什麼是新興市場 What is an emerging market?

What is an emerging market?

什麼是新興市場？

The term began as a euphemism for the pejorative-sounding “third world” but, as the FT argues, “emerging market” now stands for a haphazard collection of countries with varying economic sizes and growth rates.

這個詞原本是聽起來帶有貶義的“第三世界”的委婉說法，但英國《金融時報》認爲，“新興市場”現在代表一個由不同經濟規模、不同增長率國家組成的大雜燴。

The classification matters primarily because of index providers such as MSCI and JPMorgan that have a major influence over how international portfolio investors allocate their money. An estimated $10.3tn is invested in so-called emerging markets.

分類之所以重要，主要是因爲MSCI明晟和摩根大通(JPMorgan)等指數提供商對國際證券投資者配置資金的方式有重大影響。據估計，總共有10.3萬億美元的資金投入了所謂的新興市場。

This helps explain why Greece’s stock market actually rallied when the country was demoted from developed to emerging status by MSCI in November 2013. Less than $200m of passive money tracking developed market indices would seep out of Greece as a result, according to one HSBC estimate, while inflows from emerging markets investors could top $1bn.

這有助於解釋爲何2013年11月MSCI將希臘從發達市場降級爲新興市場時，希臘股市反而上漲了。根據匯豐(HSBC)的一項估計，那次降級導致不到2億美元追蹤發達市場指數的被動資金從希臘“滲出”，而新興市場投資者投入該國的資金可能突破了10億美元。

Just how many emerging markets are there?

新興市場到底有多少個？

According to the International Monetary Fund 152. Just 23, says MSCI.

按國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的說法是152個。按MSCI的說法則只有23個。

The IMF classification basically comes from dividing the world in two: advanced economies, and emerging and developing economies. Its criteria are per capita income, export diversification and degree of integration into the global financial system.

IMF的分類基本是將世界一分爲二：發達經濟體，以及新興和發展中經濟體。其劃分標準是人均收入、出口的多樣化以及融入全球金融體系的程度。

MSCI, by contrast, approaches the issue from the point of view of investible equities, so its division of the world into developed, emerging and Frontier markets is based on the level of market access to foreign investors, and standards of size and liquidity.

相比之下，MSCI是從可投資股票的角度來處理這一問題，因此它依據外國投資者的市場準入程度以及規模和流動性標準，將世界分爲發達、新興和前沿市場。

MSCI offers a Frontier Emerging Markets Index, with 163 equities from 28 countries — of which four: Colombia, Egypt, Peru and the Philippines are also represented in its Emerging Markets Index. Launched in 1988 it includes the shares of 838 listed companies from just 23 countries including 85 per cent of the market capitalisation of equities in each nation, weighted according to free float (the shares available to investors).

MSCI提供一個前沿市場指數(MSCI Frontier Emerging Markets Index)，包含28個國家的163只股票——其中，哥倫比亞、埃及、祕魯和菲律賓同時也是MSCI新興市場指數(MSCI EM Index)的構成部分。1988年推出的MSCI新興市場指數包含僅23個國家的838家上市公司的股票，以自由流通股（投資者可以購買的股票）加權計算，該指數涵蓋了其中每一個國家股票市值的85%。

Do emerging markets actually emerge?

新興市場真的在興起嗎？

Not really. Argentina once had developed status and lost it — as did Greece. Japan and Singapore are widely said to have gained developed status since the second world war, but others, such as Venezuela, seem to be “submerging” instead in that its economy has imploded under policy mismanagement, with soaring inflation, a collapsing currency and widespread shortages of the most basic household essentials.

並非如此。阿根廷曾擁有發達市場的身份，但又失去了——希臘也是如此。人們普遍認爲日本和新加坡在二戰後贏得了發達市場的身份，但其他國家，比如委內瑞拉，似乎反而是在“下潛”，其經濟因政策管理不善而崩潰，造成通脹飆升、貨幣急劇貶值、以及最基本的生活必需品普遍短缺。

At issue is an idea implicit in the emerging markets concept: that those economies are on the way up, riding an escalator to developed market status. Some may be. But others are not.

目前的爭議焦點是暗含在新興市場概念中的一個看法，即新興市場經濟體正在興起、搭上了升爲發達市場的扶梯。其中一些經濟體可能是這樣。但另一些並非如此。

Why all the fuss about this term now?

爲什麼現在要拿這個詞大做文章？

Because investors, economists and commentators are coming to the conclusion that it has outlived its usefulness and has actually become counter-productive.

因爲投資者、經濟學家和評論人士正得出一個結論：這個詞過時了，不僅不再有用，而且實際上還產生了反效果。