西方爲何調整對沙特政策 Why the west's view of the Saudis is shifting
Something is changing in the west’s relationship with Saudi Arabia. You can read it in the newspapers. You can hear it from politicians. And you can see it in shifts in policy.
西方與沙特阿拉伯的關係正在發生某種變化。這一點可以從報紙上讀出來；從政治家們口中聽出來；從政策轉變中看出來。
Hostile articles about the Saudis are now standard fare in the western press. On Sunday, the main editorial in The Observer denounced the UK’s relationship with Saudi Arabia as an “unedifying alliance that imperils our security”. Two days earlier, the BBC ran an article highlighting an “unprecedented wave of executions” in Saudi Arabia. A couple of months ago, Thomas Friedman, arguably the most influential columnist in the US, labelled the terrorist group, Isis, the “ideological offspring” of Saudi Arabia.
對沙特懷有敵意的文章如今已成爲西方媒體的標配。上週日，《觀察家報》(The Observer)的主社論公開指責英國與沙特的關係是一種“危及英國安全的不光彩聯盟”。不久前，英國廣播公司(BBC)刊發的一篇文章濃墨重彩地報道了沙特國內一波“前所未有的死刑潮”。幾個月前，堪稱美國最具影響力專欄作家的托馬斯弗裏德曼(Thomas Friedman)，將恐怖組織“伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)稱爲沙特的“意識形態產物”。
Politicians are taking up similar themes. Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s vice-chancellor, has accused Saudi Arabia of funding Islamist extremism in the west and added: “We have to make it clear to the Saudis that the time of looking away is over.” In the UK, Lord Ashdown, a former leader of the Liberal Democrats, has called for an investigation into the “funding of jihadism” in Britain and pointed at Saudi Arabia.
政治家們也開始拿類似的主題說事。德國副總理西格馬爾加布里爾(Sigmar Gabriel)指責沙特爲在西方活動的伊斯蘭極端主義分子提供資金，並補充稱：“我們必須讓沙特明白，睜一隻眼閉一隻眼的日子已經結束。”英國自由民主黨(Liberal Democrats)前黨魁阿什當勳爵(Lord Ashdown)呼籲英國對“資助聖戰組織”的行爲展開調查，矛頭直指沙特。
The sudden increase in concern about Saudi Arabia is driven, in large part, by the rise of Isis. Western policymakers know that the battle with jihadism is as much about ideology as guns. When they look for a source of the Isis worldview, they increasingly trace it back to the Wahhabi philosophy promoted by the Saudi religious establishment.
對沙特突然激增的擔憂很大程度上是由ISIS的崛起帶來的。西方政策制定者明白，在打擊“聖戰主義”方面，訴諸意識形態與訴諸武力同等重要。在尋找ISIS世界觀的根源時，他們越來越多地追溯到了沙特宗教機構所倡導的瓦哈比主義(Wahhabi)。
Saudi influence in the west has also been weakened by other developments. The “shale revolution” in the US has made the west less dependent on Saudi oil. Meanwhile, the turmoil in the Middle East has shone a harsh light on Saudi foreign policy , with particular criticism aimed at the high level of civilian casualties caused by Saudi military intervention in Yemen, and Riyadh’s role in crushing an uprising in Bahrain in 2011.
沙特在西方的影響力也遭到了其他事態的削弱。美國的“頁岩革命”使西方國家減少了對沙特石油的依賴。與此同時，中東地區的動盪也使沙特的外交政策招致批評，尤其是針對沙特軍事幹預也門造成大量平民傷亡、以及2011年沙特在鎮壓巴林國內起義中扮演的角色。
For the moment, however, all this criticism has led only to modest adjustments in western policy. For the Saudis themselves, the most alarming change has been President Barack Obama’s determination to secure a nuclear deal with Iran, facing down fierce opposition from Saudi Arabia. Beyond the Iran deal, however, there have been only small, symbolic gestures, such as Britain’s decision, driven by human-rights concerns, to pull out of the bidding for a contract to provide training for prisons in Saudi Arabia.
然而，目前來看，所有這些批評僅僅使西方輕微調整了對沙特的政策。對沙特人自己而言，最令人擔憂的變化是，美國總統巴拉克攠巴馬(Barack Obama)不顧沙特的激烈反對，堅決要與伊朗達成核協議。但除了伊核協議之外，其他的都只是一些小的、象徵性姿態，例如，英國出於人權方面的擔憂，決定退出爲沙特監獄提供培訓的合同競標。
Western critics of Saudi Arabia want to see the gloves come off. They accuse the governments of the UK and the US of being in thrall to Saudi money. Lord Ashdown has pointed to the influence of “rich Gulf individuals” in British politics. Saudi Arabia also remains a crucial market for western arms manufacturers. Over the past 18 months the US has approved the sale of more than $24bn of weaponry to Saudi Arabia.
批評沙特的西方人士希望看到西方對沙特動真格的。他們指責英美兩國的政府受制於沙特的金元。阿什當勳爵曾指責“富裕的海灣人物”對英國政界施加了影響。此外，沙特仍是西方軍火製造商的重要市場。過去18個月，美國已批准向沙特出售價值逾240億美元的武器裝備。
There are also solid reasons, that have little to do with money, for continued western co-operation with Saudi Arabia. The past five years have demonstrated that when bad governments fall in the Middle East, they are often replaced by something far worse. The most powerful internal critics of the Saudi monarchy are not liberals but hardline Islamists. The fear that Saudi Arabia could become yet another failed state haunts the west. One senior UK diplomat warns: “Get rid of the House of Saud and you will be screaming for them to come back within six months.”
西方繼續與沙特合作，也有與金錢無關的其他充分理由。過去五年的經驗證明，中東國家的壞政府倒臺後，取代他們的人通常更加糟糕。沙特國內批評王室最猛烈的不是自由派，而是強硬的伊斯蘭主義者。對於沙特可能變成又一個失敗國家的擔憂困擾着西方。一位英國高級外交官警告稱：“如果推翻沙特王室，不出6個月你就會哭喊着要他們回來。”
Saudi Arabia’s relationship with jihadism is also complex. It is true that Islamists in Saudi Arabia have provided ideological and sometimes financial support for jihadis around the world. But it is also true that the Saudi royal family itself has been targeted by both Isis and al-Qaeda. At the same time, intelligence provided by the Saudis has been critical in thwarting some terrorist plots in the west. As one western counter-terrorism official puts it: “The Saudis are sometimes both the source of the problem and the best antidote to it.”
沙特與“聖戰主義”的關係也同樣複雜。沒錯，沙特境內的伊斯蘭主義者爲世界各地的聖戰分子提供了意識形態和（不時的）資金支持。但沙特王室自身一直是ISIS和基地組織(al-Qaeda)襲擊的目標，這也是事實。同時，沙特提供的情報，對挫敗一些針對西方的恐怖襲擊陰謀一直起着至關重要的作用。正如一位西方反恐官員所說：“沙特有時既是問題的根源也是問題的解藥。”
Some western strategists daydream about ditching the Saudi alliance in favour of a rapprochement with Iran. If international politics were a chess game, this might look like a clever gambit.
一些西方戰略人士幻想着寧願拋棄與沙特的聯盟，與伊朗修好。如果國際政治是一盤象棋，這或許看起來像一步妙棋。
