中國過高債務令投資者卻步
For most of the past 15 years, China was the darling of emerging market investors as its demand for commodities lifted the fortunes of countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia.
過去15年大部分時間裏，中國是新興市場投資者的寵兒，它對大宗商品的需求使拉美、非洲和亞洲國家的經濟出現起色。
But now, as China nurses a hangover from its debt-fuelled boom, fund managers are increasingly shunning it.
然而如今，在中國艱難應對一輪債務助長的繁榮引發的宿醉之際，基金經理人紛紛避開中國。
My way of describing our portfolio is to call it the post-China-world portfolio, says Ruchir Sharma, chief global strategist and head of the emerging markets equity team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
摩根士丹利投資管理公司(Morgan Stanley Investment Management)首席全球策略師、新興市場股票團隊主管魯奇爾•夏爾馬(Ruchir Sharma)表示：對於我們的投資組合，我將其稱爲‘中國後世界’組合。
The whole positioning is that China’s dream run is over and you have to look for investments that are as uncorrelated to China as possible.
總體倉位原則是中國夢行情結束了，必須尋找儘可能與中國無關的投資項目。
He identifies South Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and parts of eastern Europe as relatively attractive emerging markets.
他指出，南亞、菲律賓、越南、印尼及東歐部分地區是相對有吸引力的新興市場。
His scepticism towards the world’s second-largest economy is echoed by other fund managers, who see China’s corporate debt, the flagging dynamism of its private companies, and little progress in reform of state-owned enterprises as weighing on the country’s prospects for years to come.
他對全球第二大經濟體的懷疑態度，得到其他基金經理人的呼應，他們認爲中國的企業債問題、民營公司活力下降、以及國企改革幾乎毫無進展，都在拖累中國今後多年的前景。
Our portfolios are very underweight on China, says Gerardo Zamorano, manager of emerging market strategies at Brandes Investment Partners, which oversees $26bn in investments.
掌管着260億美元投資的布蘭德斯投資合夥公司(Brandes Investment Partner)的新興市場戰略經理赫拉爾多•薩莫拉諾(Gerardo Zamorano)表示：我們在投資組合中配置給中國的權重很低。
The gearing of the corporate sector in China has increased dramatically and a large part of new corporate loans are going towards paying off existing debts.
中國企業部門的槓桿率已戲劇性提升，新增企業貸款的很大一部分正被用於償還現有債務。
Shadow finance is also a concern.
而影子金融也是個令人擔心的問題。
Such disenchantment is reflected in a widening divergence between funds allocated to China-related assets and those invested in emerging markets as a whole, according to statistics compiled by EPFR.
根據EPFR編制的統計數據，專注於中國的基金和投資於新興市場總體的基金的資金流動方向相反，這也反映了上述失望情緒。
The research company’s numbers show that while fund managers have poured capital into emerging markets as a whole since early July, they have withdrawn it from specialist China funds since mid-June.
這家研究公司的數據顯示，儘管自7月初以來基金經理人紛紛將大筆資金注入新興市場總體，但自6月中旬以來他們一直在從專注於中國的基金撤資。
The main deterrent is China’s corporate debt.
這其中讓他們害怕的主要是中國的企業債。
Although this issue has been well-flagged, disquiet over its size and sustainability is deepening.
儘管這個問題早已得到極大強調，但對其規模和可持續性的不安正在加深。
A report by S&P Global Ratings estimates that China’s total outstanding corporate debt in 2015 was $17.8tn, or 171 per cent of GDP, making its corporate debt mountain by far the world’s largest in both absolute and relative terms.
據標普全球評級(S&P Global Ratings)發佈的一份報告估計，2015年中國未結清企業債總計達17.8萬億美元，與國內生產總值(GDP)之比爲171%。不論是絕對規模還是相對比率，中國企業債大山都是全球遙遙領先最大的。
Not only is the ratio of Chinese company debt to GDP more than double that in the US and the eurozone, it is projected to grow far more quickly as an increasing number of heavily indebted companies ramp up borrowing simply to repay debts that are due.
中國企業債與GDP之比超過美國和歐元區兩倍，不僅如此，隨着越來越多債務沉重的企業僅僅爲償還到期債務而增加借款，預計這一比率將大幅加快上升。
By 2020, China’s outstanding corporate debt will be $32.6tn, while its share of global company borrowings will have risen to 43 per cent from 35 per cent last year, according to S&P estimates.
根據標普(S&P)的估計，到2020年，中國未結清企業債將達到32.6萬億美元，其佔全球企業借款的份額將從去年的35%升至43%。
More worrying than China’s debt mountain is its shaky internal structure.
比中國債務大山更令人擔心的是其搖搖欲墜的內部結構。
Just over half of the 1,943 large Chinese companies assessed by S&P fell into the agency’s highly leveraged category, the most risky of five classifications based on a company’s perceived ability to service debts out of earnings.
在標普評估的1943家中國大型企業中，略高於一半落入該機構的高度槓桿化類別——在根據企業藉助盈利償還債務本息的能力劃分的五種類別中，這是風險最高的類別。
Such dynamics have divided opinion.
