集裝箱航運業:波動性,不確定性和擾亂

There must be something badly wrong with a business when customers tell suppliers they should put their prices up.

當客戶告訴供應商他們應該提價時，行業一定出了嚴重的問題。

Yet this has happened repeatedly in the world’s shipping industry as it struggles to cope with an imbalance between supply and demand that is creating uncertainty and disruption both for shipping lines and for the companies that depend on them to carry their goods across the world.

但是，這一幕已多次出現在艱難應對供需不平衡的全球航運業。這種失衡正在給航運公司以及依靠它們將貨物運往世界各地的企業帶來不確定性和擾亂。

“People are asking carriers for price increases just to make sure their cargos are actually shipped,” says Patrik Berglund, co-founder and chief executive of Xeneta, a Norwegian company that tracks container shipping rates.

追蹤集裝箱運費的挪威公司Xeneta的聯合創始人和首席執行官帕特里克?貝里隆德(Patrik Berglund)說：“人們正促請航運公司提高價格，以確保自己的貨物真的被裝運。”

Such appeals have become routine. At last week’s Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference organised by the Journal of Commerce, an industry publication, in Long Beach, California, Rob Kusciel, head of transport and logistics at Honeywell, told delegates that “carriers are pricing below cost and it is not sustainable”.

此類請求已變成常態。最近，在由行業出版物《Journal of Commerce》在加州長灘主辦的泛太平洋海運會議(Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference)上，霍尼韋爾(Honeywell)運輸與物流主管Rob Kusciel對與會代表們表示：“承運人正把價格定在成本以下，這是不可持續的”。

Peter Levesque, chief executive of Modern Terminals, a container port operator based in Hong Kong, said the current pricing model was “broken” and that shipping companies were operating at rates that were unprofitable “to the level of strangulation”, the JOC reported.

據《Journal of Commerce》報道，總部位於香港的集裝箱碼頭運營商——現代貨櫃碼頭公司(Modern Terminals)首席運營官彼得?萊韋斯克(Peter Levesque)表示，當前的定價模式“亂了套”，航運公司賴以維持經營的運費已經無利可圖“至窒息的水平”。

This is despite the fact that the average cost of shipping a 40ft container from East Asia to the east coast of South America has risen from $500 to $3,285 over the past 12 months, according to Xeneta.

這還不算以下事實：根據Xeneta的數據，過去12個月裏，將一個40英尺集裝箱從東亞運至南美洲東海岸的平均成本已從500美元漲至3285美元。

Indeed, 2017 has begun with a cascade of what should be good news for the shipping industry. Growth in emerging markets is surging ahead, rising to 6.4 per cent in January according to the Institute of International Finance, an industry association. Activity in the US and other developed markets is picking up, leading to a reported increase in capital expenditure globally with the prospect of rising demand for EM exports. An index of export managers’ activity compiled by China’s customs service rose to 41.5 in January from 32 a year earlier.

的確，2017年伊始出現了一連串應該利好航運業的事態。根據行業組織國際金融協會(IIF)的數據，新興市場的經濟迅猛增長，1月加速至6.4%。美國及其他發達市場的經濟活動正出現起色，導致全球資本支出增加，這意味着對新興市場出口的需求可能越來越大。中國海關編制的出口經理人指數從一年前的32升至今年1月的41.5。

Yet the rise in container rates over the past year hides extreme price volatility. As the first chart shows, the cost of shipping a 40ft container from, say, Shanghai to Santos on a short-term contract has swung wildly over the past year, according to Xeneta’s data. The chart shows only the average cost: some shippers report paying as little as $50 or even $25 a container.

但過去一年集裝箱運費的上漲掩蓋了極端的價格波動。如圖表一（見下）所示，根據Xeneta的數據，按短期合同將一個40英尺集裝箱（比方說）從上海運至巴西桑托斯的成本在過去一年經歷了劇烈波動。該圖只顯示了平均成本：一些託運人稱，他們爲一個集裝箱支付的運費曾經低至50甚至25美元。

The danger for shippers of rates this low is that, sometimes, it hardly seems worth the carriers’ while to pick the containers up — so, sometimes, they do not.

