本土勞動力成本上漲 東盟受益中國製造業外遷
Just over one-third of the manufacturers in China’s Pearl River delta — the country’s export powerhouse — plan to shift production capacity to cheaper locations within the country or to bases in southeast Asia, Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka, a survey of manufacturers shows.
一項針對製造商展開的調查顯示，在中國的出口基地珠江三角洲地區，大約三分之一的製造商計劃將生產產能轉移至國內勞動力成本更爲低廉的地區或者東南亞、孟加拉國、印度和斯里蘭卡地區。
The main motivation for the capacity relocations is labour shortages that are driving wages higher and reinforcing pressures for more generous social welfare payments, according to a survey of 290 manufacturers in the delta region conducted by Standard Chartered in February and March this year.
渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)在今年2月和3月對珠三角地區290家制造商展開的調查顯示，企業轉移產能的主要動機是勞動力短缺推動薪資上漲，並使得企業不得不支付更爲慷慨的社會福利繳款。Survey respondents said they expected migrant worker wages to rise 8.4 per cent this year, up from 8.1 per cent last year (see chart) — suggesting a real wage growth of 6.8 per cent after allowing for a projected inflation of 1.6 per cent, according to Kelvin Lau, an author of the Standard Chartered report.
受訪者表示，他們預計今年農民工薪資將上漲8.4%，高於去年8.1%的漲幅（見右邊的圖表）。渣打報告編制人之一劉健恆(Kelvin Lau)表示，這意味着在計入1.6%的預期通脹率之後，實際的薪資漲幅將是6.8%。
The finding corresponds with a nationwide survey of blue collar wages in April by China Confidential, an FT research service, which showed a year-on-year wage increase of 7.8 per cent.
該報告結論與英國《金融時報》旗下研究服務機構《中國投資參考》(China Confidential)今年4月對全國藍領工人薪資的調查相符，後者顯示藍領工人薪資同比上漲7.8%。Plans to relocate factories away from the delta area — which generates 27 per cent of the country’s exports and receives almost 20 per cent of its inward foreign direct investment (FDI) — reveal a divergence in destinations between some relatively low-cost inland areas of China and countries across Asia.
將工廠搬遷出珠三角地區的計劃揭示出，不同企業計劃搬遷的目的地不同，有的要搬到勞動力成本相對較低的中國內陸地區，而有的則要搬遷到其他亞洲國家。珠三角地區貢獻了中國27%的出口，並接收了近20%的投向中國的外商直接投資(FDI)。Some 20 per cent of survey respondents said they would move inland, down from 28 per cent in the same survey last year, while 11 per cent said they would move overseas, down slightly from 13 per cent in last year’s survey. Although the findings suggest a big further shift out of the delta area, most companies opted to stay put while boosting automation and other equipment investments to defray rising labour costs (see chart).
約20%的受訪者表示，它們將會搬到內地，去年同一調查中這一比例爲28%；同時11%的受訪者表示，它們將搬到海外，略低於去年調查的13%。儘管該報告表明製造商進一步大規模撤出珠三角，但大多數公司仍選擇留在當地，同時提升自動化水平和加大其他設備投資來抵消勞動力成本上升的影響（見左邊的圖表）。The 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) is set to become the biggest beneficiary of the delta area’s waning competitiveness, the survey found. This is underlined by other advantages Asean enjoys; its labour force is expected to expand by 70m workers between 2010 and 2030, while China’s is likely to contract by the same margin, according to United Nations projections.
該調查發現，東盟(Asean)十國將會成爲珠三角地區競爭力下降的最大受益者。東盟的其他優勢強化了這一點：聯合國預計，從2010年到2030年該地區將增加7000萬勞動力，同時中國可能減少這麼多勞動力。“ASEAN is likely to benefit from comparatively low wage costs and abundant labour supply over the next 20 years,” the Standard Chartered report says. “Manufacturers shifting production to Asean are also positioning themselves to capture a share of the region’s growing consumer market, driven by high economic growth and a rising middle class.”
渣打報告顯示：“東盟可能在未來二十年受益於相對較低的薪資成本和充裕的勞動力供應。隨着東盟地區經濟高速增長和中產階層人數日益增加，將生產轉移到東盟的製造商也在佈局爭取在這個日益增長的消費市場分得一杯羹。”Given the weight of the delta area in global FDI flows, even a relatively minor relocation could have a big effect on investment into recipient countries. In 2013, for example, a total of $106.1bn in FDI entered the Pearl River delta, nearly four times the amount flowing into India, nearly five times that into Indonesia and 12 times that into Vietnam. Similarly, the delta area’s annual exports — of $607bn in 2013 — vastly exceed those from each Asean country.
鑑於珠三角地區在全球FDI流動中佔着較大比重，即便是較小規模的產能遷移也可能對投資接受國產生巨大影響。例如，2013年，進入珠三角地區的FDI總額達1061億美元，幾乎是進入印度的FDI的四倍，接近印尼的5倍，是越南的12倍。珠三角地區的年出口額（2013年爲6070億美元）也遠遠超過東盟各國。Among survey respondents who said they plan to move manufacturing capacity overseas, 36 per cent favoured moving into Vietnam, 25 per cent into Cambodia, 10 per cent into Bangladesh, 10 per cent into Indonesia, 5 per cent into India, 5 per cent into Sri Lanka, 5 per cent into Thailand and 3 per cent into the Philippines, Standard Chartered said.
渣打表示，在計劃將製造產能遷往海外的受訪企業當中，36%有意遷往越南，25%有意遷到柬埔寨，10%想遷到孟加拉國，10%想遷到印尼，5%想遷往印度，5%想遷往斯里蘭卡，5%想遷往泰國，3%想遷往菲律賓。
