油價持續下跌 廉價能源成爲新王道

The price of oil keeps on falling; the shale gas boom has reduced the price of natural gas in the US to a third of that in France; Germany has appealed to Sweden for its support in expanding two coal mines; and the EU’s effort to switch to clean energy is troubled. For companies wondering where to locate, the world has turned upside down.

油價持續下跌，頁岩氣繁榮讓美國天然氣價格降至法國價格的三分之一；德國懇請瑞典對擴建兩座煤礦的計劃予以支持，歐盟(EU)轉向清潔能源的努力麻煩不斷。對那些還在考慮該在哪裏建廠的公司來說，世界已經發生了天翻地覆的變化。

Cheap energy is the new cheap labour. For two decades, the biggest driving force in industrial globalisation was the gap in the price of labour between the developed world and China. That induced many industries – textiles, electronics and others – to shift production from high-cost factories in the US and Europe to places where people would work for a fraction of the cost.

20年來，工業全球化最重要的驅動力就是發達世界與中國之間的勞動力價格差距。這種差距促使紡織、電子等許多行業，將生產從美國和歐洲生產成本高昂的工廠，轉移到那些勞動力成本僅爲歐美零頭的地區。而如今，廉價能源開始代替廉價勞動力發揮這一作用。

Now, as the wage arbitrage between the north and south narrows, the energy gap is widening. Wage rates adjusted for productivity in China have risen to more than half the level in the US, according to Boston Consulting Group. Meanwhile, energy prices have been falling and the Opec oil-producing countries have failed to halt the decline. Some fortunate countries, especially the US, are gaining from both of these trends at once.

現在，薪資的南北差距不斷縮小，能源價格差距卻在日益擴大。波士頓諮詢公司(Boston Consulting Group)的數據顯示，中國經生產力調整後的工資水平已升至美國水平的一半以上。與此同時，能源價格持續下跌，歐佩克(OPEC)石油生產國也未能阻止這種下跌。一些幸運的國家（尤其是美國）同時受益於這兩種趨勢。

Although cheap fuel theoretically helps every energy-dependent country, the gains are distributed unevenly. The big beneficiary, thanks to shale natural gas, is the US. Not only is it helped by companies bringing manufacturing home but it is also an oasis of cheap gas. That is luring energy-intensive industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, aluminium and steel.

儘管能源價格下跌理論上有利於所有能源依賴國，但各國的受益程度並不一樣。得益於擁有頁岩天然氣，美國是主要的受益者。不僅公司將製造業生產遷回美國國內，而且美國還擁有豐富的廉價天然氣。這對化工、石化、鋁和鋼鐵等能源密集型行業很有吸引力。

Europe made the wrong bet. In the long run, making fossil fuels more expensive by subsidising renewables and charging for carbon emissions could bring the EU a steady supply of clean, cheap energy. At the moment, it is nullifying the benefits of lower energy prices and giving European companies an incentive to relocate.

歐洲押錯了注。長期而言，通過向可再生能源提供補貼和對碳排放收費來讓化石燃料變得更昂貴，可能爲歐盟帶來穩定的廉價清潔能源供應。但就目前而言，它抵消了能源價格下跌的益處，並促使歐洲公司撤離歐洲。

“There are no energy-intensive investments taking place in Europe now,” says Dieter Helm, professor of energy policy at the University of Oxford. “Why would you locate a new investment in a place with both high labour costs and high energy costs, many of which are self-inflicted?”

牛津大學(Oxford university)能源政策教授迪特爾•赫爾姆(Dieter Helm)表示：“歐洲現在沒有任何能源密集型企業的投資。爲什麼要在一個勞動力成本和能源成本全都很高（很大程度上是它自己造成的）的地區進行新的投資？”

Plainly, it is a lot more expensive and harder to build a new aluminium-producing plant or chemical works in another country than to outsource textile or electronics manufacturing to an existing plant in China. These are long-cycle, capital-intensive industries that cannot move on a whim.

顯然，在另一個國家新建一個鍊鋁廠或化工廠的費用和難度，要遠比將紡織或電子製造外包給中國現有的工廠大得多。鍊鋁業等行業是週期較長的資本密集型行業，不可能說遷移就能遷移的。

Energy also takes a lower share of production costs in most industries than wages or raw materials. The EEF, the UK manufacturing body, says that energy comprises 5 per cent or less of costs for 70 per cent of its members. Aluminium-smelting is the biggest fuel-guzzler, at 30 per cent of costs.

在大多數行業的生產成本中，能源所佔的份額也比薪資或原材料要小。英國製造業組織工程僱主聯合會(EEF)表示，其70%的成員企業，能源成本佔總成本比例爲5%或更低。鍊鋁廠是能源消費大戶，其能源成本佔總成本的比例達到30%。

European countries have tried to shield energy-intensive industries from the costs of switching to renewables. Germany, whose Energiewende policy of obtaining 80 per cent of electricity from clean sources by 2050 is causing intense stresses, has capped renewables charges to heavy industry, despite EU pressure to limit subsidies.

