電玩行業的數碼分水嶺隨這個聖誕假期而至
SEATTLE — This holiday season could be remembered as a digital watershed for the games business, the moment when the old way of selling video games — on discs in boxes — finally gave way to downloads.
西雅圖——這個聖誕假期可以被視爲遊戲行業的數碼分水嶺，以盒裝光盤銷售遊戲的舊方式最終被下載取代。
The industry has been pointed in this direction for years. But the signs of a sharp turning point have piled up in the last month, as new data points have painted conflicting pictures of the game industry.
多年前就有人指出，這是電子遊戲行業未來的方向。但深刻變革的轉折點一直在醞釀當中，直至上個月才真正到來。不過，新的數據爲這一行業描繪了種種互相矛盾的畫面。
On one hand, recent market research shows that physical game sales declined in November, and GameStop, a leading retailer, reported disappointing earnings that made its stock tumble.
一方面，最近的市場研究顯示，11月，實體遊戲的銷量顯著下降，頂尖零售商GameStop的盈利令人失望，導致其股價下跌。
On the other, game companies swear that things are going great. Big titles are setting sales records, and Sony, the leading maker of game consoles, says the latest PlayStation has been selling at a faster clip than any previous generation of the hardware.
另一方面，遊戲公司說他們的生意非常好。大公司創下了銷售記錄，電視遊戲設備的頂尖生產者索尼公司稱，公司最新的PlayStation的發售比以往每一代的硬件都快。
Why the disparity?
爲什麼會有這種落差？
A number of factors are at play, but none as significant as the industry’s march toward a future of games downloaded over the Internet rather than bought in stores, analysts said. All mobile games are delivered over the Internet, as are nearly all PC games. But the transition for console games — the biggest segment of the business — has been far slower. Large game files could take hours to download and quickly fill a console’s hard drive.
分析師們說很多因素在起作用，但最重要的是行業的趨勢是從互聯網下載遊戲，而不是從實體店購買遊戲。所有手機遊戲都是從網上購買的，大多數電腦遊戲也是如此。但是電視遊戲（這個行業最大的一塊）的步伐一直較爲緩慢。大型遊戲文件需要花好幾個小時下載，會很快裝滿電視遊戲設備的硬盤。
Now, faster broadband speeds and the bigger hard drives in the latest generation of consoles are reducing those obstructions.
現在，有了更快的帶寬，新一代的電視遊戲設備也有了更大的硬盤，這些障礙就消除了。
“It finally feels like the inevitable is becoming the inevitable,” said Evan Wilson, an analyst who follows the game industry for Pacific Crest Securities. “It feels like this is the holiday season where it’s finally having a big impact.”
“最終，不可避免的變化好像真的變得不可避免了，”太平洋皇冠證券(Pacific Crest Securities)負責遊戲行業的分析師伊萬·威爾遜(Evan Wilson)說。“好像就是這個假期，變革終於產生了巨大影響。”
Electronic Arts, the big games publisher behind Madden and Need for Speed, says about 20 percent of its new console games are now downloaded, compared with around 10 to 15 percent last year. For other publishers, the number may be 25 percent or more.
遊戲大廠藝電公司(Electronic Arts)曾經推出《Madden》系列和《極品飛車》(Need for Speed)，它聲稱，公司推出的電視遊戲中，目前有20%是通過下載購買，去年這個數字是10%到15%。其他公司的下載銷售比例則佔25%或更多。
As a result, it is becoming harder to judge the health of the industry based on sales of physical game discs. NPD Group, a research firm that tracks retail sales in the United States, showed a 7 percent decline in November game sales from the same month a year ago.
因此，要根據實體遊戲光碟銷量來判斷這個行業走勢是否良好，就變得更加困難。調查公司NPD集團研究了美國的零售數據，表明今年11月，遊戲銷量比去年11月下降了7%。
Mr. Wilson of Pacific Crest characterized the figures in the title of a research report: “Shockingly Bad NPD Data Shows Big Physical Challenges.”
太平洋皇冠證券的威爾遜在一份報告的標題中概括了一下：“極糟的NPD數據表明實體銷售面臨巨大挑戰”。
A couple of weeks earlier, there was similarly grim news from GameStop, the big specialty retailer, which blamed a disappointing earnings report for the period ending Oct. 31 on weak new game software and hardware sales.
幾周前，大型遊戲業零售商GameStop也傳來類似的嚴峻消息，它認爲，盈利報表之所以令人失望，主要是由於截至10月31日，新的遊戲軟件與硬件都銷量不佳。
Executives at GameStop caused a further stir when they said one of the most anticipated games of the season, Star Wars: Battlefront, had missed their internal sales forecasts during the quarter. The stock of Electronic Arts, the game’s publisher, fell 5 percent the day of the remarks.
GameStop的管理人員說，本季最受期待的遊戲之一《星球大戰：前線》(Star Wars: Battlefront)在本季的網絡銷售沒有達到預期，這番話更加令人震驚。消息傳出當日，該遊戲的發行者藝電公司的股票就下跌了5%。
The numbers were particularly striking because if game sales are ever going to grow, the time is now. The biggest games of the year have just landed on store shelves — including Fallout 4, Call of Duty: Black Ops 3, and Star Wars: Battlefront — and demand for them is running high among holiday gift buyers.
這些數字之所以令人震驚是因爲，如果說遊戲銷量有所增長，那麼時間就是現在。今年最大的幾個遊戲都已經上架，包括《輻射4》(Fallout 4)、《使命召喚12： 黑色行動3》(Call of Duty: Black Ops 3)和《星球大戰：前線》。爲假日購買禮物的人正好需要買遊戲。
What is more, the industry is in the sweet spot of the hardware cycle, when the latest consoles from Sony and Microsoft are in plentiful supply and their prices have come down, and game publishers are cranking out titles that better exploit their capabilities.
