企業以股抵債能否挽救中國經濟
HONG KONG — A new approach to managing China’s corporate debt burden may offer temporary relief for banks but spell further difficulties for the country’s economy: having deeply troubled companies use stock to pay overdue loans.
香港——用一種新的方式來處理中國企業的債務負擔，可能會暫時緩解銀行的壓力，但卻可能給中國經濟帶來更多問題：讓深陷困境的公司用股票來支付逾期貸款。
Early evidence of the strategy emerged late Thursday, when a heavily indebted Chinese shipbuilder disclosed that it would issue equity to its creditors, instead of repaying $2.17 billion in bank loans.
這種策略的早期跡象在本週四晚出現：一家負債累累的中國造船企業表示將向債權人發行股票，而不是償還21.7億美元的銀行貸款。
If Chinese companies were to broadly adopt the approach for their debt issues, banks could temporarily shore up their balance sheets by replacing troubled loans with shares that have at least some value. But accepting stakes in highly indebted companies is likely to make banks even more reluctant to shut them down.
如果中國企業廣泛採取這樣的做法來處理債務問題，銀行可以暫時使用至少具有一定的價值的股票來替換不良貸款，讓其資產負債表有些起色。不過，接受了高負債企業的股份之後，銀行可能就更加不願意關閉它們了。
And that could mean China will be stuck with enormous overcapacity in industrial sectors including shipbuilding, steel and cement, hampering economic growth for years to come.
這可能意味着，中國的造船、鋼鐵、水泥等工業領域將陷入巨大的產能過剩中，在未來幾年裏拖累中國的經濟增長。
This latest strategy has some advantages. It would allow companies to cut their debt loads. In doing so, they could potentially improve their credit profiles, borrow more from banks, and keep their businesses running.
這個最新策略有一定的好處。公司可以利用它來減輕債務負擔。採用這種做法，公司可能會提高自己的信用狀況，從銀行借到更多資金，繼續經營業務。
It also makes banks’ loan books appear healthier, since they can reduce the amount of past-due loans. Financial markets have been fixated on Chinese banks’ portfolios of so-called nonperforming loans. And halting the recent expansion of these loans has become a high priority for Chinese bank executives.
這也會讓銀行的貸款業務顯得更加健康，因爲逾期貸款金額將會減少。金融市場一直緊盯着中國銀行業的不良貸款狀況。抑制這些貸款近期出現的擴大，已成爲中國銀行高管的當務之急。
While repaying loans with shares might seem a quick solution to China’s enormous debt overhang, it could make the problems more pernicious.
雖然對於中國巨大的債務負擔問題，用股份償還貸款似乎是一個立竿見影的解決方案，但它可能會帶來更大的危害。
In effect, it is just another way for troubled Chinese companies to put off making hard choices, like laying off employees and closing operations. Rather, businesses can continue to limp along, even when their underlying operations are not making money and customer demand has evaporated.
實際上，這仍然只會讓陷入困境的中國企業推遲作出裁員、停產等艱難的選擇，讓它們在基本業務已經不能賺錢，客戶需求已經消失的情況下繼續蹣跚而行。
Such problems have been at the root of China’s economic issues, as many state-owned enterprises, or S.O.E.s, and private companies have continued to roll over the debt and keep their operations going. The government has supported the tactic, in an effort to avert mass layoffs and maintain social stability.
這些問題一直是中國經濟的癥結所在，因爲有很多國有企業和私人公司仍在爲了維持運轉而進行債務展期。政府支持它們採用這種策略，以免出現大規模裁員，從而維護社會的穩定。
The new approach is “in a nutshell, very bad news for S.O.E. reform and, more specifically, for the solvency of Chinese banks,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, the chief economist for Asia at Natixis, a French investment bank.
這種新方法，“簡單地說，對於國企改革是個非常壞的消息，更具體地說，對於該國銀行的償付能力也是如此，”法國投行Natixis亞洲區首席經濟學家艾麗西亞·加西亞·耶赫雷羅(Alicia Garcia Herrero)說。
At this point, it is unclear how widespread this strategy has become among Chinese companies. The shipbuilder, China Huarong Energy Company Limited, had to disclose the move only because the company is listed on the Hong Kong stock market. Mainland companies not listed overseas don’t face the same stringent rules.
目前還不清楚這一策略在中國公司中有多普遍。經營造船業的中國華榮能源股份有限公司因爲是在香港上市，所以纔不得不透露了這種舉措。沒有在境外上市的內地企業不會面臨這種嚴格的規則。
Two finance specialists with ties to mainland China regulators say the government is working on a broader plan to allow troubled companies to repay loans with shares instead of cash. They declined to speak on the record, citing the sensitivity of the issue within China. Reuters on Thursday reported on regulators’ efforts to help ease banks’ bad debt.
