市場對奧朗德可能當選法國總統不安

The eurozone's sovereign debt crisis has helped topple half a dozen European leaders. It looks like French President Nicolas Sarkozy may be next. Polls show Sarkozy's Socialist rival, Francois Hollande, winning France's May 6 runoff election. But the prospect of an Hollande presidency is making markets - and analysts - nervous.

歐元區的主權債務危機已經導致多名歐洲領導人下臺，法國總統薩科齊看起來可能會是下一個 。民調顯示，薩科齊的社會黨對手奧朗德將贏得法國5月6日的總統選舉決選。不過奧朗德若當選總統令市場和分析人士不安。

It's been nearly 20 years since France had a Socialist president. That may change in just over a week. French polls all predict Socialist contender Francois Hollande will beat conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round of presidential elections on May 6.

法國總統爲社會黨人已經是將近20年前的事了。這可能將在一個星期左右有所改變。法國民調全都預測，在5月6日第二輪總統選舉中，社會黨競爭者奧朗德將擊敗保守派總統薩科齊。

In press conferences and interviews - like one on French radio Friday - Hollande outlines an economic strategy that includes more taxes for the rich and more spending to stimulate growth.

奧朗德陸續在一些記者會和採訪中提出了他大概的經濟策略，包括對富人增稅，同時增加開支刺激增長。

But Hollande says his first action would target the wider eurozone crisis that is now in its third year. Hollande says he will renegotiate a European Union fiscal treaty agreed to last year in order to promote economic growth.

不過奧朗德說，他的第一個行動會放在更廣的歐元區危機。歐元區危機現在已經進入第三年。奧朗德說，他將就去年通過的歐盟財政條約重新談判以刺激經濟增長。

The Socialist candidate is getting applause from his supporters - but not from markets, which briefly dipped after he won the first round of French elections last Sunday. Analysts like economics professor Tomasz Michalski, of the HEC business school in Paris, also see little reason to cheer.

這位社會黨候選人贏得支持者的肯定，但不受市場歡迎。就在他上星期天贏得第一輪選舉後市場短暫下跌。例如巴黎高等商學院經濟學家邁考斯基等分析人士，也不認爲市場有高興的理由。

"First of all, Hollande is going to increase very drastically taxes in France. In the short run the increase in taxes is going to lower the budget deficit," he said. "But in the long run it's not a good growth strategy…this is going to keep talent away. And France desperately needs new businesses, desperately needs entrepreneurs to keep the economy going."

邁考斯基說：“首先，奧朗德將大幅提高法國的稅。增稅在短期內能降低預算赤字，但長期來說並不是良好的增長策略，這會讓人才卻步。而法國迫切需要新的企業和新的創業者來維持經濟。”

Other experts agree. Britain's leading The Economist magazine is even more critical, calling Hollande's economic prescriptions "dangerous."

其他專家同意這種說法。英國知名雜誌《經濟學人》的批評更爲嚴厲，他們稱奧朗德的經濟對策“危險”。

Analyst Philip Whyte, of the London-based Center for European Reform, says he understands why markets are jittery about an Hollande presidency.

總部設在倫敦的歐洲改革中心的分析人士懷特說，他了解市場爲何對奧朗德擔任總統不安。

"But of course, once he's in office, he will very quickly be confronted by some of the constraints of office and some of those constraints might be imposed by the bond markets," he said."

懷特說：“但當然一旦他當選，他將很快遭遇一些限制，而這些限制有些可能來自債券市場。”

Hollande's growth prescription for Europe even got some support this week by European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi, who called on governments to invest in jobs and growth along with spending cuts.

奧朗德對歐洲經濟增長的對策這星期甚至獲得歐洲央行行長德拉吉的支持。德拉吉曾呼籲歐洲政府在削減開支外同時對工作和增長進行投資。Jobs and economic growth are top concerns of French voters like 54-year-old Fatna Chouaikh. Chouaikh believes Hollande can turn things around. She says Hollande is competent, hard-working and has what it takes to bring France out of its economic doldrums.

工作和經濟增長是法國選民最關心的問題。54歲的舒伊克相信，奧朗德可以使事情好轉。舒伊克說，奧朗德有能力、很認真，能讓法國走出經濟衰退。

Under current President Sarkozy, the economy shrank and unemployment soared to nearly 10 percent.

Most analysts agree that Sarkozy is not to blame for a global crisis that has sent many other economies tumbling as well. Whyte, of the Center for European Reform, credits Sarkozy for pushing through a few key reforms - like raising the retirement age - and for his initial leadership in the eurozone crisis.

多數分析人士都同意，不能將一場全球危機怪罪於薩科齊。這場全球危機已經讓其他許多經濟體崩潰。歐洲改革中心的懷特肯定薩科齊推動例如提高退休年齡等幾項關鍵改革，以及薩科齊在歐元區危機最初發生時的領導。

But Whyte faults the French president for letting German Chancellor Angela Merkel dictate eurozone policies today. And overall, he gives Sarkozy's performance a mediocre review.

不過懷特責怪薩科齊讓德國總理默克爾主導今天的歐元區政策。整體而言，他認爲薩科齊表現平庸。

"The problem with Sarkozy is that he really doesn't have an economic vision," Whyte said. "He's a man of action. But he has no real coherence to much of what he does. If you look at his performance over five years as president, there's not been a terribly clear economic path he's forged."

懷特說：“薩科齊的問題在於，他完全沒有經濟想法。他是起而行的人。但他做事完全沒有一致性。如果你看他過去五年擔任總統的表現，他根本沒走出一條清楚的經濟道路。”

Professor Michalski offers similar criticism.

邁考斯基教授也提出了類似的批評。

"The measures that Sarkozy is proposing in this campaign do not form a coherent long-term program," he said. "Rather, they're small measures addressed to particular issues. So I'm very skeptical."

邁考斯基說：“薩科齊這次競選的一些舉措並沒有形成長期而一致的項目。他們都是爲解決特定問題的小舉措。所以我非常懷疑。”

Ultimately, smaller parties may shape the economic policies of either an Hollande or a Sarkozy presidency. Hollande is counting on far-left and centrist voters to win the May 6 runoff. Sarkozy is courting those who voted for the far-right in the first round - and who are skeptical of the European Union and of taking economic orders from Brussels.

最終，較小的黨派可能影響無論是奧朗德或薩科齊擔任總統的經濟政策。奧朗德將依賴極左派和中間選民贏得5月6日的決選。薩科齊則依賴在第一輪投票中投給極右派的選民，和那些對歐盟以及對由布魯塞爾下達經濟命令有疑慮的選民。