年全球溫室氣體排放再創新高大綱

Global emissions of greenhouse gases jumped 2.3 percent in 2013 to record levels, scientists reported Sunday, in the latest indication that the world remains far off track in its efforts to control global warming.

科學家週日表示，2013年，全球溫室氣體排放量增加了2.3%，達到歷史新高。這個最新跡象表明，在控制全球變暖方面，國際社會的努力仍遠遠不夠。

The emissions growth last year was a bit slower than the average growth rate of 2.5 percent over the past decade, and much of the dip was caused by an economic slowdown in China, which is the world’s single largest source of emissions. It may take an additional year or two to know if China has turned a corner toward slower emissions growth, or if the runaway pace of recent years will resume.

排放量去年的增幅比過去十年中2.5%的平均增長率略低，而且排放量增幅之所以下降，很大程度上是由中國經濟增長放緩所引起的。中國是世界上最大的溫室氣體排放國。可能還需要再花一到兩年時間，才能弄清楚中國排放量的增長究竟有沒有放緩，還是最近數年那種極高的增速仍會持續。

In the United States, emissions rose 2.9 percent, after declining in recent years.

美國的排放量在經過了最近幾年的持續下降後，提高了2.9%。

The new numbers, reported by a tracking initiative called the Global Carbon Project and published in the journal Nature Geoscience, came on the eve of a United Nations summit meeting meant to harness fresh political ambition in tackling climate change. Scientists said the figures showed that vastly greater efforts would be needed to get long-term global warming within tolerable limits.

這些新數據是由一個叫做全球碳計劃(Global Carbon Project)的追蹤項目提交的，發表在了期刊《自然·地球科學》(Nature Geoscience)上。數據公佈之際，正是聯合國(United Nations)一次峯會召開前夕。此次峯會意在激發新的政治願望來解決氣候變化問題。科學家說，這些數據表明，如果要把長期的全球變暖問題控制在可以承受的範圍內，還需要做出極大的努力。

“You can no longer have some countries go first and others come in later, because there is no more time,” said Glen P. Peters, a scientist at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo, who helped compile the new numbers. “It needs to be all hands on deck now.”

“不能再採取某些國家先行動，其他國家隨後行動的策略，因爲時間不多了，”奧斯陸國際氣候與環境研究中心(Center for International Climate and Environmental Research)的科學家格倫·P·彼得斯(Glen P. Peters)說。他也參與了這些新數據的編制。“現在需要大家齊心協力。”

Yet expectations for the summit meeting on Tuesday are low, with no sign of any political breakthrough that would lead to more ambitious efforts. Scientists say emissions must peak within the next few years, and then begin to decline, if the world is to have any hope of keeping global warming to an upper limit that countries agreed on five years ago. So far, no plans are in place that would come close to achieving that.

不過，人們並沒有對週二的峯會寄予過高期望，因爲沒有任何跡象表明，各國能在政治上實現突破，進而採取更有力的舉措。科學家表示，要想如願把全球變暖控制在各國五年前一致同意的上限，那麼未來幾年裏，就必須扭轉排放量上升的勢頭。現有的所有方案，與實現這一目標都相距甚遠。

Emissions have been falling gradually in recent years in most of the developed countries, in part because of economic weakness but also because of strengthening climate policies. Emissions in the 28-nation European Union fell 1.8 percent in 2013, despite increases in coal consumption in a few countries, including Germany and Poland. Emissions decreased sharply in Britain, Italy and Spain.

近年來，大多數發達國家的排放量一直在逐步下降，這部分是因爲不景氣的經濟形勢，同時也是因爲日益加強的氣候政策。2013年，由28個國家組成的歐洲聯盟(European Union)的排放量下降了1.8%，雖然德國和波蘭等幾個國家的耗煤量出現增加。英國、意大利和西班牙的排放量顯著下降。

United States emissions had been declining because of increased burning of natural gas in power generation, which emits less carbon dioxide for each unit of energy than does coal. But the nation reported an increase in 2013 as coal regained some market share. If that trend continues, it could prove to be a challenge for the Obama administration as it seeks to institute tighter policies on greenhouse gases.

美國的排放量一直在降低，這是因爲發電過程中燃燒天然氣的比例增加了；與煤炭相比，燃氣發電每單位能量所產生的二氧化碳更少。但美國通報稱，2013年的排放量有所增加，因爲煤炭重新獲得了一些市場份額。如果這種趨勢持續下去，它可能會成爲奧巴馬政府的一個挑戰，因爲奧巴馬政府正試圖制定更嚴格的溫室氣體政策。

For years, slow emissions declines in the West have been swamped by rising emissions in the East, and the trend continued in 2013. China’s emissions grew 4.2 percent and India’s 5.1 percent. Both countries have been constructing coal-burning power plants at a breakneck pace.

多年來，西方排放量的緩慢減少，被東方排放量的日益增加所抵消。2013年，這種趨勢仍在繼續。中國的排放量增加了4.2%，印度增加了5.1%。中印兩國一直在以極快的速度修建火力發電廠。

China is spending heavily on renewable and nuclear energy as it tries to slow the growth of coal, but despite those efforts it has become by far the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Its emissions of 10 billion tons a year of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels and cement manufacturing are almost twice those of the United States, though emissions per person are still far higher in the United States.

爲了嘗試遏制煤炭消耗量的增長，中國正在可再生能源和核能領域投入巨資，但儘管付出了這些努力，中國迄今爲止依然是最大的溫室氣體排放國。中國每年因化石燃料燃燒和水泥生產排放100億噸二氧化碳，幾乎是美國的兩倍，但美國的人均排放量依然遠遠高於中國。

“China is really in a tough position,” Dr. Peters said. “Emissions have grown so much in the last 10 years or so that no matter how you look at China, it has an immense task.”

“中國的處境真的很艱難，”彼得斯博士說。“在過去大概十年時間裏，排放量增加如此之快，不管怎麼看待中國，它的任務都很艱鉅。”

In a separate report in early September, the World Meteorological Organization said the level of carbon dioxide in the air in 2013 was 42 percent above the level that prevailed before the Industrial Revolution. Other important greenhouse gases have gone up as well, with methane increasing 153 percent from the preindustrial level and nitrous oxide by 21 percent.

在9月初發布的另一份報告中，世界氣象組織(World Meteorological Organization)稱，2013年大氣中的二氧化碳水平，比工業革命之前的普遍水平高出42%。其他重要的溫室氣體含量也有所增加，與前工業化時代水平相比，甲烷增加了153%，一氧化二氮增加了21%。

The increase of these and other gases from human activity has caused the planet to warm by about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit since the preindustrial era, which is causing land ice to melt all over the world. The oceans are rising at what appears to be an accelerating pace, and heat waves and torrential rains are intensifying.

人類活動造成的這些氣體及其他氣體的增加，導致地球溫度與前工業化時代相比，上升了大約1.5華氏度（約合0.8攝氏度），造成全球陸冰融化。海平面上升的速度似乎正在加快，熱浪和暴雨天氣越來越多。

The nations of the world have agreed to try to limit the warming to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, which would require that emissions slow down and then largely stop in the next 30 years or so. If they continue on their present course through the century, scientists say, the earth could warm by as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit above the preindustrial level, which would likely be incompatible with human civilization in its current form.

世界各國同意將地球升溫控制在3.6華氏度以內，這需要在未來大約30年裏，抑制溫室氣體排放，之後基本停止排放。科學家表示，如果在本世紀，排放量繼續按照當前趨勢發展，地球溫度將比前工業化時代水平提高10華氏度，那將與人類文明當前的形式不再兼容。