玉米收成"災難"將推高美國肉價
Pork and chicken will join beef on the menu of expensive meats as drought and US ethanol policy combine in a corn "disaster", the head of the world's largest pork producer has said.
全世界最大的豬肉生產商負責人表示，由於乾旱和美國的乙醇政策引發了一場玉米"災難"，豬肉和雞肉將變得和牛肉一樣價格不菲。The cost of the main ingredients in animal feed, corn and soyameal, have set records this month as the worst drought in half a century and extreme heat damages crops in the US, the world's main surplus producer.
隨着高溫天氣和半個世紀最嚴重乾旱影響美國（世界主要盈餘生產國）的穀物收成，動物飼料的主要原料——玉米和大豆粉的價格本月升至紀錄高位。"Beef is simply going to be too expensive to eat. Pork is not going to be too far behind. Chicken is catching up fast," said Larry Pope, chief executive of Smithfield Foods. "Are we going to really take protein away from Americans?"
Smithfield Foods的首席執行官拉里•波普(Larry Pope)說："人們就快吃不起牛肉了，吃不起豬肉的日子也不會太遠，雞肉也在快速趕超。我們真的要讓美國人吃不起蛋白質嗎？"
Smithfield estimates the US corn crop will yield less than 140 bushels an acre and possibly 130 bushels, which Mr Pope said would sharply reduce harvest expectations at a time of scarce global supplies. The US government forecasts average yields of 146 bushels.
Smithfield估計，美國每英畝的玉米產量將不足140蒲式耳，可能爲130蒲式耳。波普表示，在全球供應本已匱乏的情況下，這將大幅降低產量預期。美國政府預測每英畝玉米產量平均爲146蒲式耳。"I'll use the word catastrophe – that's my definition," Mr Pope told the Financial Times in an interview.
波普在接受英國《金融時報》採訪時表示，"我會用到‘災難'這個詞——這是我的定義。"Meat producers feel pressure when feed prices surge. Smithfield shares fell 13 per cent in the month to Tuesday.
飼料價格飆升給肉類生產企業帶來了壓力。截至本週二，Smithfield的股價本月已下跌13%。Mr Pope said the company has used futures to lock in feed costs "well into" the spring of 2013. He had to defend the position at a board meeting on June 18, before corn had jumped to a record $8 a bushel.
波普指出，該公司已利用期貨交易鎖定了截至2013年春季的飼料成本。他曾不得不在6月18日的董事會會議上爲這一做法辯護，隨後玉米價格升至創紀錄的每蒲式耳8美元。"I thought that $6 corn was the end of the world," said Mr Pope. "I never could have realised that I would be thankful to be buying it at $7."
波普說："我曾以爲當玉米價格漲到6美元時，世界末日也就到了。我從未想到當我以7美元的價格買進玉米時，我會如此心懷感激。"Most analysts expect the livestock industry will respond to higher feed prices by culling pig herds.
多數分析師預計，養殖業將對飼料價格的上漲做出反應，削減豬羣數量。Mr Pope warned that US meat prices would rise by "significant double-digits", or more than 10 per cent a year.
波普警告說，美國肉類價格將上漲"可觀的兩位數"，即一年超過10%。
