美國後院的債務危機 The debt crisis in America’s own back yard
There is never a perfect time to announce you are virtually bankrupt. For Puerto Rico, however, this week was a better moment than most. On Sunday, the island’s government released a long-planned economic report written by Anne Krueger, a former World Bank chief economist, which declared that the territory was in fiscal crisis. As governor Alejandro García Padilla put it, the island’s $72bn debts are now “not payable”.
無論什麼時間宣佈你事實上已破產都不合適。然而，對波多黎各而言，早宣佈或許更好。不久前，該島政府公佈了由世界銀行(World Bank)前首席經濟學家安妮•克魯格(Anne Krueger)撰寫的一份準備已久的經濟報告，報告宣佈這塊美國領地陷入了財政危機。正如波多黎各總督亞歷杭德羅•加西亞•帕迪利亞(Alejandro García Padilla)所言，該島目前有720億美元債務“無法償還”。But instead of sowing widespread fear, debt prices only wobbled. For with Greece in full-blown financial crisis, and the Chinese markets tumbling, Puerto Rico’s revelation seems almost a sideshow. Nevertheless, it would be a mistake to ignore what is happening in Puerto Rico. For Professor Krueger’s report highlights two important points. First, Greece is not the only place grappling with excess debt, poor governance and opaque finances. Second, America, like Europe, badly needs to become more imaginative — and practical — in dealing with excess public sector debt.
然而，結果只是債務價格出現了波動，而沒有激起廣泛的恐慌。因爲希臘爆發全面金融危機、中國股市大跌，波多黎各的境況似乎成了小事一樁。然而，忽略波多黎各事態將犯下錯誤。克魯格教授的報告強調了兩個重要問題。第一，希臘不是唯一正在努力應對債務過高、治理不善和財政不透明等問題的地方。第二，像歐洲一樣，美國在應對公共部門債務過高方面，也急需變得更有想象力、更務實。For the problem bedevilling Puerto Rico is not simply its $72bn debt pile, but the fact that it lacks any obvious mechanism to restructure it. The island could be in for a choppy time in the municipal debt markets. Other debt-laden entities, such as the state of Illinois, might soon be caught in the storm.
困擾波多黎各的問題不僅僅在於其720億美元債務，還在於它缺乏顯而易見的債務重組機制。該島的市政債市場可能開始進入一個動盪階段。其他債務纏身的實體，比如伊利諾伊州，可能不久後也將捲入風暴。
To understand this, look at Puerto Rico’s numbers. A couple of decades ago, this US territory of 3.5m people enjoyed a healthy rate of growth, driven by a large American military presence and tax breaks that attracted mainland businesses. But since then, tax breaks have ended and military budgets have been cut. Output has shrunk by around 10 per cent in real terms since 2005.
要理解這一點，不妨看一下波多黎各的數據。二三十年前，這塊擁有350萬人口的美國領地的經濟增長率相當可觀，這是因爲大規模的美國軍事存在，加上稅收優惠吸引來了美洲大陸的企業。但後來，稅收優惠終止了，軍事預算削減了。自2005年以來，按實際值計算，經濟產出減少了約10%。Normally, this might cause creditors to panic. But since global markets have been flush with liquidity, and municipal bonds offer tax breaks for American investors, money has instead flooded in. That has enabled the government to maintain a generous welfare state, and a governance culture that is (at best) inefficient and (at worst) rife with cronyism. Meanwhile, the debt-to-output ratio has surged above 100 per cent — or 150 per cent if unfunded liabilities, such as pensions, are included.
通常情況下，這或許會令債權人感到驚慌。但由於全球市場流動性充裕，市政債對美國投資者提供稅收優惠，資金反而大規模涌入。這讓波多黎各政府得以維持高福利政策，以及一種低效（往好裏說）和裙帶關係盛行（往壞裏說）的治理文化。同時，債務與產出之比猛增至逾100%——如果計入養老金等無資金準備的債務，則爲150%。This pattern is unsustainable. So Prof Krueger — entirely sensibly — proposes two initiatives: Puerto Rico must implement structural reforms, such as cutting welfare payments and labour costs; but it also needs to restructure the debt to a more sustainable level.
