到朝鮮做生意?“特金會”讓大膽的投資者看到商機

HONG KONG — North Korea is one of the world’s most isolated countries. It is ruled by an unpredictable dictator with his finger on the nuclear button. So, who’s ready to do business there?

香港——朝鮮是世界上最孤立的國家之一。統治它的人是一個難以捉摸、手指放在覈按鈕上的獨裁者。所以問題就來了，有人準備在那裏做生意嗎？

Well, basically nobody.

可以說，基本沒有。

But leading up to President Trump’s meeting in Singapore with Kim Jong-un, which concluded on Tuesday with a deal to keep talking, some intrepid businesses and investors have begun considering the possibilities. What happens if North Korea opens its economy, even just a little, giving global businesses a shot as East Asia’s last untapped growth market?

但是，在特朗普總統與金正恩本週二在新加坡會晤、達成了繼續談下去的協議之前，一些勇敢的企業和投資者已經開始在考慮這種可能性了。如果朝鮮開放經濟，哪怕只是一點點，讓全球企業有機會在東亞最後一個蘊藏着增長潛力的市場試手的話，會發生什麼呢？

Mr. Trump on Tuesday dangled visions of what North Korea could win if it abandoned its nuclear weapons and changed its ways.

特朗普週二提了，如果朝鮮放棄核武器、改弦更張，它會得到什麼的願景。

“As an example, they have great beaches,” he said at his news conference after the summit meeting. “You see that whenever they’re exploding their cannons into the ocean. I said, ‘Boy, look at that view. Wouldn’t that make a great condo?’”

“舉個例子，他們有很棒的海灘，”他在峯會後的新聞發佈會上說。“他們每次向大海開炮時，你們都能看見。我說，‘哇，那景色真不錯。是個蓋很棒的可出售公寓大樓的地方，不是嗎？’”

Let’s back up. The chances are slim — very, very slim — to none that North Korea would open up like that in the foreseeable future. Still, some businesses are setting up internal task forces to start drawing up plans, according to lawyers and advisers who specialize in North Korea. Shares of companies that could profit are starting to rise, in what one analyst called the “Rocket Man rally.”

先退一步說。在可預見的未來，朝鮮會開放到那種程度的可能性微乎其微。儘管如此，一些企業正在內部組建特別工作組，開始起草計劃，據律師和專門研究朝鮮問題的顧問說。有望從朝鮮獲利的公司的股價在開始上漲，一位分析人士稱這種上漲爲“火箭人反彈”。

A few big companies have tentatively reached out to contacts in North Korea, said Wook Yoo, a partner at Bae, Kim & Lee, a South Korean law firm. Others have inquired about where to begin. “We have received calls from several companies which are quite interested in preparing future business with North Korea,” Mr. Yoo said.

幾家大公司已與朝鮮的聯繫人進行試探性聯繫，韓國太平洋律師事務所的合夥人柳旭(Wook Yoo)說。其他公司也已在詢問從何處下手。“我們接到了幾家公司的電話，它們非常有興趣爲將來與朝鮮做生意做準備，”柳旭說。

It is not clear how many companies are looking at the idea, or which ones. Company officials are loath to discuss their plans publicly. Initial feelers into North Korea risk violating United States and international sanctions, which are not likely to ease anytime soon. Those restrictions have become so tight that investors have stopped early efforts to crack the market.

目前尚不清楚有多少公司在考慮這個想法，也不清楚正在這樣考慮的公司的名字。公司官員不願公開討論他們的計劃。進入朝鮮的初步試探有違反美國和國際制裁的風險，這些制裁不太可能很快得到緩解。制裁措施已經變得如此之嚴格，以至於投資者已停止了進入朝鮮市場的早期努力。

Even if progress were made, the world would still be dealing with a leader who diverted millions of dollars from his country’s economy to build powerful weapons, leading to food shortages for his people.

即使談判取得進展，世界需要與之打交道的仍是這樣一位領導人：他從本國經濟中抽出數百萬美元來製造強大的武器，讓本國人民吃不飽飯。

Nevertheless, some in the business world find the idea intriguing. The North has a relatively young population and an underground entrepreneurial bent. It has a large amount of resources like rare earths and iron ore. And South Korea has offered the North a modernization plan that includes building railways and power plants.

儘管如此，一些商界人士還是覺得與朝鮮做生意的想法很迷人。朝鮮的人口相對年輕，有地下創業傾向。朝鮮有鐵礦石和稀土等豐富的自然資源。韓國已向朝鮮提供了一個包括修建鐵路和發電廠在內的現代化計劃。

“This is where the money is to be made,” said Justin Hastings, an associate professor at the University of Sydney who wrote a book about North Korea’s economy. That is, “if you can figure out how not to get expropriated,” Mr. Hastings added, citing Pyongyang’s history of seizing assets.

