未來數月非洲之角乾旱預期減輕

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the Horn Of Africa can look forward to weaker drought conditions in the coming months. In its latest El Nino/La Nina update, the WMO says near neutral or weak La Nina conditions, which lessen the severity of drought, are the most likely scenarios for the rest of 2011.

世界氣象組織(WMO)稱，預計未來幾個月非洲之角地區的乾旱災情將會減輕。該組織在其最新的厄爾尼諾和拉尼娜氣候異常報告中說，2011年餘下時間最可能的氣候情況是接近中度或較弱的拉尼娜，這將使東非乾旱的程度減輕。

The El Nino and La Nina phenomena, which occur in the tropical Pacific, have a significant impact upon weather and climate around the globe. The World Meteorological Organization says there is a possibility that La Nina conditions, where sea surface temperatures cool, may re-emerge over the coming months. But, if this happens, it says the event is likely to be much weaker than the moderate to strong La Nina, which prevailed in 2010 and ended in May 2011.

厄爾尼諾和拉尼娜是發生在太平洋熱帶地區的現象，它們對全球的天氣和氣候造成重大影響。世界氣象組織說，未來幾個月有可能再次出現拉尼娜現象，也就是海面溫度變冷。不過，該組織說，如果發生這種現象，其程度可能比上一次“中到強度的拉尼娜”要弱得多，上一次的拉尼娜是在2010年盛行，2011年5月結束。

That La Nina was linked to disastrously wet conditions in parts of Australia, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and portions of northern South America. At the same time, it caused drought in East Africa.

那一次的拉尼娜與澳大利亞、印度尼西亞、東南亞和南美洲北部部分地區的災難性的潮溼條件有關。與此同時，它造成了東非地區的乾旱。

WMO Climate Expert Rupa Kumar Kolli says if La Nina re-emerges it would result in rainfall, which is either normal or below normal. This, he tells VOA, could potentially spell bad news for East Africa but he adds that drought conditions are still likely to be less severe than in the past two years.

世界氣象組織氣候專家魯帕·柯里說，如果再次出現拉尼娜，將導致正常或低於正常強度的降雨。他對美國之音說，對東非而言，這可能是個潛在的壞消息。但他補充說，乾旱程度仍可能比過去兩年要輕。

“There is reason to be concerned about the situation. But, at the same time, even if La Nina occurs, the current indications are that it is likely to be weak and is not going to be anywhere close to the moderate to strong La Nina that we have seen last year," said Kolli. "In that sense, even if it is slightly below normal, it is really not alarming and it is very unlikely that we will see a very severe drought condition to happen in Eastern Africa.”

柯里說：“有理由對這一狀況感到擔憂。但與此同時，就算髮生拉尼娜，目前的指標表明它的程度可能較弱，不會接近我們去年看到的“溫和至強度的拉尼娜”。從這個角度來講，就算它的程度僅略低於正常，也不令人驚恐，我們不可能看到東非地區發生非常嚴重的乾旱。”

More than 12 million people in Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somalia are struggling to cope with the worst drought to hit the Horn of Africa in 60 years. People in Somalia are particularly hard hit as they try to survive the twin disasters of conflict and drought. The United Nations has declared several regions in southern Somalia to be famine zones.

肯尼亞、埃塞俄比亞、吉布提和索馬里的1200多萬人正在艱難地應對非洲之角60年來最嚴重的乾旱。特別是索馬里人受到嚴重的影響，他們設法在衝突和乾旱的雙重災難中生存。聯合國已經宣佈，索馬里南部的幾個地區爲饑荒區。

Kolli says the drought in the Horn of Africa came as no surprise to meteorologists. He says the impact resulting from the La Nina event was expected and he says regional weather centers warned countries of the severity of the drought that was looming.

世界氣象組織的柯里表示，對氣象學家來說，非洲之角發生乾旱毫不令人驚訝。他指出，他們已預料到拉尼娜造成的這種影響。他說，地區氣象中心曾經警告這些國家，嚴重的旱災已若隱若現。

Once countries have been warned of a possible weather-related disaster, he tells VOA it is up to their governments to take appropriate measures to try to lessen the expected impact.

他對美國之音說，一旦一個國家被警告可能發生與氣候相關的災害，將由該國的政府採取適當措施以設法減輕所預料的影響。

“Famines are man-made, whereas droughts are natural parts of the system. So, the drought warnings were given sufficiently in advance to the policy makers,"i added. "But, the famine conditions are a combination of the drought and other factors, which actually create a situation where people have no access to food.”

柯里說：“饑荒是人爲的，而乾旱是自然發生的。因此，我們會足夠提前向決策者發出乾旱警告。但是，饑荒是乾旱和其它因素的綜合結果，這些因素導致人們無法獲得食物。”

WMO Climate Expert Kolli says meteorologists are trying to improve ways of getting policy makers to take their warnings more seriously. He says they are trying to see how they can better communicate weather and climate information. He says it is important to make policy makers understand they must take appropriate decisions based on the regional forecasts they receive.

世界氣象組織的氣候專家柯里說，氣象學家正設法讓決策者更認真地對待他們發出的警告。他說，他們正設法研究如何能更好地交流天氣和氣候信息。他說，讓決策者懂得他們必須根據所獲得的區域預測信息作出正確的決定是非常重要的。