這種局面引發了不同看法。
Some say a sudden slowdown in China’s growth rate would push legions of Chinese groups over the edge, resulting in a surge in bond defaults and non-performing loans.
有人表示，中國經濟增速突然放緩，會讓大量中國企業集團陷入困境，導致債券違約和不良貸款激增。
Others counter that the Chinese state will ride to the rescue to prevent any systemic credit crunch.
而其他人反駁稱，中國政府會出手救援，以阻止任何系統性的信貸緊縮。
China’s debt is overwhelmingly a family affair, says Luke Spajic, head of portfolio management for emerging Asia at Pimco, an asset manager. We expect leverage to rise, but the important point is that they are borrowing within the family.
資產管理公司太平洋投資管理公司(Pimco)新興亞洲組合投資管理主管盧克•斯帕伊奇(Luke Spajic)表示，中國債務在很大程度上屬於家庭事務，我們預計槓桿率將上升，但重要的是他們在家庭內部借貸。
He notes China’s economy is largely a closed system in which state-owned banks, which are answerable ultimately to Beijing, lend to domestic companies, while bonds are bought mostly by state-owned financial institutions.
他指出，中國經濟基本上是一個封閉的體系，國有銀行最終對中央政府負責，它們貸款給國內企業，而債券多數由國有金融機構購買。
Beijing’s control over this system, allied to its policy of flooding the economy with liquidity, has meant that financial institutions take a dovish attitude to non-performing loans and encourage debt rollovers.
中國政府對這個體系的控制，再加上向經濟投入鉅額流動性的政策意味着，金融機構對不良貸款態度溫和並鼓勵債務滾轉。
The S&P report estimates that $13.4tn, or nearly half, of credit demand in China by 2020 will be for refinancing purposes.
標準普爾的報告估計，到2020年，13.4萬億美元（相當於近一半）的中國信貸需求將用於再融資。
Thus, Mr Spajic says, while China has a plethora of problems — including private sector investment growth falling close to zero, a reliance on inefficient state-owned enterprises and a high level of bad debts in the banking system — the strength of state control should allow Beijing to manage its frailties.
因此，斯帕伊奇表示，儘管中國存在很多問題（包括私營部門投資增速降至接近零的水平、依賴低效率的國有企業以及銀行體系壞賬水平較高），但政府控制的優勢應該會讓北京方面管理其弱點。
Nevertheless, he expects China to resume a policy of currency depreciation to lift growth.
然而，他預計，中國將重啓人民幣貶值政策以提振增長。
Other managers say China’s debt problems bedevil the whole emerging markets investment opportunity because China assets generally have a large weighting in benchmark indices, meaning benchmark-linked funds are unable to avoid a hefty exposure to China.
其他資產管理公司表示，中國的債務問題困擾着整個新興市場投資機遇，因爲中國資產一般佔基準指數的較大權重，這意味着與基準指數掛鉤的基金無法規避巨大的中國敞口。
For example, the MSCI Emerging Market index has a 26 per cent weighting to China.
例如，中國在MSCI明晟新興市場指數中佔有26%的權重。
The resolution of the Chinese question is something that weighs across the EM asset class, says Leon Eidelman, emerging markets portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management.
中國問題的解決拖累着整個新興市場資產類別，摩根大通資產管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)新興市場組合投資經理萊昂•艾德爾曼(Leon Eidelman)表示，
I don’t think it takes a lot to look at the Chinese financial sector and see how precarious some of these banks are.
我認爲，不需要花費很多時間研究中國的金融業，就會發現其中一些銀行是多麼岌岌可危。
The amount of off-balance-sheet loans, loans that are booked as receivables, and short-term lending to non-bank financial institutions far outweighs capital buffers.
表外貸款（被記爲應收賬款的貸款）以及發放給非銀行金融機構的短期貸款，遠遠超出了資本緩衝。
However, Alex Wolf, emerging markets economist at Standard Life, says China is such a large country that even though its GDP growth rate is likely to slow gradually as Beijing grapples with its debt problem, there will still parts of the economy that remain attractive .
然而，標準人壽(Standard Life)新興市場經濟學家亞歷克斯•沃爾夫(Alex Wolf)表示，中國規模龐大，儘管在北京方面應對國內債務問題之際，GDP增速可能逐漸放緩，但一些經濟領域仍然具備吸引力。
While steel, cement, mining and other old-economy stalwarts are struggling, there are plenty of opportunities in the service and technology sectors for those who take a more nuanced view of China, Mr Wolf says.
沃爾夫表示，儘管鋼鐵、水泥、採礦等傳統中堅行業步履維艱，但對於那些對中國有着更細膩認識的人，服務業和科技行業存在大量機會。
As for the rest of Asia, economies such as those of the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and India provide investors with plenty of scope for emerging market investing, he adds.
他補充稱，對於亞洲其他國家而言，菲律賓、越南、印尼和印度等經濟體爲投資者提供了大量新興市場投資空間。
