俄羅斯侵犯波羅的海國家領空頻次劇增

The Baltic countries are registering a dramatic increase in Russian military provocations, rattling nerves in a region which fears it could be the next frontier after Ukraine in Moscow’s quest at asserting its regional power.

波羅的海國家遭遇俄羅斯軍事挑釁的次數正在驟增，區域各國情緒緊張，擔心該地區可能會成爲繼烏克蘭之後莫斯科宣示其地區實力的下一個前沿陣地。

Nato fighters policing Baltic airspace were scrambled 68 times along Lithuania’s borders this year, by far the highest count in more than 10 years. Latvia registered 150 “close incidents”, cases where Russian aircraft were found approaching and observed for risky behaviour. Estonia said its sovereign airspace had been violated by Russian aircraft five times this year, nearing the total count of seven over the previous eight years.

今年，負責波羅的海地區領空治安的北約(Nato)戰鬥機在立陶宛邊境附近緊急升空68次，爲迄今10多年來的最高頻次。拉脫維亞已發生150次“親密接觸事件”——發現俄羅斯飛機接近其領空並有危險舉動。愛沙尼亞則表示，今年該國領空曾5次遭到俄羅斯飛機的侵犯，接近過去8年的總和（7次）。

Finland has had five violations of its airspace this year against an annual average of one to two in the previous decade, while Sweden last week suffered what Carl Bildt called the “most serious airspace incursion” in his eight years as foreign minister.

芬蘭領空今年遭遇5次侵犯，之前10年平均每年僅一兩次。瑞典領空上週被侵犯，瑞典外交大臣卡爾•比爾特( Carl Bildt)稱這是他擔任外交大臣8年來“最嚴重的領空入侵”。

“A lot of people here and across northern Europe are worried about what it means for the future. It’s not benign, it’s rather unpleasant,” said James Rogers, lecturer at the Baltic Defence College. He added that the incursions were “Russia trying to remind everyone it is still a significant air power”.

波羅的海國防學院(Baltic Defence College)講師詹姆斯•羅傑斯(James Rogers)表示：“很多本區域和北歐的民衆都十分擔心，（俄羅斯）的舉動對未來意味着什麼。這並非善舉，相當令人不快。”他補充稱，侵犯領空是“俄羅斯在提醒所有人，它仍是一支重要空中力量”。

According to one western official, so far this year there have been well over a hundred quick reaction alerts – the scrambling of fighter jets – because of Russian activity in the vicinity of alliance airspace, a threefold increase over the number for the whole of 2013.

一位西方官員稱，由於俄羅斯在聯合領空附近的活動，今年迄今出現了100多次快速反應警報（戰鬥機緊急起飛），是2013年全年數量的3倍。

“[We] can attribute some of these flights to an increase in Russian military exercises and activity along Nato’s eastern borders but in many cases the Russian military is being provocative by probing airspace they are not authorised to enter,” said one senior Nato military officer, who confirmed there was significant concern over the increased number of incidents. “As in Ukraine, Russian aggressiveness in the air adds to the tension between the international community and the Kremlin.”

“（我們）可以將其中一些飛行歸因於俄羅斯在北約東部邊境的軍事演習和活動增加，但在很多例子裏，俄羅斯軍隊是在挑釁，他們進入了禁止進入的區域。”北約一高級軍官表示，“就像在烏克蘭一樣，俄羅斯在空中的大膽行爲會加劇國際社會與俄羅斯之間的緊張關係。”他證實，北約對侵犯領空事件數量的增多感到非常擔憂。

Nowhere is Russia’s growing swagger triggering more concerns than in the Baltic states, which have a history of Soviet occupation, heated political arguments with Russia and sizeable Russian populations. Mr Putin’s new argument that ethnic Russians abroad are part of a “Russian World” and as such worthy of Moscow’s protection has reignited such fears.

俄羅斯越來越招搖的舉動引發的擔憂對波羅的海地區的影響最爲嚴重，這些國家有被前蘇聯佔領的歷史，它們與俄羅斯發生過激烈的政治爭論，而且國內的俄羅斯族人口數量衆多。普京的最新說法是，海外俄羅斯族裔是“俄羅斯世界”的一部分，值得受到俄羅斯的保護，這一言論再度引發了這些擔憂。

“What is happening now in Ukraine is part of a global project,” warns Andrei Piontkovsky, a Russian political commentator highly critical of Mr Putin, adding that the president could target the Baltics next.

猛烈批評普京的俄羅斯政治評論員安德烈•皮昂科夫斯基(Andrei Piontkovsky)警告稱：“現在在烏克蘭發生的事情是（俄羅斯）全球計劃的一部分。”他補充稱，普京的下一個目標可能是波羅的海國家。

Defence officials in the Baltic sea region fret that the incidents, taken in conjunction with other recent Russian acts in the region such as the apparent abduction of an Estonian intelligence officer and the seizure of a Lithuanian fishing vessel in international waters, add up to a more assertive stance from Moscow towards the Baltics.

波羅的海地區各國的國防官員擔心，把俄羅斯最近的其他行爲（例如愛沙尼亞情報官員明顯遭綁架以及一艘立陶宛漁船在國際海域被扣）聯繫起來看，這些事件意味着俄羅斯將對波羅的海國家採取更強硬態度。