競選人都準備抨擊巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統在敘利亞問題上的“軟弱”，但沒有一人建議在敘利亞部署地面部隊。同樣，雖然敘利亞難民的涌入讓歐盟各國感到頭痛，但沒人討論是否應該向敘利亞派遣軍隊，以結束引發難民潮的內戰。

New trade agreements are also going out of fashion. Four years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, President Bill Clinton signed the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada. Now Mr Trump is proposing not just to build a wall along the Mexican frontier, but to impose swingeing new tariffs on US manufacturers based in Mexico. Even Hillary Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner, is making protectionist noises on the campaign trail. And while political leaders in the EU claim to be in favour of negotiating a new trade deal with the US, the European left is already mobilising the public against the idea. Even Europe’s cherished internal market may now be threatened by the reimposition of frontier controls within the EU’s border-free Schengen zone.

新的貿易協定也不再受歡迎。柏林牆倒4年後，美國前總統比爾•克林頓(Bill Clinton)與墨西哥、加拿大簽署了《北美自由貿易協定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)。如今，特朗普不僅提出要沿美墨邊界修建隔離牆，還提議對在墨西哥設廠的美國製造商徵收高額關稅。甚至連民主黨總統競選領跑者希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)也在競選活動中大談貿易保護主義。雖然歐盟各國政治領導人表示，支持就締結新的貿易協議與美國進行談判，但歐洲左翼已開始動員公衆反對這一計劃。甚至連歐洲珍視的內部市場，如今可能都受到了申根免簽證區內部重新實施邊境管控的威脅。

Viewed from the comfort of Europe or the US, the problems of the Greater Middle East, Africa or Central America increasingly look both frightening and insoluble. If neither trade nor military intervention can succeed in creating prosperity and order, then the temptation increases to create physical barriers to keep the rest of the world at bay.

在生活愜意的歐美人看來，大中東地區、非洲或中美洲面臨的問題日益令人恐懼和無法解決。如果貿易和軍事幹預都無法成功地帶來繁榮和秩序，那麼，修築隔離設施將世界其他地區阻擋在外，對西方而言將越來越具有誘惑力。

Mainstream politicians in both the EU and the US will continue to argue that building barriers is not the solution to the problems of the world or the west. But they are in danger of finding that their voters have stopped listening.

歐美主流政客將繼續聲明，修築隔離設施並非世界或西方面臨問題的解決之道。但是他們恐怕會發現，選民已不再傾聽他們的呼聲。