長線觀點 美聯儲沉默是金

The sounds of silence. The prospect of tighter Federal Reserve policy and a disorderly slide in China’s renminbi have dominated fearful market conversations for much of the year. Now, as the frightened chatter quietens to barely a whisper, investors are playing catch-up on performance.

沉默之聲。今年以來的大部分時間裏，美聯儲(Fed)收緊政策和人民幣無序下滑的前景主導着憂慮的市場言論。現在，隨着這些憂慮的談論漸漸平息，投資者開始買入各種資產，推高了金融市場。

Many began the week embracing a disappointing US jobs report for May as another example of bad news being a good thing.

上週開始時，很多人將美國令人失望的5月份就業報告看成“壞消息是利好”的又一個例證。

Commonly known as the central bank put, it’s when weaker economic news prompts investors to buy equities, commodities and corporate debt in the belief that interest rate policy will remain loose, or in the case of the US Fed this summer, happily unchanged.

這個道理通常被稱爲“央行對策”，即更爲疲弱的經濟新聞會促使投資者買入股票、大宗商品和企業債務，因爲他們相信利率政策將會保持寬鬆，或者就如這個夏天的美聯儲一樣，皆大歡喜地保持不變。

The dousing of an imminent shift higher in US borrowing costs has followed signs of a firmer appetite for risk taking this month, notably across emerging markets, commodities and credit.

美國借貸成本即將升高的前景被澆滅之前，本月有跡象表明人們的冒險意願增大，尤其是在新興市場、大宗商品和信貸領域。

This week, global equities as measured by the FTSE All World Index, oil prices, currencies led by Brazil and Russia all registered fresh peaks for the year. Measures of US investment grade and high yield credit also reached their richest levels for 2016, with the average yield on Moody’s BAA index back under 4.60 per cent for the first time in more than a year.

上週，全球股票（用富時環球指數(FTSE All World Index)衡量）、油價、由巴西和俄羅斯領頭的新興市場貨幣，都創下了今年以來的新高。美國投資級和高收益率信貸的指標也達到了2016年迄今的最高水平，其中穆迪(Moody’s) BAA級債券收益率指數一年多以來首次回落至4.6%以下。

As Wall Street took a shot at setting a new record high for the S&P 500 and oil’s momentum sought traction beyond $50 a barrel, a canary in the form of the 10-year Treasury note yield, was also chirping.

隨着華爾街把標普500指數(S&P 500)推向新高，隨着油價尋求在每桶50美元上方獲得進一步上漲勢頭，作爲“煤礦坑裏的金絲雀”（意指報警器——譯者注）的10年期美國國債收益率也在發出輕鬆愉快的啁啾聲。

Slipping below 1.70 per cent, the benchmark yield has broken through the floor that prevailed in the wake of market stress peaking back in February. Given how we have moved well beyond the new year fears over global growth prospects, the message from the bond market appears to challenge the current mood in riskier assets such as equities.

作爲基準，這種國債的收益率下滑至1.7%以下，跌破了市場壓力在今年2月達到頂峯以來維持至今的下限。考慮到我們早已擺脫了今年開年時對全球增長前景的恐懼，來自債券市場的訊息似乎在挑戰目前市場對股票等風險較高資產的情緒。

In a world where $10.4tn of bonds currently yield below zero, and the average yield of German government debt for the first time this week turned negative, US Treasury and corporate paper stands out as a high yielder.

目前有價值10.4萬億美元的債券的收益率在零以下，德國國債的平均收益率上週也首次轉爲負值，在這樣的背景下，美國國債和企業票據作爲高收益資產脫穎而出。

Foreign demand for Treasury bonds sold last month was robust, and a strong reception for this week’s sale of 10-year notes suggests no shortage of buyers outside the US.

上月，外國對美國國債的需求十分強勁，而上週10年期國債發行所受到的熱烈追捧似乎表明，美國境外不乏買家。

Richer US Treasury prices clearly reflect the global hunt for yield and the distortions created by negative interest rate policy in Japan and Europe.