這一模式不可持續。所以克魯格教授非常合情合理地提出了兩條建議：波多黎各必須推行結構性改革，比如削減福利支出和勞動力成本；同時也需要重組債務，使之回到更可持續的水平上。But, as in Greece, it is unclear whether Puerto Rico’s government has the stomach for austerity. Worse still, the island’s debt structure is staggeringly complex, since the bonds have been issued by numerous different entities, with varying types of guarantees. These creditors show no desire to co-ordinate; instead, they are threatening to sue each other and the island. Thus the nightmare scenario that now haunts Puerto Rico is not so much that of Greece but Argentina: years of legal limbo, shut out of the capital markets.
但是，正如在希臘一樣，波多黎各政府是否有魄力實行緊縮政策尚不可知。更糟糕的是，該島的債務結構極其複雜，因爲債券是由數不清的不同實體發行的，擔保的類型也各不相同。這些債權人沒有表現出絲毫相互協調的意願；相反，他們威脅着要相互起訴，並起訴波多黎各政府。這樣一來，目前困擾着波多黎各的噩夢般的場景不是希臘式，而是阿根廷式的：多年的法律空白；被資本市場關在門外。Is there a solution? In theory, as Lawrence Summers, a former Treasury secretary says, one resolution would be for the International Monetary Fund to intervene. But it will not, since Puerto Rico is not a sovereign state. Washington could play an IMF-style role if it chose, since Puerto Rico, as a territory, is part of the federal system. But the Obama administration has made it clear it does not wish to intervene.
是否有解決辦法？理論上，正如美國前財長勞倫斯•薩默斯(Lawrence Summers)所說的，一個解決方案是由國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)介入。但IMF不會介入，因爲波多黎各並非主權國家。華盛頓方面如果願意的話，可以扮演類似IMF的角色。因爲波多黎各作爲一塊領地，是美國聯邦系統的一部分。但奧巴馬政府已明確表示無意介入。That suggests that the least bad remaining option is to find a third party legal referee to oversee an economic plan that forces the creditors into a compromise. America does have one existing model for this: a Chapter 9 framework that offers bankruptcy protection for public entities.
這表明，剩下的不那麼糟糕的選擇唯有找到一個第三方法律仲裁人來執行一項強令債權人達成妥協的經濟計劃。美國在這方面的確有一個現成的模式：爲公共實體提供破產保護的美國《破產法》第9章。This was used to restructure Detroit’s $18bn debt pile. That worked because it focused on restoring city services, says Kenneth Buckfire, a restructuring expert. Creditor haircuts were the result of this analysis; they were not imposed to support a failed system.
該章已用於重組底特律的180億美元債務。重組專家肯尼思•巴克菲爾(Kenneth Buckfire)說，這麼做管用，是因爲它聚焦於恢復城市服務。這一分析的結果是債權人接受債務減記；他們沒有被強制支持一個失敗的體系。But since Puerto Rico is a territory, not a city, it is not allowed to use Chapter 9 without a change in US law. This seems unlikely to occur soon, since parts of the Republican party fear that letting Puerto Rico use Chapter 9 would prompt other American entities, such as Illinois, to default too.
但是，既然波多黎各是領地而不是城市，如果不修訂美國法律，《破產法》第9章對波多黎各是不適用的。看來美國不太可能很快修訂相關法律，因爲部分共和黨人擔心，允許波多黎各適用《破產法》第9章將促使伊利諾伊州等其他美國實體也會違約。The result, then, is stalemate. Thankfully, the situation is not (yet) bad enough to spark a full-blown crisis; but piles of “unpayable” debt have a nasty way of sapping confidence and growth. Or to put it another way, the next time that US officials lecture eurozone leaders on their failure to sort out Greece, they should glance at their own backyard first; or better still, take resolute action — say, by reforming that Chapter 9 code.
那麼，結果就是僵局。幸運的是，局勢（還）沒有糟糕到引發全面危機的地步；但大量“無法償還”的債務會嚴重地打擊信心、削弱增長。或換言之，下一次美國官員們數落歐元區領導人無力解決希臘危機時，他們應該首先看一下自己的後院；更好的結果是他們採取果斷的措施，比如說修改《破產法》第9章。
