油價下跌 現在還沒到驚慌時候

The recent drop in crude prices won’t kill off the US shale oil industry. It’ll just make it more efficient.

最近的石油價格下跌不會將美國頁岩油行業置於死地，而只會讓它變得更有效率。

Profit margins and break-even points are relative not only to the price of oil, but also to the cost of doing business. As oil prices drop, producers will undoubtedly renegotiate their ludicrously expensive oil service contracts, slash wages for their workforce and cut perks to bring their costs in line with the depressed price for crude. The demand for oil remains strong, which should provide an adequate floor for producers in the long run, but only after they get their finances in order.

利潤率和盈虧平衡點不僅僅和油價有關，還取決於經營成本。隨着油價下跌，生產企業必將重新商討那些貴得離譜的油田服務合同，降低員工工資並削減津貼，以便讓成本和下跌的油價保持一致。對石油的需求依然旺盛，這將爲石油開採企業提供足夠的長期支撐，但後者必須首先理順自身的財務狀況。

How oil prices ever reached $100 a barrel still remains a mystery to many who have followed the industry for years. But the 40% drop in oil prices over the past six months has been shocking for oil bears and bulls alike. Why on earth did it fall so hard, so fast? There is plenty of speculation, ranging from the Saudi’s wish to “crush” the U.S. shale industry, to the U.S. colluding with the Saudi’s to flood the market in order to bankrupt an aggressive Russia and an obstinate Iran.

對許多長年跟蹤石油行業的人來說，油價如何攀升到每桶100美元仍然是個謎。而過去六個月中油價下跌了40%，同樣讓看漲和看跌的人都感到驚訝。石油價格究竟爲什麼會跌得如此之猛？如此之快？人們有各種各樣的猜測，從沙特想“摧毀”美國的頁岩油行業，到美國和沙特聯手製造供給氾濫，目的是讓咄咄逼人的俄羅斯和頑固不化的伊朗陷入破產境地，不一而足。

Conspiracy theories aside, the fact is oil prices have dropped and they may stay “low” for a while. This has analysts, journalists, and pundits running around claiming that it’s the end of the world.

讓我們先把陰謀論放在一邊，實際情況是油價已經下跌，而且可能在一段時間內保持在“較低”水平。這種局面讓分析師、記者和評論人士四處宣稱世界末日到了。

It is understandable that people are nervous. After all, the oil industry is a major producer of jobs and wealth for the U.S. It contributes around $1.2 trillion to U.S. GDP and supports over 9.3 million permanent jobs, according to a study from The Perryman Group. Not all that money and jobs come directly from the shale oil industry or even the energy industry as a whole but instead derive from the multiplier effect the industry has on local economies. Given this, it’s clear why any drop in the oil price, let alone a 40% drop, is cause for concern.

人們的緊張可以理解。畢竟，石油行業是美國就業機會和財富的主要來源。經濟分析機構The Perryman Group的研究顯示，石油行業爲美國貢獻了1.2萬億美元GDP和930多萬個長期就業機會。這些GDP和就業機會並非直接由頁岩油行業創造，甚至不是整個能源行業，而是該行業給地方經濟帶來的乘數效應所產生的。想到這一點，就明白爲什麼油價的每次下跌都會造成緊張空氣了，更別說跌幅達到了40%。

Nowhere in the U.S. is that concern felt more acutely than in Houston, Texas, the nation’s oil capital. The falling price of crude hasn’t had a major impact on the city’s economy, at least not yet. But people, especially the under-40 crowd—the Shale Boomers, as I call them—are starting to grow very worried. At bars and restaurants in Houston’s newly gentrified East End and Midtown districts, you often hear the young bucks (and does) comparing notes on their company’s break-even points with respect to oil prices. Those who work for producers with large acreage in the Bakken shale in North Dakota are saying West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude needs to stay above $60 a barrel for their companies to stay in the black. Those who work for producers with large acreage in the Eagleford shale play in south Texas say their companies can stay above water with oil as low as $45 to $50 a barrel.

德克薩斯州休斯敦市是美國的石油之都，在這裏最能感受到這種緊張氣氛。油價持續下滑尚未對這座城市的經濟產生重大影響，至少目前還沒有。但這裏的人們已經變得非常焦慮，特別是那些40歲以下的人，我把這個羣體稱爲“頁岩油嬰兒潮一代”。在休斯敦新興的中產階層社區East End和Midtown的酒吧和餐館裏，經常能聽到小夥子（和姑娘）們探討自己所在公司的盈虧平衡點和油價的關聯。在北達科他州巴肯擁有大片頁岩油田的採油公司的員工們認爲，西德州輕質低硫原油（WTI）價格需保持在每桶60美元以上，他們的公司才能繼續盈利。而那些在南德州Eagleford擁有大量頁岩油業務的石油公司的員工們則表示，油價下跌到不低於45-50美元時，他們的公司能安然無恙。

Both groups say that they have heard their companies are starting to walk away from some of the more “speculative” parts of their fields, which translates to a decrease in production, the first such decrease in years. This was confirmed Wednesday when the Fed’s Beige Book noted that oil and gas activity in North Dakota decreased in early November due to the rapid fall in oil prices. Nevertheless, the Fed added the outlook from “officials” in North Dakota “remained optimistic,” and that they expect oil production to continue to increase over the next two years.

