美國下調中國玉米進口預期

The perils of forecasting the Chinese agricultural market came to the fore earlier this month when the US Department of Agriculture slashed its predictions for Chinese corn imports.

本月早些時候，對中國農產品市場的風險預測得到了驗證，美國農業部(USDA)大幅下調了其對中國玉米進口的預測。

Last year, the USDA reckoned China was set to become the largest importer of grain. But mounting evidence of rising inventories and falling demand triggered a rethink and it has dramatically cut its forecasts. Last year’s long-term import forecast of 22m tonnes for 2023/24 has been reduced to just 6.5m.

去年，美國農業部估計，中國將成爲全球最大玉米進口國。但越來越多的證據顯示，中國庫存增加和需求下滑，促使美國農業部改變想法，並大幅下調了其預測。去年，美國農業部對2023/24年度中國玉米進口的長期預測爲2200萬噸，如今已被下調至區區650萬噸。

“The whole picture has really changed over the past 18 months or so,” said Fred Gale, senior economist at the USDA’s economic research service.

美國農業部經濟研究局高級經濟學家弗雷德•蓋爾(Fred Gale)表示：“過去18個月左右，整體狀況確實發生了變化。”

Stronger demand for overseas, especially US, corn in 2011 and 2012, saw analysts both inside and outside China predict the country would become a net importer of the grain, which is mainly used for livestock and poultry feed and processed foods.

2011年和2012年中國對海外（特別是美國）玉米的需求上升，使得中國國內外分析人士都預測，中國將成爲玉米淨進口國。玉米主要用做牲畜和家禽飼料以及加工食品。

So what happened?

那麼發生了什麼？

After record crops in 2012 and 2013, and an abrupt drop off in consumption, China has found itself with a huge corn stockpile.

在2012年和2013年產量創下紀錄後，消費突然下滑，中國發現本國出現大量玉米庫存。

“It could take years for China to dispose of such large surpluses,” says the USDA in its latest report on the country’s agricultural imports.

美國農業部在有關中國農產品進口的最新報告中稱：“中國可能需要數年來消化如此大規模的過剩庫存。”

Apart from the favourable weather, the story behind the rise in Chinese inventories will be familiar to traders in sugar and cotton. Beijing’s farmer support policies mean a higher support price for corn compared with international prices. Not only does it encourage domestic production but also purchases of cheap imports as global grain prices plunged.

除了氣候條件有利之外，中國玉米庫存上升的內情與糖和棉花一樣，糖和棉花貿易商對此相當熟悉。中國農業補貼政策意味着，與國際價格相比，中國玉米價格更高。這不僅鼓勵了國內生產，還促使中國在全球糧價下挫之際購買廉價進口玉米。

Reserves also ballooned as authorities bought domestic corn to support the market during the 2013/14 crop year, raising official corn stocks to 100m tonnes, about half of the country’s annual consumption.

2013/14作物年度期間，隨着中國政府購買國產玉米支撐玉米市場，玉米儲備也隨之增加。官方玉米庫存升至1億噸，約佔中國年度消費量的一半。

Another factor has been a surge in Chinese imports of sorghum and barley, a corn substitute, says Mr Gale. Sorghum and barley — which have no import quotas unlike other grains — jumped to 11.5m tonnes in the 2014/15 crop year from 1.7m in 2010/11, according to USDA data.

蓋爾表示，另一個因素是中國高粱和大麥（都是玉米替代品）的進口飆升。根據美國農業部的數據，2014/15作物年度，高粱和大麥（與其他糧食不同，沒有進口配額限制）進口量從2010/11年度的170萬噸飆升至1150萬噸。

Although authorities placed 63m tonnes of corn through auctions to try to reduce its stockpile, only 25m tonnes were purchased, says the USDA. In spite of this, Beijing has announced that it would buy corn from the 2014 harvest to support prices. Current stock levels for corn are at a 14-year high.

美國農業部表示，儘管中國政府爲減少庫存拍賣6300萬噸玉米，但成交量只有2500萬噸。即便如此，中國政府仍宣佈將收購2014年收穫的玉米，以支撐價格。目前的玉米庫存爲14年以來的高點。

Even when China does eventually turn to imports, it is likely to try to keep this to the minimum. Government officials view agricultural imports as unavoidable but also appear to distrust international markets, according to the USDA report.

儘管中國最終仍會轉向玉米進口，但中國可能會努力將進口量降至最低。根據美國農業部的報告，中國政府官員將農產品進口視爲不可避免之舉，但似乎不相信國際市場。

“The food security strategy is strongly influenced by the perceived dominance of imports and foreign companies in China’s soyabean industry, which has been described as a potential threat to the country’s soyabean supply,” it says.

報告稱：“在中國大豆行業，進口產品以及外資企業明顯占主導地位，這強烈影響着食品安全戰略，這些被視爲中國大豆供應的潛在威脅。”

This stance helps explain China’s actions over food trade over the past few years. First, it has diversified food import sources in order to give the country’s importers greater price negotiating power as well as reduce risks from a potential trade embargo. For example, China’s authorities opened up its market to corn from Argentina and Ukraine in 2012 as imports from the US began increasing.

這種態度有助於解釋過去幾年中國在食品貿易方面的舉措。爲了賦予中國進口商更大的價格談判權，同時降低可能的貿易禁運的風險，中國對食品進口來源實現了多樣化。例如，2012年，隨着來自美國的進口玉米的增加，中國政府向產自阿根廷和烏克蘭的玉米開放了市場。

Second, China is looking to gain greater control over its agricultural import supply chains through overseas investments. The move by COFCO — or China National Cereals, Oil and Foodstuffs Corp — where the state-owned group took a stake in an agriculture joint venture with Noble Group, and separately purchased a controlling stake in Dutch agricultural trading house Nidera, seems to follow that strategy.

其次，中國指望通過海外投資獲得對其農產品進口供應鏈獲得更大控制。國有企業中糧(COFCO)與來寶集團(Noble Group)組建了一家農業合資公司，另外還購入荷蘭農產品貿易集團Nidera的控股權，這些舉措似乎是在遵循上述戰略。

A rise in overseas investments will offer a larger share of profits for Chinese companies, establish reliable supplies for the domestic market, and gain more influence over international prices, says the report.

報告稱，擴大海外投資將讓中國企業獲得更多利潤、爲國內市場取得可靠供應，並對國際價格施加更大影響。