和中國大陸監管部門有聯繫的兩名金融專家說，政府正在制定一項更廣泛的計劃，讓陷入困境的企業可以用股份而非現金的方式償還貸款。他們拒絕對此事發表正式意見，稱這個問題在中國很敏感。本週四，路透社報道了監管部門幫助緩解銀行壞賬的努力。
Officials at the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, and the China Banking Regulatory Commission could not be reached for comment late Thursday night. Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank’s governor, and three of his deputies are scheduled to hold a news conference on Saturday morning in Beijing, near the session of the National People’s Congress.
週四晚間，記者無法聯繫到中國的央行——中國人民銀行——及中國銀行業監督管理委員會的官員置評。央行行長周小川及其三名副手將於週六上午全國人大召開前在北京舉行新聞發佈會。
The debt issue is core to the debate over where China’s economy is headed.
在有關中國經濟前景的爭論中，債務是一個核心問題。
China avoided most of the ill effects of the global financial crisis by ordering the state-controlled banking system to engineer a major increase in the money supply. Those banks channeled huge loans to companies and to government construction projects.
中國曾通過要求國家控制的銀行系統大幅增加貨幣供應，避免了全球金融危機的大部分不利影響。這些銀行向公司及政府建設項目提供了大量貸款。
While the stimulus helped stoke growth, the country’s debt burden ballooned.
雖然這種刺激舉措幫助推動增長，但中國的債務負擔也因此激增。
Overall debt in China was equal to slightly more than one year’s economic output as recently as 2008. It now stands at 2.5 years’ economic output — above levels considered dangerous in other countries. The debt is still rising, and most of it is owed by companies.
近在2008年的時候，中國的整體債務還只略高於一年的經濟產出。如今的債務水平相當於2.5年的經濟產出——高於其他國家認爲的危險水平。債務仍在不斷增加，其中大部分是公司債務。
The stock-for-debt strategy speaks to the underlying trouble at many companies.
以股抵債的策略證明了很多公司存在潛在麻煩。
China Huarong Energy is one of dozens of Chinese shipbuilders in financial distress as prices worldwide for new ships have halved in the past two years. It is a similar story for steel makers, cement makers and many other businesses in heavy industry.
由於全球新船價格在過去兩年降了一半，數十家中國造船公司陷入財務困境，中國華榮能源股份有限公司是其中之一。鋼鐵、水泥製造商及重工業領域的其他公司也面臨類似的困境。
China Huarong Energy has been a dismal performer on the Hong Kong stock market. Its shares have tumbled even more steeply than broad mainland Chinese stock indexes, falling 83 percent since late April 2015.
中國華榮能源公司在香港股市表現不佳。其股價的跌幅甚至超過中國內地大盤指數，自2015年4月末以來降低了83%。
The stock-for-debt swap is taking shape as Hong Kong financiers say that China’s bad debt problem has worsened appreciably in recent weeks. The problem, they said in recent interviews, is that more companies are stopping payments on their loans from mainland Chinese banks with the country’s economy continuing to slow.
在出現這種以股抵債的做法同時，香港金融機構表示，中國的壞賬問題最近幾周明顯惡化。他們最近接受採訪時稱，問題在於隨着中國經濟繼續放緩，越來越多的公司開始停止償還中國內地銀行的貸款。
That has begun to produce ripples in China’s financial system. Desperate borrowers have pledged in recent weeks to pay several percentage points in extra interest to borrow in Hong Kong, after finding that banks and other financial institutions on the mainland were reluctant to lend.
這開始在中國金融領域引起波動。在發現內地銀行及其他金融機構不願貸款後，急切的借貸者最近幾周願意多支付幾個百分點的利息，以便在香港獲得貸款。
HSBC warned on Thursday that allowing borrowers to pay in shares was a limited solution to bad debt problems. International bank standards on capital assign a large penalty to holdings of shares, meaning banks have to hold extra money against the stock.
匯豐銀行(HSBC)週四警告稱，對於壞賬問題來說，允許借貸者以股抵債是一個有限的解決方案。國際銀行資本標準會對持股處以高額罰款，這意味着銀行必須持有比股票多的資金。
But China’s five biggest banks have somewhat more capital than the standards require. So they may be able to swap some loans for shares without falling below the required minimums for capital, but are unlikely to resolve large portions of their portfolios of troubled loans through this method.
但中國五大銀行擁有的資本比標準要求的多。因此它們或許能夠進行一些以股抵債的交易，而不會出現資本少於最低標準的情況，但它們不太可能通過這種方法解決大部分涉及不良貸款的投資組合。
“We think it is unlikely to be of significant scale given there are limited ways of replenishing” capital once it has been allocated to offset equity holdings, HSBC said in a research note.
匯豐銀行在一份研究報告中指出，鑑於一旦將資本撥出用於抵消持股，“補充資本的方法有限，我們認爲不太可能大規模採用這種方法。”