歐洲國家努力避免讓能源密集型企業承擔轉向可再生能源的成本。德國對重工業承擔的可再生能源成本設定了上限，儘管歐盟施壓要求限制補貼。德國制定的能源轉換(Energiewende)政策，要求到2050年有80%的電力來自清潔能源，這一政策引起了強烈不滿。

But the pressures are intense and are unlikely to recede. Even if European countries change tack, no large economy can match the US in shale gas. Even when the US starts to export liquefied natural gas to Europe, it will retain a significant cost advantage.

但歐盟施加的壓力非常大，且不太可能退縮。即便歐洲國家改弦更張，也沒有哪一個大型經濟體可以在頁岩天然氣方面與美國相媲美。即便當美國開始向歐洲出口液化天然氣，美國仍將保持巨大的成本優勢。

The comparative significance of energy grows as that of wages lessens. The “onshoring” of US manufacturing is assisted by rising wages elsewhere – between 2006 and 2011, Asian wages rose by 5.7 per cent per year, compared with 0.4 per cent in developed economies. Productivity has also risen: an advanced manufacturing plant often employs fewer than 200 people.

美國在能源方面的比較優勢日益擴大，而其薪資水平與其他地方的差距則日益縮小。其他地方的薪資水平逐步上升，推動了美國製造業的“迴流”——從2006年到2011年，亞洲薪資水平每年增長5.7%，而發達經濟體的薪資水平每年增長0.4%。生產率也有所提高：一家先進的製造業工廠的員工人數通常不足200人。

So companies are moving, often by picking the US when they make new investment decisions.

因此，公司正在遷移，在考慮新增投資時，通常會選擇投向美國。

BASF, the German chemicals company, is one example: it is allocating a quarter of its 20bn investment budget over five years to the US, and plans to build a $1.4bn propylene site on the Gulf Coast. Natural gas will provide not only the energy but also the chemical raw materials.

德國化工企業巴斯夫(BASF)就是一個例子：該公司打算將5年內200億歐元投資預算的四分之一投向美國，並計劃在墨西哥灣地區建造一個14億美元的丙烯工廠。天然氣不僅能提供能源，還能提供化工原料。

Even if a European company keeps a plant open, it can divert some of the production to the US.

即便一家歐洲公司不關閉本土的工廠，它也可能將一部分生產轉移到美國。

Voestalpine, the Austrian steel company, is building a 500m facility in Texas, at which it will make iron for two Austrian steel plants. It will use natural gas to power the blast furnaces in Texas rather than the coking coal it uses in Europe.

奧地利鋼企奧鋼聯集團(Voestalpine)正在美國德克薩斯州建設一家5億歐元的工廠，工廠將爲奧地利兩家鋼鐵廠生產鐵礦石。該公司將利用天然氣爲德克薩斯工廠的鼓風爐提供動力，而不是像它在歐洲的工廠那樣使用焦煤。

The temptation for Europe, caught in the middle of transition by unexpectedly low energy prices, is to dismiss such moves as marginal. Only aluminium smelters rely crucially on cheap energy; no company can close a Rhine steel plant for short-term gain; chemicals is a special case, and so forth.

能源價格的意外下跌導致歐洲的能源轉型進退兩難，眼下它很容易對上述動向不屑一顧，認爲這些都無關緊要。它可能會用各式各樣的理由安慰自己，比如：廉價能源只對鍊鋁廠有至關重要的作用；沒有哪家公司可以爲了短期利益而關閉萊茵河畔的鋼鐵廠；化工行業是特例；等等。

This would be a mistake. In the long run, there are real risks for countries that impose high costs on themselves while their competitors enjoy low ones. If everyone from the US to China adopted the approach together, it would not matter. But in a world of cheap gas and coal, it does.

這樣想是錯的。長期而言，在競爭對手享受低成本之際，那些將高成本強加於自己身上的國家，將面臨切實的風險。如果從美國到中國，所有國家都這麼做，那就沒問題了。但在一個擁有廉價天然氣和煤炭的世界裏，這樣做是有問題的。

It is a hard challenge – the US is lucky to have large, accessible shale gas reserves. But Europe must start by realising that the competitive advantage of cheap labour is giving way to that of cheap energy. Turning a blind eye to that fact will not work.

這是一項嚴峻的挑戰——美國幸運地擁有了大規模可開發的頁岩氣儲備。但歐洲必須做的首先就是，意識到廉價勞動力的競爭優勢正讓位於廉價能源。無視這一事實是沒有用的。