中俄達成鋪設西線天然氣管道協議

MOSCOW — Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, is adding substance to the Kremlin’s plan to shift its economic focus to Asia, as the company signs its second major gas deal with China this year.

莫斯科——天然氣巨頭俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司（Gazprom，簡稱俄氣）正在爲克里姆林宮將經濟政策聚焦亞洲的努力增磚添瓦：它與中國簽署了今年以來的第二項重大天然氣協議。

The deal for a new natural gas pipeline gives Russia additional leverage should tensions persist with the West. Although it would take years to complete, the pipeline would enable exports to China from Russia’s existing Siberian energy fields.

該協議是爲了建設一條新的天然氣管線。如果與西方的緊張關係長期得不到緩解，此項協議會讓俄羅斯擁有更多籌碼。雖然管線的建設需要多年時間才能完成，但它將使俄羅斯能夠從現有的西伯利亞油氣田向中國輸送能源。

Eventually, the deal means Russia could ship more natural gas to China than to Germany, now its largest customer. The pipeline, in theory, could also be used to divert energy supplies, currently headed to Europe, to Asia.

最終，這筆交易意味着俄羅斯向中國輸送的天然氣的規模，可以超過它向德國的輸送，而後者目前是俄羅斯最大的客戶。理論上講，這條管線還可以用於讓目前運往歐洲的能源改道，轉爲運往亞洲。

“We’re putting ambitious goals before us, and are sure they will be fulfilled,” Gazprom’s chief executive, Aleksei B. Miller, said in a statement on Sunday announcing the deal, adding that the “wide-ranging work with our Chinese colleague is developing very dynamically.”

“我們正在設定宏大的目標，我們也相信它們能夠實現，”俄氣公司的首席執行官阿列克謝·B·米勒(Alexey B Miller)週日在宣佈這筆交易的聲明中說。他還表示，“與中國同行的廣泛合作正在活躍增長。”

Chinese customers are a welcome relief. The Russian economy and its energy giants have been swooning under the pressure of low oil prices and the sanctions over the Ukraine crisis. Also on the sidelines of an Asian economic summit meeting, the Russian state bank Sberbank signed an agreement to secure about $2 billion in financing from Chinese lenders, important for replacing European financing cut off by sanctions.

中國的客戶讓俄羅斯鬆了一口氣。面對油價走低的壓力和烏克蘭危機引發的制裁，俄羅斯經濟及能源巨頭舉步維艱。此外，在亞洲經濟峯會的邊會上，國有的俄羅斯聯邦儲蓄銀行(Sberbank)還簽署了一份協議，確保了從中國多家放款機構獲得約20億美元（約合122億元人民幣）的融資。這對於抵消制裁引發的歐洲融資的枯竭至關重要。

In a sign of the mounting problems, the Russian central bank, which has spent about $30 billion in a month defending the ruble, announced Monday it would allow the currency to float freely, rather than maintain trading bands with the euro and dollar. The bank had planned to eliminate the trading corridors by the end of the year but sped up the policy shift as the economy has weakened.

俄羅斯央行在一個月的時間裏就花費了約300億美元來維持盧布的匯率。該行週一宣佈，將允許盧布自由浮動，不再維持與歐元和美元的波動區間。這顯示出俄羅斯面臨的問題正不斷增多。央行此前本已計劃在年底之前取消交易走廊，但隨着經濟的走軟，它加速了政策的轉變。

The gas deal is the latest example of the Kremlin’s deft use of pipeline politics. The design of Eurasian pipelines to strengthen Russia’s geopolitical position, sometimes compared to a slow-motion chess match, has been a strong suit for President Vladimir V. Putin since he first took office more than a decade ago.

這筆天然氣交易是克里姆林宮熟練利用“管線政治”的最新例子。歐亞管線的設計就是爲了強化俄羅斯的地緣政治地位，它有時被比作一場慢條斯理的棋局。自從俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)十多年前上臺以來，這一招一直是他的殺手鐗。

Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Corporation signed a framework agreement to build the pipeline along a so-called western corridor, which would cross into China over the Altai Mountains, between Kazakhstan and Mongolia. The deal signed in May, soon after tensions with the West spiked over the Ukraine crisis, foresees exporting Russian gas from gas fields in eastern Siberia (not yet completely developed) to China, along a route called the Power of Siberia pipeline. Gazprom said it was worth $400 billion over the decades-long lifetime of the planned project.