此外，在硬件更新的循環中，這個行業正處於有利階段，索尼和微軟最新的電視遊戲設備供應充足，價格有所下降，遊戲生產商正在推出能儘量利用遊戲機新功能的遊戲。
Sony, for one, says its console sales have never been better. The company reported that it sold 30.2 million PlayStation 4s worldwide as of late November, just days after the second anniversary of the product. By comparison, it took around two years and two months for Sony to ship about 30 million PlayStation 2s — the previous high-water mark for Sony in the game business.
比如，索尼說，公司的電視遊戲機銷量之好堪稱前所未有。11月，公司在全球售出了3020萬臺PlayStation 4S電視遊戲機，要知道這款產品剛剛推出兩年而已。與之相對照，此前索尼花了兩年另兩個月時間，才售出了3000萬臺PlayStation 2S——而那是索尼在遊戲行業內的上一次高峯。
One factor in NPD’s declining game sales is that the research firm does not include games that are bundled with consoles — an increasingly popular option for buying the machines — in its software sales data. But a much bigger reason is that it does not include digital downloads of games in its monthly tallies of the industry.
NPD統計出遊戲銷量下降還有另一個原因，那就是該調查公司沒有把和電視遊戲設備捆綁銷售的遊戲統計入軟件銷售數據，而這種捆綁銷售方式已經日益爲電視遊戲機買家所青睞。但是，還有一個更大的原因，那就是它沒有把通過數字下載銷售的遊戲計入每月賬目當中。
Liam Callahan, an analyst at NPD, said the firm includes digital sales in a game report that comes out every quarter. For the first nine months of the year, game spending on physical formats was flat compared with the same period in 2014. When digital sales were included, there was an 8 percent increase, he said.
NPD分析師連姆·卡拉漢(Liam Callahan)說，公司把網絡銷售計入了另一份每季度發表的遊戲業統計報告中。他說，在今年的前9個月裏，遊戲業的實體光盤銷售是和2014年同期持平的，如果把網絡銷售數據加進來，就有8%的增長。
“It’s clear digital downloading is becoming a bigger deal,” said Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities.
“顯然，數字下載成了更大的交易，”韋德布拉什證券(Wedbush Securities)的分析師邁克爾·帕奇塔(Michael Pachter)說。
After GameStop’s comments about Star Wars: Battlefront rattled investors, a senior executive at Electronic Arts, Peter Moore, said at a conference that there was “no weakness that is perceptible yet in the title.” He reiterated the company’s previous projection that it would sell 13 million copies of the game during its fiscal year.
GameStop對《星球大戰：前線》的評價令投資者深感不安，其後，藝電公司的資深執行官彼得·摩爾(Peter Moore)在一次會議上說，“迄今這個遊戲沒有什麼明顯的弱點，”他一再重申了公司之前的預測：這個遊戲將在本財政年度售出1300萬份。
The bigger threat appears to be for retailers that fail to adjust to the changing market. The list of retailers that have been vaporized by the Internet is long, including Blockbuster in movies, Tower Records in music and Virgin Megastores in both.
對於零售商來說，更大的威脅在於它沒有能夠針對變化的市場進行調整。受網絡衝擊而消失的零售商是個很長的名單，其中包括銷售影碟的Blockbuster，銷售唱片的Tower Records，以及二者兼顧的Virgin Megastores。
GameStop has increased its own presence in Internet-delivered games, but those changes have not moved the needle much. The company’s digital revenue in its last quarter amounted to less than 2 percent of its total revenue. There are limits to how much the company can sell digitally, though, since Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo operate the online portals from which the games are downloaded.
GameStop也參與到網絡銷售遊戲中來，但這個舉措並沒帶來多大改變。公司上季度在網絡銷售方面的業績僅佔總收入的不到2%。不過，公司的網絡銷售是受到限制的，因爲微軟、索尼和任天堂把持着遊戲下載的門戶。
GameStop has tried to diversify beyond video games by acquiring one retail chain that offers wireless products and another that sells and repairs Apple devices. Joey Mooring, a spokesman for GameStop, said the company’s in-store staff members provide guidance for customers. And through its trade-in program for used games, customers can get credits toward the purchase of new games.
GameStop試圖令商品多樣化，跳出遊戲光碟的範疇，它收購了一個出售無線產品的零售連鎖，以及另一個出售和維修蘋果設備的連鎖店。GameStop的發言人喬伊·莫寧(Joey Mooring)說，公司的店內職員會指導顧客購物。而且，通過舊遊戲的以舊換新服務，顧客還可以得到信用點，換購新遊戲。
“Customers cannot access that expertise downloading a game, nor can they trade in a digital game for currency that can be applied to the purchase of their next game,” Mr. Mooring said in an email.
“有的顧客不具備下載遊戲的知識，而且顧客也不能把網絡版本的遊戲換成現金購買下一個遊戲，”莫寧在電子郵件中說。
Eric Lempel, senior vice president for marketing at Sony’s American games division, agreed with the idea that many gamers want to talk to store staff members before making a purchase. The convenience of downloading a game directly to a console is appealing too, though.
索尼美國遊戲分部市場部門的資深副總裁埃裏克·蘭佩爾(Eric Lempel)說同意，很多玩家在購買遊戲之前，都想先和店員聊聊。不過直接下載遊戲到電視遊戲設備的便利性也很誘人。
“A lot of people are finding it easier to buy online,” Mr. Lempel said. “It’s open 24 hours a day.”
“很多人都覺得，還是在網上買更方便，”蘭佩爾說，“它是一天24小時開張的。”
