中國聯通股價上漲能否持續
One tiny step for reform, one decent bouncefor a share price.
改革的一小步，帶來了股價的可觀反彈。
On Monday China Unicom, the country’s secondmobile carrier by subscriber numbers, said it was being considered for a pilotrun of ownership reform for state-owned enterprises.
週一，中國用戶數量第二多的移動運營商中國聯通(China Unicom)表示正被考慮試點國企所有制改革。
This two-year-old plan, aiming to improvereturns on state assets, would enable partial private ownership alongside thestate, a so-called mixed ownership.
這一已提出兩年的計劃旨在提高國有資產的回報，它將在政府持股的同時允許部分私人持股——即所謂混合所有制。
Yesterday, its H shares (a quarter of thecompany is listed in Hong Kong) popped as much as 6 per cent.
昨天，該公司港股（該公司有四分之一在香港上市）股價躍升幅度高達6%。
China Unicom needs a shake-up.
中國聯通需要整頓。
With mobile penetration in China exceeding90 per cent, the structural growth story is done.
隨着中國移動市場滲透率超過90%，結構化增長的故事已經結束。
During upgrade cycles, Unicom has sufferedfrom its relatively small scale; it was slow, for instance, to introduce 4G.
在升級週期期間，中國聯通受到了其相對較小的規模的影響。
A distant number two to China Mobile,Unicom has been a market follower, winning subscribers mainly on price.
比如，它引入4G的速度就比較緩慢。
That shows up in its share performance;since 2010 Unicom has returned minus 10 per cent.
作爲遠遠落後於中國移動(China Mobile)的市場老二，中國聯通一直是市場跟隨者，主要依靠價格贏得用戶。
China Mobile is up by more than half.
這一點在其股價表現中表露無遺。
The telecoms sector is familiar withgovernment reform.
自2010年以來，中國聯通的股價已跌去了10%，而中國移動則上漲一半以上。
Last year, Beijing pushed mobile operatorsto combine their infrastructure assets in a new entity, China Tower, reducingcapital expenditure across the sector.
中國電信部門中，政府主導的改革並不鮮見。
What mixed ownership would entail is stillunclear.
去年，中國政府迫使移動運營商將其基礎設施資產合併爲新的實體中國鐵塔(China Tower)，從而降低全行業的資本開支。
But it seems unlikely that an anticipatedmerger between Unicom and number three player China Telecom(also HongKong-listed), will go ahead.
混合所有制會有什麼內涵目前仍不清楚。不過，人們期待的中國聯通和市場第三中國電信（China Telecom，該公司也在香港上市）之間的合併似乎不太可能發生。
Instead, expect a search for a strategicinvestor —the government has said a stake sale to an industry giant is oneoption.
相反，預計中國聯通會尋找一位戰略投資者——中國政府已經表示向業內巨頭銷售股份是一個可能的選項。
Baidu, Alibaba or Tencent arelikely candidates, says Jefferies, but there is no obvious appeal for them.
傑富瑞(Jefferies)表示，百度(Baidu)、阿里巴巴(Alibaba)或騰訊(Tencent)都是可能的候選人，但看不出這對它們有什麼明顯的吸引力。
Although it still trails its key rivals,China Unicom has been catching up in 4G; in July and August it had netadditions of more than 5m subscribers, accelerating from the second quarter’s monthlyaverage of 4.4m.
儘管目前仍落後於主要競爭對手，中國聯通在4G方面一直在迎頭趕上。
Without credible progress on public-privateownership, however, the shares will drift back to the ground.
今年7月和8月，中國聯通淨增用戶數逾500萬，超過了第二季度440萬的月度平均值。不過，如果在混合所有制方面不能取得可信的進展，其股價將回落常態水平。