俄氣和中國石油天然氣集團公司（簡稱中石油）簽署了一份框架協議，計劃沿着“西部走廊”鋪設管線。此條管線將從哈薩克斯坦和蒙古中間經由阿爾泰山脈進入中國。這筆交易簽署於5月，俄羅斯與西方的衝突達到白熱化後不久。根據協議，俄羅斯計劃將來從西伯利亞東部的氣田（尚未完全開發）通過一條叫做“西伯利亞力量”的管線向中國輸送天然氣。俄氣公司稱，這個計劃中的項目爲期數十年，價值可達4000億美元。

Energy analysts, though, have been skeptical the politically hued deal announcements this year will smoothly translate into a real natural gas market in eastern Eurasia.

然而，能源行業的分析人士一直懷疑，兩國今年宣佈的這些政治色彩濃厚的協議是否能夠順利地在歐亞大陸東部建成一個真正的天然氣市場。

“It’s still a very, very long process,” said Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of Facts Global Energy, a market research firm. The pipelines require a decade or more to build. “The best thing for the Russians is to supply Europe because the capital is already sunk,” he said. “Europe can’t do without Russia and Russia can’t do without Europe. If you want to do away with dependence on Russia you need a 20-year plan.” For now, the Chinese deals are for Russia, “a way of saying we have other options.”

“這仍然是一個非常、非常漫長的過程，”市場調研企業費氏全球能源諮詢公司(Facts Global Energy)的董事長費雷敦·費沙拉基(Fereidun Fesharaki)說。這條管線需要十年，乃至更長時間才能建成。“俄羅斯最好的選擇就是爲歐洲提供能源，因爲資本已經減少了，”他說。“歐洲不能沒有俄羅斯，俄羅斯也不能沒有歐洲。如果要脫離對俄羅斯的依賴，需要制定一個爲期20年的計劃。”目前，對俄羅斯而言，與中國的協議“是爲了表明我們還有其他選擇。”

More broadly, testing the commercial prospects in China has been a slow and politically fraught exercise.

從更宏觀的層面來看，探測俄羅斯能源在中國的商業前景一直是個緩慢而充滿政治意味的過程。

Since the Ussuri River border skirmishes that marked the Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s, the Kremlin has perceived its long border with China as a security challenge as much as a commercial opportunity. The border was only fully demarcated in 2009. Despite the warm rhetoric, even simple infrastructure such as a planned new railroad bridge over the Amur River has been repeatedly delayed.

20世紀60年代，發生在烏蘇里江邊境地區的衝突標誌着中國和前蘇聯的交惡。自那時起，克里姆林宮就一直認爲，雖然它與中國的漫長邊界線意味着商業機會，但同時也代表着安全隱患。直到2009年，兩國邊界的劃分纔得到完全確立。儘管雙方措辭友善，但就連簡單的基礎設施建設也一再被推遲，比如計劃中的一條橫跨黑龍江的新鐵路橋。

Deals are picking up, though. In another agreement announced in Beijing, the China National Petroleum Corporation agreed to buy a 10 percent stake in the giant Vankor Siberian oil field, which is majority owned by new pipelines will take years to build. If completed as planned, they would export 68 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year to China.

不過，越來越多的交易正在進行。根據在北京宣佈的另一項協議，中石油同意購入萬科爾(Vankor)西伯利亞巨型油田10%的股份。該油田目前由俄羅斯石油公司(Rosneft)持有多數股份。這條新管線要花上多年時間才能建成。如果按計劃完工，每年將能向中國輸送680億立方米的天然氣。

Today, Germany is Russia’s largest customer buying 40 billion cubic meters annually. Still, the European Union as a whole would remain Russia’s largest customer, buying about twice as much as China would under the new deals.

目前，德國是俄羅斯最大的天然氣客戶，每年要向其購買400億立方米。不過，歐盟作爲一個整體，將來仍然會是俄羅斯最大的客戶，其購買量是新協議設定的中國購買量的大約兩倍。

“This is just business as usual,” Yan Vaslavski, an associate professor of political science at Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said in a telephone interview of the gas deals. Russia has no intention of diminishing gas shipments to Europe, integrally important for the Russian economy as they are. Instead, the China deals are insurance, he said: Should Europe squeeze Russian energy companies, they ensure revenue from west Siberian petroleum fields.

“情況一如既往，”莫斯科國立國際關係學院(Moscow State Institute of International Relations)的政治學副教授揚·瓦斯拉夫斯基(Yan Vaslavski)在針對這些天然氣交易的電話採訪中說。俄羅斯並不打算減少送往歐洲的天然氣，因爲這是俄羅斯經濟不可或缺的部分。與中國的交易則是一種保障，他說：假如歐洲讓俄羅斯能源公司承壓，它們還能從西伯利亞西部的油田獲得收入保障。

“Russia is not turning its back on Europe,” he said. “But if Russia doesn’t turn to the East in time, this train will leave without Russia.”

“俄羅斯並沒有背棄歐洲，”他說。“可是，如果俄羅斯沒能及時轉向東方，這輛列車就會離俄羅斯而去。”