中國避免匯率戰值得讚賞

Tensions between the US and China are so elevated — and the prospect of a trade war between superpowers so grim — that every change in the economic backdrop is significant. So signs that Beijing is successfully containing capital outflows, and preventing its currency from depreciating against the US dollar, are crucial. After all, some of President Donald Trump’s anti-China rhetoric often takes the form of accusations of currency manipulation.

美中關係的緊張程度如此之高——且兩個超級大國之間爆發貿易戰的前景如此嚴峻——以至於經濟大背景中的每一個變化都意義重大。因此，北京方面正成功遏制資本外流並阻止人民幣對美元貶值的跡象至關重要。畢竟，美國總統唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的一些抨擊中國的言論經常以指責中國操縱匯率爲形式。

Confounding widespread expectations of a sharp depreciation, the renminbi, China’s currency, has in fact appreciated by 1.2 per cent against the US dollar during the first six weeks of this year, reversing some of the 7 per decline in 2016.

雖然外界普遍預期人民幣將出現大幅貶值，但實際上，在今年頭6週期間，人民幣對美元升值了1.2%，部分逆轉了2016年7%的跌幅。

This relative stability has been engineered in part by a crackdown on capital outflows, which resulted in a slight decline in overseas investments by Chinese companies in January after a year of surging cross-border acquisitions. A gentle uplift of interest rates in domestic capital markets has enticed more Chinese money to stay at home rather than seek higher returns abroad.

這種相對穩定部分應歸功於中國對資本外流的打擊，這方面的行動使得1月份中國企業的海外投資相比此前一年不斷高漲的收境併購出現略微下降。國內資本市場的小幅利率上揚吸引了更多中國資金留在國內，而不是到海外尋求更高回報。

Taken together, such measures may suggest that Beijing has been doing what it can to ease US-China trade friction before the expected confirmation of Wilbur Ross, Mr Trump’s choice for commerce secretary. The impression that Beijing may be out to mollify the US administration was underlined by the news this week that China bought $9.1bn in US Treasury debt in December, breaking a six-month streak during which it was a consistent seller.

綜合來看，這些措施或許表明，在特朗普的商務部長人選威爾伯?羅斯(Wilbur Ross)獲得確認前，中國政府一直在儘可能地緩解美中貿易摩擦。本週的報道稱，中國去年12月購買了91億美元的美國國債，中斷了連續6個月對美國國債的拋售。這進一步突顯了北京方面可能在盡力安撫特朗普政府的印象。

Of course, these subtle moves may do little to assuage the thumping sentiments expressed during Mr Trump’s campaign, when he accused China of the “greatest theft in the history of the world”, promised to brand Beijing a “currency manipulator,” and said he would slap a 45 per cent tariff on all Chinese exports to the US. In response China has mostly bided its time, though sections of its state-run tabloid media have threatened “tit-for-tat” revenge which would include boycotting US sales of Boeing aircraft, iPhones, soybeans, maize and other products.

當然，這些細微的舉動可能無助於平息特朗普在競選期間表達的義憤情緒，那時他指責中國進行了“世界歷史上最大的盜竊”，承諾要給北京貼上“匯率操縱者”的標籤，並表示將對所有中國輸美商品徵收45%的關稅。中國的迴應基本上是按兵不動——儘管官方小報曾威脅要進行“以牙還牙”的報復，包括抵制美國波音(Boeing)飛機、iPhone、大豆、玉米及其他產品的銷售。

Nevertheless, the US administration’s recent form on political issues shows that it is not incapable of retracing rhetorical moves. Mr Trump has backed away from his inflammatory suggestion that he would question the “One China” policy that has underpinned America’s approach to Taiwan since the normalisation of relations between the People’s Republic of China and the US in the 1970s.

然而，特朗普政府近期在政治問題上的所作所爲表明，它並非不能收回說出的話。特朗普已不再堅持其質疑“一箇中國”政策的煽動性暗示。自上世紀70年代中華人民共和國與美國關係正常化以來，“一箇中國”政策一直是美國對臺政策的基礎。

In recent weeks the White House also seems to have tacked back to a more moderate position on China’s provocative island-building in the South China Sea. Early comments by Rex Tillerson, the new US secretary of state, had implied that the US might be contemplating a naval blockade of these artificial islands. This position has been diluted, easing concerns over a potential military clash.

最近幾周白宮對中國在南中國海挑釁性造島工程的態度似乎又回到了更溫和的立場。新任國務卿雷克斯?蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)先前的言論暗示，美國可能在考慮對這些人工島進行海上封鎖。如今這一立場有所淡化，緩解了人們對潛在軍事衝突的擔憂。

Against this background, China’s decision to avoid antagonising Washington on trade issues seems sensible. With 18 per cent of Chinese exports going to the US and some 20m Chinese employed in making the things that Americans buy, Beijing would be foolish to ignore the blow its economy would sustain in a trans-Pacific trade war. Keeping the renminbi stable may largely be in China’s own interests as well. The government is struggling to curb capital outflows that last year ran to several hundreds of billions of US dollars. It appears to have decided that as long as its citizens believe the renminbi will stay strong, they are less likely to spirit their money overseas. For now, cool heads have prevailed and that is to be welcomed.

在這一背景下，中國決定避免在貿易問題上與美國對抗似乎是明智的。中國出口商品18%銷往美國，約有2000萬中國人的工作是生產美國人購買的商品，北京如果無視其經濟在一場跨太平洋貿易戰中可能遭受的打擊，將是愚蠢的。維持人民幣穩定或許在很大程度上也符合中國自己的利益。中國政府正竭力遏制資本外流，去年流出達到幾千億美元。中國政府似乎已決定，只要國民相信人民幣將保持堅挺，他們就不太可能把自己的資金轉往海外。就目前而言，冷靜的頭腦佔了上風，這是可喜的。