從安邦放棄收購喜達屋一窺中國海外投資風向

HONG KONG — An obscure phrase on foreign investment tucked into China’s insurance regulations is being viewed as stunningly cryptic by Western standards. But the collection of words — not even a full sentence — adds to the mystery surrounding the sudden decision by the Chinese insurer Anbang Insurance Group to walk away from a $14 billion bid for the Starwood hotel chain.

香港——以西方標準來看，蘊含在中國保險監管規定中的有關外國投資的一個模糊說法，是極其隱晦的。但這組甚至不是一個整句的詞語，讓中國保險公司安邦集團突然做出的放棄以140億美元競購喜達屋酒店連鎖的決策顯得更加神祕難解。

The phrase allows insurance companies to make overseas investments, provided the total does not exceed 15 percent of their assets. But the rule does not specify how to calculate the value of the foreign investments.

該條文允許保險公司進行海外投資，前提是收購金額不能超過自身資產的15%。不過，這項規定並沒有明確說明如何給海外投資估值。

For example, it does not indicate whether to use historical prices or market prices, nor which exchange rate to use. The rule does not even specify how to determine an insurer’s assets, except to say that they shall be calculated at the end of the previous year.

比如，它沒有指出是按歷史價格還是市場價格計算，也沒有明確使用什麼匯率。這項規定甚至未能說明如何確定一家保險公司的資產額，只說應該按照前一年年底的數值計算。

So regulators have a lot of wiggle room. If the China Insurance Regulatory Commission made an unfavorable calculation, it might have raised the uncertainty for Anbang, compelling the company and its partner to withdraw the bid.

所以監管部門有很大的迴旋餘地。如果中國保險監督管理委員做出不利的估算，就可能會給安邦帶來不確定性，這迫使該公司及其合作方撤消了收購要約。

The derailed deal reflects the changing fortunes in China.

這項受挫的交易反映出中國形勢的變化。

In the last couple of years, the Chinese authorities encouraged insurers and other companies to make large overseas acquisitions as a way to diversify and expand beyond their borders. Real estate was particularly attractive, and a rush of Chinese companies as well as wealthy families snapped up properties overseas. The results of a survey a year ago indicated that buyers from China were buying one in every 14 homes sold for more than $1 million in the United States.

過去幾年，中國當局鼓勵保險等領域的企業進行大規模海外併購，以此實現資產多樣化和海外擴張。房地產尤其具有吸引力，有一大批中國企業和富裕家庭爭相在海外購置房產。一年前的一份調查顯示，美國每出售14座賣價超過100萬美元的房屋，就有一座是被中國買家購得。

But such overseas investments are coming under increased scrutiny as the Chinese economy slows.

然而，隨着中國經濟增長放緩，此類海外投資開始受到越來越嚴格的審覈。

Overseas acquisitions account for a significant source of capital outflows. And those outflows, which have weighed on the currency and the markets, have become a major point of concern for the Chinese authorities.

海外收購是中國資金外流的一個重要源頭。而資金外流給中國的貨幣和市場帶來不少壓力，逐漸成爲中國當局的一大顧慮。

China has been trying hard to slow a rapid flow of money to foreign markets since last summer. And Hong Kong financiers suggested this year that the government had been pressuring insurers to temper their purchases.

自去年夏天開始，中國一直在努力減慢資金外流的速度。有香港金融業高管今年指出，政府一直在向保險公司施壓，要其放慢收購計劃。

Anbang has been one of the most acquisitive Chinese insurers.

安邦一直是收購慾望最強烈的中國保險公司之一。

Less than three weeks ago, Anbang agreed to pay $6.5 billion to Blackstone to acquire Strategic Hotels and Resorts, which has more than a dozen luxury United States hotels. (The Blackstone transaction is expected to close this year.) Anbang already owns the Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York, which it acquired for $1.95 billion in 2014.

不到三個星期以前，安邦剛剛與黑石集團(Blackstone)達成協議，將支付65億美元收購該集團旗下的戰略酒店及度假村(Strategic Hotels and Resorts)，後者的資產包括十多座美國豪華酒店。（與黑石集團的交易有望在年內完成。）此前，安邦已在2014年以19.5億美元收購了位於紐約的華爾道夫酒店(Waldorf Astoria)。

If the insurance rules played a role in the abandonment of the Starwood deal, it is also telling that it was Anbang that dropped the deal. Anbang has deep political connections. And typically those ties have insulated companies until now, giving them more leeway with regulators.

如果保險業監管規定的確在喜達屋交易作罷一事中發揮了作用，那麼，是安邦放棄了收購這一點也很說明問題。該公司擁有深厚的政治人脈。此前這些關係往往深藏不露，因此在監管機構那裏有更多的活動餘地。

“It would be good for everybody in China to see that the rules are being applied more uniformly than people would have anticipated,” said David Zweig, the director of the Center on China’s Transnational Relations at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

“這是好事，讓中國所有人都看到，規則的執行比人們預期的更加一視同仁，”香港科技大學跨國關係研究中心主任崔大偉(David Zweig)說。

Financing, too, may have been an issue.

融資可能也是一個問題。

Starwood was not comfortable with Anbang’s ability to finance the latest bid of $14 billion, according to people briefed on the matter. An earlier bid by Marriott, just $700 million lower, appeared to meet Starwood’s expectations.

知情者透露，安邦最後一次出價140億美元時，喜達屋對它的融資能力感到不安。萬豪之前的出價僅低7億美元，似乎達到了喜達屋的期望。

Anbang declined to comment. Its partners — the American private equity firm J. C. Flowers & Company and another private equity firm based in Beijing and Hong Kong, Primavera Capital — did not respond to requests for comment, nor did the insurance commission.

安邦拒絕置評。其合作伙伴——美國私募企業J. C. Flowers & Company及設在北京和香港的私募企業春華資本(Primavera Capital)——也沒有回覆記者的置評請求。中國保監會亦是如此。

The 15 percent rule appears in Chinese insurance regulations as early as 2012. But it really became relevant only a year and a half ago, when the Chinese government started encouraging insurance companies to invest overseas. Even now, the Chinese insurance industry remains overwhelmingly domestic; only 1.5 percent of its assets were invested overseas as of last summer.

15%的規定最早出現在2012年的中國保險條例中。但直到一年半前，它才變得重要起來，也就是中國政府開始鼓勵保險公司到境外投資的時候。即使到現在，中國保險業仍是基本上在國內運作；截至去年夏天，投資境外的資產只佔1.5%。

Anbang is one of the few insurers that have made a big overseas push, so the company has been viewed as a test case of how the 15 percent rule would be enforced. But Anbang is a particularly complicated corporate group to analyze for calculating asset ratios.

安邦是大力推動海外業務的爲數不多的保險公司之一，因此業界把它看作是對15%規則如何執行的一個測試。不過對於資產比率計算來說，安邦是一個分析起來特別複雜的企業集團。

For example, Anbang bought a 35 percent stake in the Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank in 2011 for nearly $1 billion. But Anbang is closely held. And the limited publicly available data on the insurer does not make clear whether it has included a portion of the bank’s assets in figures for its total domestic assets.

例如，安邦在2011年斥資近10億美元購買了成都農村商業銀行35%的股份。不過安邦被人牢牢掌控着。它公開的數據很有限，看不出其國內總資產中是否包含該銀行的那部分資產。