美國國債價格上升，顯然反映出全球對收益率的尋求，以及日本和歐洲的負利率政策造成的扭曲。

For investors embracing risk assets, the grim message of ever lower government bond yields can thus be downplayed. Rather than suggesting a sharp economic downturn looms, the risk chasers can contend that top tier government bond yields are artificially low. Moreover, the paltry yields on offer pale beside the current dividends of companies.

因此，對於擁抱風險資產的投資者而言，不必太注重政府債券收益率越來越低所傳遞的陰暗訊息。與其說債券收益率極低暗示了一場急劇的經濟低迷撲面而來，風險追逐者可以認爲，政府債券收益率是被人爲壓低的。況且，與當前的公司股息相比，這些收益率顯得微不足道。

It means a falling 10-year Treasury yield can be reconciled with swelling risk appetite that views May’s sudden deceleration in US job growth as a typical mid-cycle blip, rather than a harbinger of something more troubling.

這意味着，可以認爲10年期美國國債收益率下滑與風險偏好的上升之間並無矛盾；風險偏好上升是因爲投資者將5月美國就業增長突然減速視爲典型的週期中段波動，而非令人更爲不安局面的先兆。

That argument, helped by firmer oil prices and a weaker dollar, set the tone until Thursday, when the steady shift lower in top tier US, German and UK bond yields finally placed a brake on risk appetite for equities and emerging markets.

在油價上揚和美元走軟的幫助下，這種觀點確立了基調——直到上週四，那天評級最高的美國、德國及英國債券收益率穩步下滑，終於剎住了對股票和新興市場的風險偏好。

Market trends, however always fluctuate and flirt with moments of doubt.

然而，市場趨勢總是在波動的，而且不時會出現疑慮。

Certainly, buyers of gold and Treasury debt are also looking at falling US corporate profits, lofty valuations and the declining quality of company debt around the world — particularly in China and the US — as classic late-cycle warnings flags. At some point, winter beckons for the shareholder friendly era of corporate dividends and buybacks.

購買黃金及美國國債的買家肯定也將美國企業利潤下滑、估值高企以及世界各地企業債務質量下降——特別是在中國和美國——視爲經典的週期末段警告標誌。在某個時間點，股東友好的企業派息和股票回購時代將迎來“寒冬”。

Before such a reckoning emerges, the general trend of rising risk appetite appears to have further room to run even if there will be potholes and bumps in the road. Talk of a melt-up in equities, that steadily pushes up prices, echoes among research analysts and investors.

在這樣的清算時刻到來之前，風險偏好上升的總體趨勢似乎還有進一步空間，即便前方道路有坑窪和顛簸。有關股票“融漲”——即各種因素穩步推高股價——的談論在研究分析師和投資者當中引發共鳴。

With three weeks remaining in the current quarter, investors whose performance has lagged behind their benchmarks can be expected to buy and push valuations higher.

鑑於本季度僅剩3周時間，可以預期，業績落後於基準的投資機構將買入資產，從而進一步推高估值。

True, a UK rejection of EU membership later this month will test risk appetite, however the global consequences of an actual Brexit appear limited, while that outcome would also prompt monetary easing from the Bank of England, with other central banks standing ready to shore up sentiment.

沒錯，本月晚些時候英國退出歐盟將考驗投資者的風險偏好，然而，英國退歐的全球后果似乎有限，同時，這一結果也將促使英國央行(Bank of England)實施貨幣寬鬆政策，而其他央行也準備扶持信心。

Of all the central banks, a relatively silent Fed this summer is the most influential factor for asset prices, as it will keep any potential dollar rally at bay.

所有央行之中，美聯儲今夏的相對沉默是對資產價格影響最大的因素，因爲它將阻止美元反彈。

As Alan Ruskin at Deutsche notes: ‘’The market will need some convincing that a July rate hike is warranted. An alternative delay in Fed tightening to September or December feels like a long time to wait for the most obvious risk negative event to intercede.’’

正如德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的艾倫•拉斯金(Alan Ruskin)指出的：“市場將需要一些令人信服的證據，證明7月加息是有道理的。另一個可能是美聯儲將政策收緊延遲至9月或12月，那感覺像是等待很長時間讓最明顯的負面風險事件證明謹慎有理。”