如此低的運費給託運人帶來的風險在於，有時候，這似乎都不值得承運人費事發運集裝箱——有時候，他們真的不管這些集裝箱。

“Imagine a vessel approaching Shanghai,” says Mr Berglund at Xeneta. “They look at the boxes on the dock and say that one yields so much, and that one yields a third of the amount. The low-yielding box will be the last one to be picked up.”

“設想一艘進入上海港的船舶，”Xeneta的貝里隆德說，“他們看着碼頭上的集裝箱，然後說這個利潤這麼多，而那個利潤只有前者的三分之一。低利潤的集裝箱只能最後被吊上船。”

Exacerbating this situation is an industry practice of using unenforceable contracts: both shipper and carrier want flexibility on volumes, with the corollary that neither can hold the other to their word.

加劇這種狀況的是一種採用不可強制執行的合同的行業慣例：託運人和承運人都希望在貨運量上保持靈活性，其必然結果是雙方都無法讓對方信守承諾。

In normal times, things tend to balance out. But these are not normal times. The second chart shows the value of global trade since 1948, according to Unctad, the United Nations trade body. As globalisation advanced after the second world war, trade expanded on an almost unbroken trend.

在正常時期，往往可以逐漸實現平衡。但現在並非正常時期。圖表二（見下）顯示根據聯合國貿發會議(Unctad)的數據編制的1948年以來全球貿易總價值。隨着二戰後全球化不斷推進，貿易以一種幾乎從未間斷的趨勢不斷擴大。

By the first decade of this century, the pace of growth was faster than ever. To cope with rising volumes, shipping companies commissioned more and more ships, in ever bigger sizes. With economies of scale, shipping rates fell.

本世紀頭10年，全球貿易增速比之前任何一個時期都快。爲了處理不斷增多的貨運量，航運公司訂造了越來越多船舶，而船的噸位也越來越大。規模經濟效應導致運費下降。

But then came the global financial crisis, followed by years of uncertainty and what many see as the current unravelling of globalisation. With the Trump administration in the US making promises of protectionism, the future of shipping has never been less certain.

但接着爆發了全球金融危機，隨後是多年的不確定性以及許多人眼中正在上演的全球化逆轉。鑑於美國特朗普政府作出種種保護主義承諾，航運業的未來從未像現在這樣難以捉摸。

The disruption of globalisation came at a time when ships were being built like never before. Yet when trade recovered after the global crisis, shipping lines again put in big orders. The global shipping industry now suffers from overcapacity on an unprecedented scale.

全球化遇挫之際，造船活動達到前所未有的規模。然而，當全球金融危機過後貿易復甦時，航運公司又一次發出大筆訂單。如今，全球航運業遭遇規模空前的運力過剩。

VesselsValue, a company that monitors the value of the world’s ships, says 2,028 container vessels are currently valued at or below their value as scrap metal, with the other 3,242 vessels in the world valued at more than scrap. In volume terms, 7.3m teus (20ft-equivalent units), or nearly a third of the global fleet, is at or below scrap, with 16.2m teus above.

監測全球船舶價值的VesselsValue公司稱，當前，2028艘集裝箱船的估值處在或低於其作爲廢鋼的價值，全球另有3242艘集裝箱船的估值高於廢鋼。按運力計算，730萬個20英尺標準集裝箱（相當於全球集裝箱船隊運力的近三分之一）的運力處於或低於廢鋼價，1620萬個標準集裝箱的運力的估值高於廢鋼。

The situation may be about to get worse. Alphaliner, a company that monitors ship construction, says total shipping capacity will grow by an average of 4 per cent a year in 2017 and 2018, on top of existing idle capacity of 7 per cent. The biggest problem is in mega-ships: more than 150 new ships with the ability to carry more than 10,000 teus at a time will be delivered by the end of next year.

這種狀況可能將變得更糟。監測船舶建造的Alphaliner公司表示，全球總運力將在2017年和2018年平均每年增長4%，這還不算現有的7%的閒置運力。最大的問題在於巨型貨輪：逾150艘一次可承運超過1萬個標準集裝箱的新船將在明年底之前交付。

What this means for the world’s shipyards is a separate story. Big shipping lines, where they can, have been cancelling orders. In a bid to keep container rates up, they have also cancelled sailings. Mr Berglund says that during this year’s Chinese new year celebrations, when volumes fall away, shipping lines from China to northern Europe pulled out as much as 43 per cent of their capacity.