“這就是能賺錢的地方，”賈斯汀·哈斯廷斯(Justin Hastings)說，他是悉尼大學(University of Sydney)的副教授，寫過一本有關朝鮮經濟的書。“如果你能想出不被沒收的辦法的話，”哈斯廷斯補充說，他指的是了平壤政府扣押資產的歷史。

A sudden change in the North’s business climate also would not be unprecedented: Earlier this decade, once-closed Myanmar rapidly opened for business, attracting big companies from around the world.

朝鮮的商業環境突然改變也不是世界上沒發生過的：在2010年代初，一度封閉的緬甸很快就開放了商業，吸引了來自世界各地的大公司。

“They want American investment coming to North Korea,” Chung-in Moon, a senior South Korean presidential adviser, said in April on CNN, adding that, “Yes, they want Trump Tower. They want McDonald’s and all these kinds of things.”

“他們希望美國來朝鮮投資，”韓國總統顧問文正仁(Chung-in Moon)今年4月在美國有線電視新聞網(CNN)上說，他還說，“是的，他們想要特朗普大廈(Trump Tower)。他們想要麥當勞和所有的這類東西。”

Nearly three-quarters of South Korean businesses would be willing to make an investment in North Korea once sanctions were lifted, according to a survey of 167 companies published last week by the Maeil Business Newspaper in South Korea.

韓國商業報紙《每日經濟新聞》上週對167家公司進行的調查顯示，一旦解除制裁，近四分之三的韓國企業會願意在朝鮮投資。

When it comes to business, North Korea is not for the faint of heart. Its economy is half the size of South Korea’s sixth-biggest city. For businesses, electricity and water would have to be secured. Mr. Yoo, the lawyer, said that North Korea lacked a basic way for foreign companies to resolve business disputes.

提到經商，朝鮮可不是膽怯者去的地方。朝鮮的經濟規模只有韓國第六大城市的一半。對企業來說，需要先讓電力和水的供應得到保障。律師柳旭說，朝鮮缺乏讓外國公司解決商業糾紛的基本途徑。

Of the few Chinese, Japanese and South Korean companies that have ventured into the North, many have seen their assets confiscated.

在少數敢去朝鮮做生意的中國、日本和韓國公司中，好幾家都有資產被沒收的經歷。

Xiyang Group, a Chinese mining company, finished building its first mine there in 2012 only to see North Korea kick its employees out of the country and take over. Xiyang said it lost about $45 million from the project.

2012年，中國礦業公司西陽集團在朝鮮完成了其第一個礦山建設項目，結果朝鮮卻將公司員工趕走，接管了該公司的業務。西陽集團說，在那個項目上損失了約4500萬美元。

The Kaesong Industrial Park, a manufacturing hub built by Hyundai on the North Korean side of the border more than a decade ago, was shut down twice before the North froze the South Korean assets two years ago. The 123 firms operating in the complex later said they lost a combined $1.3 billion.

開城工業園是現代汽車(Hyundai)十多年前在朝韓邊境朝鮮一邊建立的一個製造中心，曾兩度關閉，兩年前，朝鮮凍結了那裏的韓國資產。在工業園有業務的123家公司後來表示，它們總共損失了13億美元。

In addition, the North’s work force lacks basic skills, say those who have visited the country.

再就是，據去過朝鮮的人說，那裏的勞動力缺乏基本技能。

“The biggest gap that we are trying to plug — and it’s really, really big — is how isolated North Korea has been,” said Geoffrey See, the founder of Choson Exchange, a nonprofit that organizes workshops with North Korean students, academics and scientists. “If you look at other countries that open up, they already have diaspora to bring back know-how.”

“我們正在試圖彌補的最大空缺——那是一個非常、非常大的空缺——是朝鮮長期以來被孤立的程度，”施國興(Geoffrey See)說，他是爲朝鮮的學生、學者和科學家組織研討會的非營利機構朝鮮交流中心(Choson Exchange)的創始人。“如果你看一下其他敞開國門的國家，你會發現，他們已經有了能把技術帶回來的在海外居住的羣體。”

Simply getting an answer can be hard, Mr. See said. He recalled sending an email a decade ago to an official in Pyongyang about opening up Choson Exchange. It took two months to get a response.

施國興說，僅僅是得到一個答覆都很難。他回憶起十年前給平壤的一位官員發關於成立朝鮮交流中心的電子郵件的事情。等了兩個月纔得到答覆。

Then there is North Korea’s domestic companies and their deep connections with the government.

