中國未來3年擬投資4.7萬億元興建交通設施

China is to pump almost Rmb5tn ($770bn) into transport infrastructure over the next three years, in a sign of its determination to use state investment to keep the economy humming.

中國將在未來三年期間投入近5萬億元人民幣（合7700億美元）建設交通基礎設施，這個跡象表明政府決心動用國家投資來保持經濟“轟鳴”。

However, analysts said the announcement by the transport ministry added to a sense of confusion about the direction of economic policy. Infrastructure spending served China well when it was growing rapidly and seeking to build a modern economy, but in recent years it has resulted in white elephants, industrial overcapacity, economic distortions and debt.

不過，分析師們表示，交通運輸部的宣佈令人對中國經濟政策的走向更加困惑。在中國經濟高速增長和尋求打造現代化經濟的年代，基建支出對國家十分有用，但近年這類支出帶來了大而無當的工程、工業產能過剩、經濟扭曲以及債務。

The announcement yesterday of the spending programme — Rmb5tn is equivalent to 6.9 per cent of China’s 2015 gross domestic product — comes despite other influential voices warning this week of the alarming degree of leverage in the Chinese economy.

與昨日宣佈這一支出計劃（5萬億元人民幣相當於中國2015年國內生產總值的6.9%）似乎矛盾的是，本週一些有影響力的聲音警告稱，中國經濟的槓桿高得令人震驚。

On Monday, Communist party mouthpiece the People’s Daily carried a front-page interview with an “authoritative figure”, who said the country’s soaring debt levels could lead to “systemic financial risks”.

週一，中共機關報《人民日報》頭版發表對“權威人士”的採訪，稱中國不斷飆升的債務水平可能導致“系統性金融風險”。

“This week is a week of mixed signals,” said Andrew Batson, an economist at Gavekal Dragonomics in Beijing. “They’re swinging between poles of emphasising support for growth and emphasising structural reform. It’s not clear what message they are trying to send.”

“本週是各種信號混雜的一個星期，”北京龍洲經訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)的白安儒(Andrew Batson)表示， “他們在強調支持增長與強調結構改革的兩極之間搖擺。不清楚他們想要傳遞什麼信息。”

It is unclear to what extent the funding targets acknowledged this week are new or previously budgeted and approved projects. Many are likely to have been flagged in the five-year plan, approved in March at the annual legislative meeting.

目前尚不清楚最新宣佈的支出目標在多大程度上涉及新資金，在多大程度上涉及已編列預算且審批通過的項目。很有可能的是，不少項目已被列入3月全國人大年度會議批准的五年規劃。

Under a joint action plan from the ministry and the National Development and Reform Commission, Rmb4.7tn will be provided for 303 projects, including railways, roads, waterways, airports and metro systems.

根據中國國家發展改革委(NDRC)和交通運輸部聯合印發的《交通基礎設施重大工程建設三年行動計劃》，未來三年擬重點推進303個項目（包括鐵路、公路、水路、機場和城市軌道交通項目），涉及項目總投資4.7萬億元人民幣。

“The question is how that amount is financed. So it’s ultimately about monetary policy, because ultimately most infrastructure spending is financed by debt,” Mr Batson said.

“現在的問題是這些資金將從哪裏籌集。因此，最終而言關鍵在於貨幣政策，因爲大部分基建支出的資金歸根結底將通過債務籌集，”白安儒表示。

The figure, in an article from the official transportation news service republished yesterday on the ministry’s website, has refocused attention on the scale of China’s continuing infrastructure investment.

4.7萬億元人民幣的數字最初來自官方的中國交通新聞網的一篇文章，該文昨日被交通運輸部官網轉載。它再度令人關注中國基礎設施投資所保持的規模。

The article asserts that transportation infrastructure has failed to keep pace with the requirements of China’s social and economic development in terms of coverage and quality.

該文斷言，與中國的經濟社會發展需求相比，交通基礎設施在覆蓋範圍和質量水平等方面還存在較大差距。

It calls for a concerted drive to enhance and maintain the national network.

文章呼籲做出全方位努力，完善和維護覆蓋全國的交通網絡。

The latest round of funding is likely to benefit the flagging heavy industry and construction sectors and follows an announcement from the NDRC on Tuesday that Rmb1.6tn would be ploughed into 130 projects in the ailing rust belt of the north-eastern provinces.

最新一輪的資金很可能造福於低迷的重工業和建築業。此前國家發改委週二宣佈，將向東北三省困境中的“鏽帶”的130個項目投入1.6萬億元人民幣。

Zhou Jianping, the NDRC official in charge of reviving the north-east, said on Tuesday that the funds could not be considered a subsidy from Beijing to the struggling region. Rather, he said, funds would be allocated by project.

發改委東北等老工業基地振興司司長周建平週二表示，這些資金不能被視爲北京方面對困境中的東北地區的“補貼”。他表示，資金將根據項目進行分配。

“If it is appropriate, then we will give some money,” he said.

“只要項目是適當的，我們就會撥出資金，”他說。