走回舉債刺激老路的中國
The surge in trading on China’s commodity exchanges is the latest example of speculative frenzy in an economy awash with credit. From the rise of shadow banking, to real estate bubbles and August’s stock market crash, regulators have struggled to contain the excesses resulting from Beijing’s habit of supporting growth through debt-fuelled stimulus. The rush into metals markets follows record credit expansion of more than Rmb6tn in the first quarter, engineered by officials to prevent a sharp slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.
中國各大宗商品交易所的交易量激增，是這個信貸氾濫的經濟體中投機狂潮的最新例子。從影子銀行的興起、房地產泡沫，到去年的股市崩盤，監管機構一直在艱難地控制市場過度行爲，而後者是北京方面通過債務驅動的刺激來支撐增長的一貫做法造成的。爲了阻止世界第二大經濟體大幅放緩，在中國政府官員的主導下，第一季度信貸出現逾6萬億元人民幣的創紀錄擴張，之後資金涌入金屬市場。
Such episodes are a growing concern for international investors. As China’s role in the global financial system grows, so too does its ability to trigger turbulence in global markets. However, it is easy to criticise Beijing for resorting once again to credit creation to pump up growth. It is less easy to come up with an attractive alternative for policymakers.
這樣的情況讓國際投資者日益感到擔憂。隨着中國在全球金融系統中的地位上升，其在全球市場中引發動盪的能力也上升了。然而，批評北京方面再次訴諸信貸創造以促進增長很容易。爲政策制定者提出一個有吸引力的替代選項就沒那麼容易了。
The risks of China’s vast debt pile are apparent. A total debt load equivalent to some 240 per cent of gross domestic product — far higher than most emerging markets — is clearly unsustainable in the long term, especially since a significant proportion is held by lossmaking state-owned enterprises in sectors suffering from chronic overcapacity. Even more worrying is the speed at which debt has accumulated — with credit creation accelerating even as economic growth has slowed.
中國鉅額債務的風險很明顯。相當於國內生產總值(GDP) 240%左右的總債務負擔遠高於大多數新興市場，從長期來看明顯是不可持續的，尤其是其中相當一部分來自於長期產能過剩領域的虧損國有企業。更讓人憂慮的是債務積累的速度——在經濟增長放緩的時候，信貸創造依然在加速。
Yet investors clearly find these risks less frightening than an imminent prospect of the economy crashing and the currency plunging — the fears that sent global markets into a tailspin at the start of the year. Beijing’s actions since January have cast doubt on its commitment to difficult economic reforms, but they have also helped to stabilise the exchange rate and led to a welcome pick-up in industrial profits.
然而投資者顯然發現這些風險不如經濟崩潰和貨幣暴跌的危急前景可怕——這種恐懼讓全球市場在今年年初陷入了混亂。北京方面1月以來的行動使其進行艱難的經濟改革的承諾受到質疑，但這些行動也的確促進了匯率的穩定，使工業利潤出現可喜的回升。
Moreover, the risk of a full-blown financial crisis seems limited. China’s overall debt level is less alarming in the context of the country’s largely closed capital account, its high savings rate — which means that households finance lending to corporates — and the economy’s growth potential. There is also considerable scope for the government to shift corporate debts (which in practice often relate to state-owned companies or local government) on to its own balance sheet, which remains robust, backed by still-vast official reserves.
此外，發生全面金融危機的風險似乎十分有限。考慮到中國基本封閉的資本賬戶、高儲蓄率（這意味着居民在爲企業貸款提供資金）以及中國經濟的增長潛力，中國總體債務水平沒那麼可怕。而且，中國政府還有很大的餘地，可以把企業債務（這些債務實際上往往與國有企業或地方政府有關）轉移至自己的資產負債表上。而在中國仍然龐大的官方儲備支持下，中國政府的資產負債表依然十分強健。
However, this will merely defer the problem, albeit for some years, unless China comes up with a comprehensive plan to tackle the corporate sector’s bad debts. As the International Monetary Fund has warned, the government’s current proposals for financial restructuring of non-performing loans (through debt-for-equity swaps and securitisation) will be insufficient, and possibly counterproductive, unless it also tackles the underlying need for industrial restructuring, including in politically sensitive sectors.
然而，如果中國不構想出全面計劃解決企業部門的壞債，上述做法只會推遲這一問題——儘管可以推遲幾年。正如國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)所警告的，如果不同時進行亟需的根本產業重組（包括政治敏感產業），中國政府目前的不良貸款財務重組方案（通過債轉股和證券化）將是不夠的。
Rebalancing China’s economy is a Herculean task and it is almost inevitable that stimulus policies will continue for the foreseeable future as authorities try to manage the process. What is important is to ensure that this is more profitably employed. The authorities’ reflex has too often been to prop up zombie companies in sectors dogged by overcapacity, with effects on industrial rivals across the world. Yet investment is still needed in health, education, urban housing and transport, and an enormous environmental clean-up.
中國經濟再平衡是個艱鉅的任務。由於當局努力管控這一進程，在可預見的未來繼續推出刺激性政策幾乎不可避免。重要的是確保這種手段的運用能產生更大回報。中國當局的本能在太多情況下是支持產能過剩行業中的殭屍企業，這對全球的業內競爭對手都產生了影響。然而，醫療、教育、城鎮住房與交通、以及艱鉅的環境治理，仍然亟需投資。
In the most benign scenario, it will still take the best part of a decade to reduce China’s debt burden to a more sustainable level. In the meantime, the rest of the world can expect to feel the effects of China’s failure to reform and rebalance its economy earlier.
即便在最好的情況下，把中國債務負擔降至可持續發展的水平，也將用掉近十年時間。同時，全球其他地區可以預見，由於中國無法更早改革和再平衡經濟，它們將受到影響。