還有就是朝鮮國內公司的問題，以及它們與政府的深厚關係。

“There are vested interests in North Korea,” said Christopher Green, a researcher at Universiteit Leiden in the Netherlands who has interviewed North Korean defectors. “The economy is underdeveloped and there are people who are already making money there. The last thing a North Korea firm would like is for a South Korean firm like Samsung to come in.”

“朝鮮有既得利益羣體，”荷蘭萊頓大學(Universiteit Leiden)的研究員克里斯托弗·格林(Christopher Green)說。“雖然經濟不發達，但有些人已經在那裏賺錢了。朝鮮企業最不願意看到的就是讓像三星這樣的韓國公司進來。”

Nevertheless, some see promise.

儘管如此，一些人還是看到了希望。

Shares in South Korean companies like Posco, the South Korean steel maker; SK Innovation, an oil refining company; and Korea Aerospace — firms that could profit from an economically open North Korea — have rallied over the past week. Ordinary mom-and-pop investors hopeful of a deal are contributing, said Paul Choi, head of Korea research at CLSA, the brokerage firm.

一些韓國公司的股票在過去一週裏已經有所回升，包括鋼鐵企業浦項制鐵(Posco)、煉油企業SK Innovation，以及韓國航空航天公司等，它們可能會從經濟上開放的朝鮮獲利。對達成協議滿懷希望的普通投資者對股票的回升有所貢獻，經紀公司里昂證券(CLSA)的韓國研究主管保羅·崔(Paul Choi)說。

In Europe, one entrepreneur who has done business in North Korea since the late 1990s was watching the summit meeting closely. “I’m cautiously optimistic,” said Paul Tjia, the founder of GPI Consultancy, which advises companies on offshoring their information technology operations.

在歐洲，一位自上世紀90年代末以來就開始在朝鮮做生意的企業家正在密切關注着此次峯會。“我持謹慎樂觀態度，”荷蘭的GPI諮詢公司(GPI Consultancy)的創始人保羅·特賈(Paul Tjia)說。

“We are receiving more questions about North Korea from European companies,” Mr. Tjia said. He said he was planning an “information and communications technology mission” to North Korea in September in order to introduce European companies to the possibilities for outsourcing their basic technology and software development needs to North Korea.

“我們正在從歐洲公司那裏接到更多的有關朝鮮的問題，”特賈說。他表示，他已在計劃今年9月去朝鮮進行“信息和通信技術考察”，目的是給歐洲公司介紹將它們的基礎技術和軟件開發需求外包給朝鮮的可能性。

Hyundai has future plans for the Kaesong complex that include a zone for technology that could accommodate 2,000 companies and 600,000 employees, according to its website. It would even have a golf course.

據公司網站顯示，現代汽車公司對開城工業園的未來計劃包括了一個可容納2000家公司和60萬名員工的技術園區。園區裏甚至還會有一個高爾夫球場。

And despite North Koreans’ lack of basic skills, the country has a class of would-be entrepreneurs who are eager to learn, said Mr. See of the Choson Exchange program, and others.

朝鮮交流中心的施國興說，雖然朝鮮人缺乏基本的技能，但該國有一羣渴望學習的潛在企業家。

Ian Collins, a consultant who traveled to the western North Korean city of Pyongsong in November through Choson Exchange, said one of the 80 participants in his workshop told him that some women had started a business renting out their bedrooms on an hourly basis to amorous young couples.

去年11月在朝鮮交流中心的安排下訪問了朝鮮西部城市平城的諮詢師伊恩·柯林斯說，參加他的研討會的80人中有人告訴他，一些女性已經在用自己的臥室創業，把臥室按小時收費租給相戀的年輕人。

While there, Mr. Collins visited an “app store” — a place that sells smartphone apps, like people have in the rest of the world. But this one was a physical, bricks-and-mortar store in which employees loaded people’s phones with apps.

柯林斯在那裏還參觀了一個“應用商店”，那是一個銷售智能手機應用的地方，就像世界上其他地方的人買的軟件一樣。但這是一家實實在在的實體店，員工們在店裏給人們的手機裝上應用軟件。

“They have had to come up with side businesses because the state can’t look after them anymore and the gray economy is huge there,” he said.

“他們不得不出來幹些副業，因爲政府不再管他們了，那裏的灰色經濟規模巨大，”他說。

And, like budding entrepreneurs in any country, many are dreaming up business plans, Mr. Collins said.

就像任何國家嶄露頭角的企業家那樣，許多人都在構思商業計劃，柯林斯說。

“One of the questions I got asked was, ‘What innovation is going to provide the most amount of profit?’”

“人們問我的問題之一是，‘什麼創新能帶來最大的利潤？’”