貝萊德 中國政府可能大舉買入黃金
The Chinese state could be behind a surge in gold imports that will see China overtake India as the world’s largest consumer of the metal, according to one of the sector’s most influential investors.
黃金行業最具影響力的投資機構之一指出，中國政府或許是中國黃金進口量大增背後的主要因素。中國將超越印度成爲全球最大黃金消費國。Evy Hambro, chief investment officer of BlackRock’s Natural Resources Equity team, said the investment community had been surprised by the amount of gold flowing into China given its spot as the world’s biggest gold producer.
貝萊德(BlackRock)的自然資源股票(Natural Resources Equity)團隊首席投資官韓艾飛(Evy Hambro)表示，投資界對流入中國的黃金數量感到驚訝，因爲中國是全球第一大黃金生產國。“The total amount of gold being consumed in China is a gigantic quantum, and you have to wonder where that gold is going,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times. “Is it going on to wrists, ears and necks or is it going into state reserves?”
韓艾飛在接受英國《金融時報》採訪時表示：“中國的黃金消費總量是一個巨大的數值，你不能不猜想這麼多黃金究竟去了哪裏。是變成了人們手腕上、耳垂上以及脖子上佩戴的首飾，還是成爲了國家儲備？”
The People’s Bank of China has not provided an update on its gold reserves since 2009, when it reported a holding of 1,054 tonnes. But the suspicion among some analysts is that China’s central bank has purchased up to 300 tonnes of gold this year.
中國央行(People’s Bank of China)自2009年以來就未再公佈過有關其黃金儲備的最新數據，2009年該行持有1054噸黃金。但一些分析師懷疑，中國央行今年買入了多達300噸黃金。Gold has lost more than a quarter of its value this year, falling from $1,674 a troy ounce to $1,233, and is on course to record its first annual price fall in 13 years. Against a backdrop of persistently low inflation, an improving global economy, surging stock prices and the imminent end of US monetary stimulus, institutional investors have dumped gold.
今年以來黃金價格下跌超過四分之一，從每金衡盎司1674美元降至每金衡盎司1233美元，即將在近13年以來首次出現全年價格下跌。在通脹水平持續偏低、全球經濟形勢好轉、股票價格飆升以及美國貨幣刺激政策即將告終的背景下，機構投資者紛紛拋出黃金。Holdings of gold-backed exchange traded funds, one of the most popular methods of gold investment, have fallen by 824 tonnes to 1,939 tonnes in the year to date, according to Barclays. Demand from India has been muted because of government restrictions on gold imports. Indian consumption fell 32 per cent in the third quarter to 148 tonnes, the lowest since early 2009.
實物黃金支持的交易所交易基金(ETF)是投資黃金最流行的方法之一。巴克萊(Barclays)提供的數據顯示，這類基金的黃金持有量已從年初的1939噸降至目前的824噸。此外印度的黃金需求也受到抑制，因印度政府出臺了限制黃金進口的措施。印度今年第三季度的黃金消費量下降32%，至148噸，爲2009年初以來的最低水平。China does not report on its gold trade. Analysts rely on data from other countries, of which Hong Kong is by far the biggest supplier. Records show exports of gold from Hong Kong to China reached 955 tonnes by the end of October, up from 376 tonnes over the same period in 2012.
中國不提供其黃金貿易數據。分析師依靠其他管轄區的數據來推算中國的黃金進出口規模，其中香港是中國內地遙遙領先的最大黃金供應來源。記錄顯示，今年1月至10月，香港對中國內地的黃金出口量達到了955噸，遠高於2012年同期的376噸。Including local mine production and recycling of scrapped gold, Macquarie estimates total gold supply into China this year could reach 1,800 tonnes.
若計入中國國內礦企的黃金產量以及廢舊黃金回收利用，麥格理(Macquarie)估計中國今年的黃金供應總量可能達到1800噸。Outside of China, central banks have slowed their purchases of gold this year to 300 tonnes by the end of September.
在中國以外，各國央行今年放緩了黃金購買速度，截至9月底的黃金購入總量僅爲300噸。