這對全球造船廠而言意味着什麼則是另一回事。在可能的情況下，大型航運公司正在取消訂單。爲了保持集裝箱運費處於合理區間，它們還取消了航行班次。貝里隆德說，在今年的中國農曆新年期間，當貨物量銳減時，經營從中國到北歐班輪的航運公司砍掉了多達43%的運力。

The third chart compares short-term rates with long-term rates on the China to northern Europe route. The jumps in the short-term rates portray general rate increases, or GRIs, announced publicly by one shipping company after another, usually around the same time.

圖表三比較了中國至北歐航線的短期運費和長期運費。短期價格躍升表述爲綜合費率上漲附加費(GRI)，通常在差不多同一時間由航運公司一個接一個公開宣佈。

As the first and third charts show, GRIs tend to stick only for a while. Long-term rates, seen in the third chart, are more stable but tend to trail short-term rates with a lag. Recently, shipping lines have managed to impose higher long-term rates. The short line at the end of the third chart shows only those contracts agreed in the past three months.

如圖表一和圖表三所示，GRI往往只持續一小段時間。長期運費（如圖表三所示，見下）更加穩定，但傾向於滯後於短期運費。近期，航運公司成功地實行了更高的長期運費。圖表三末尾的短線只顯示了過去3個月簽訂的合同。

Some shippers will be relieved to be paying real-world rates again. It means they can be more certain that their goods will be delivered.

再次支付切合實際的運費將讓一些託運人如釋重負。這意味着他們可以更加確定自己的貨物將被送達目的地。

“For many shippers rates fell so low as to be insignificant,” says Mr Berglund. “But then they started to suffer disruption to their supply chains. If your cargo is stuck at sea — and for a small company that can mean your entire stock — that’s a crisis. All of a sudden ocean freight became incredibly important, and that’s when prices picked up again.”

“對於許多託運人而言，運費已降至如此之低的水平，使其（對於總成本）無足輕重，”貝里隆德說，“但接着他們開始遭遇供應鏈擾亂。如果你的貨物被困海上（對一家小公司這可能意味着全部庫存）那就是一場危機。突然間，遠洋貨運變得極其重要，這就是價格再次上揚的時候。”

The biggest single disruptive event of recent times was last year’s collapse of Hanjin, a South Korean shipping line many of whose ships were left adrift for months. It can be seen in the jump in the China-northern Europe rate last October, which has stuck for longer than most.

近期最大的一起破壞性事件是去年韓國的韓進海運(Hanjin Shipping)破產，該公司的很多船舶滯留於海上數月之久。這體現於去年10月中國至北歐的運費猛漲，這一上漲的持續時間也超過多數航線。

But the Hanjin incident has not yet played out. Some of its capacity is still returning to the market. Short-term rates have begun falling again. Mr Berglund says the latest round of negotiations for the Asia-northern Europe corridor, which usually takes place at the end of each calendar year, has been abandoned by both sides because of the level of uncertainty.

但韓進事件的影響還沒有結束。該公司的一些運力正在重返市場。短期運費已再次開始下降。貝里隆德介紹說，鑑於巨大的不確定性，圍繞亞洲-北歐航線的最新一輪談判（通常在每年年底舉行）已被雙方放棄。

“From the point of view of the shipping lines, which have been bleeding billions over the past few years, that makes sense,” he says. “From the shippers’ point of view, it’s a huge risk but I can understand it given the uncertainty.”

“從過去幾年遭受鉅額虧損的航運公司的視角看，這有道理，”他說，“從託運人的角度看，這是一個巨大的風險，但考慮到不確定性，我可以理解。”

Both sides will be watching the fall in short-term rates shown in the third chart. If the past is any guide, it suggests long-term rates will fall again. Volatility, uncertainty and disruption may be back before long.

雙方都將關注圖表三所示的短期運費下降。如果歷史可以爲鑑，它似乎表明長期運費將再次下降。波動性、不確定性和擾亂可能不久就會回來。