這兩個羣體都表示，他們已經聽說自己的公司開始撤出油田中“投機性”較高的區域，也就是說這些公司的石油產量出現了多年來的首次下降。美聯儲（Fed）週三公佈的褐皮書印證了這一點。該報告指出，由於油價迅速下跌，11月初石油和天然氣公司在北達科他州的經營活動減少。不過，美聯儲補充道，該地區“高層”對前景“保持樂觀”，他們預計今後兩年石油產量將繼續上升。

What are these “officials,” thinking? Don’t they worry about the break-even price of oil? Sure they do, but unlike the Shale Boomers, they also probably remember drilling for oil when it traded in the single digits, which really wasn’t that long ago. For these seasoned oil men, crude at $60 a barrel still looks mighty appealing.

這些“高層”在想什麼？難道他們不擔心盈虧平衡價格嗎？當然擔心，但和“頁岩油嬰兒潮一代”不同的是，他們可能還記得油價處於個位數時開採石油的情形，而這其實並不是那麼久遠。對這些經驗豐富的石油人來說，每桶60美元的油價仍有極大的吸引力。

Doug Sheridan, the founder of EnergyPoint Research, which conducts satisfaction surveys, ratings, and reports for the energy industry, recalls when he had lunch with an oil executive of a major energy giant 10 years ago who confided in him that his firm was worried that oil prices had risen too high, too fast. “He was concerned that the high prices would attract negative attention from the press and Congress,” Sheridan told Fortune. “The funny thing was, oil prices were only around $33 a barrel.”

從事能源行業滿意度調查，評級和分析的EnergyPoint Research公司的創始人道格o謝里丹回憶說，10年前他曾和一家能源巨頭的石油業務主管共進午餐，後者向他透露，他們公司擔心油價漲得太高太快。謝里丹告訴《財富》（Fortune）雜誌：“他害怕高油價會引起媒體和國會的關注，從而產生不利影響。可笑的是，那時候油價只有33美元左右。”

The shale boom has perpetuated the notion that drilling for oil, especially in shale formations, is somehow super complicated and expensive. It really isn’t. Fracking a well involves just shooting a bunch of water and chemicals down a hole at high pressure—not exactly rocket science. The drilling technique has been around since the 1940s, and the energy industry has gotten very good at doing it over the decades. Recent advances in technology, such as horizontal drilling, have made fracking wells even easier and more efficient.

頁岩油的蓬勃發展讓人們認定石油開採，特別是頁岩油的開採特別複雜和昂貴。但實際情況真的不是這樣。石油水力壓裂技術只不過是以高壓向油井注入水和化學物質，這其實算不上尖端技術。20世紀40年代以來，鑽井技術就一直如此，幾十年來能源行業已經非常善於進行這樣的工作。水平鑽井等最近出現的技術進步則讓壓裂變得更簡單、更有效率。

But even though drilling for oil has become easier and more efficient, production costs have gone through the roof. Why? There are a few reasons for this, but the main one is the high price of oil. When oil service firms like Halliburton and Schlumberger negotiate contracts with producers, they usually take the oil price into consideration. The higher the oil price, the higher the cost for their services. This, combined with the boom in cheap credit over the last few years, has increased demand for everything related to the oil service sector—from men to material to housing. In what other industry do you know where someone without a college degree can start out making six figures for doing manual labor? You can in the oil and gas sectors, especially in places like Western North Dakota. There, McDonald’s employees make $20 an hour and rent for a modest place can top $2,000 a month.

不過，儘管石油開採變得更簡單而且效率更高，生產成本卻扶搖直上。爲什麼呢？有幾個原因，但主要原因是高油價。哈里伯頓公司（Halliburton）和斯倫貝謝公司（Schlumberger）等油田服務商和石油開採企業商洽合同時，它們通常都會考慮油價。油價越高，它們的服務費用就越高。再加上過去幾年低利貸款的激增，使得與油田服務行業有關的需求全面增長，從人員到物資，再到住房，無不如此。試問沒有大學文憑的人在哪個行業能靠體力勞動從一開始就掙到六位數呢？在石油天然氣行業就可以，特別是在北達科他州西部。在那裏，麥當勞員工每小時掙20美元，而普通住宅的月租金會超過2000美元。

But as the oil price drops, so will costs, bringing the “break-even” price down with it. Seasoned oil men know how to get this done—it involves a little Texas theater, which is sort of like bargaining at a Turkish bazaar. The producers will first clutch their hearts and tell their suppliers that they simply cannot afford to drill any more given the sharp slump in oil prices. Their suppliers will offer a slight discount on their services but the producer will say he’s “walking away.” This is where we are in the negotiating cycle.

不過，隨着油價下跌，成本也會下降，“盈虧平衡”價格也會隨之降低。經驗豐富的石油從業者知道怎樣做到這一點——他們需要演點兒戲，這有點像在土耳其市場討價還價。首先，石油公司要捂着自己的胸口告訴服務供應商，由於油價暴跌，它們再也無力承擔鑽井費用。服務供應商就會給它們很小的折扣，但石油公司會拒絕。這就是我們討價還價的慣式。

After letting the oil service firms sweat a bit (traditionally around two to four months), a producer will give their former suppliers a call, saying they are “thinking” of getting back in the game. Desperate for work, the suppliers will now be willing to renegotiate a whole new agreement based on a lower oil price. The aim of the new contract is to give producers close to the same margin they had when prices were much higher. Profits are restored and everyone is happy.

讓油田服務供應商急出點兒汗以後（通常要兩到四個月），石油公司就會和前者取得聯繫，稱自己正在“考慮”回到談判中。此時，迫切希望開展業務的服務供應商就會願意基於更低的油價重新洽談一份全新的協議。這份新合同的目的是讓石油公司的利潤率接近之前油價高得多的時候。這樣，利潤就可以恢復到以往水平，而且皆大歡喜。

This negotiation will happen across all parts of the oil and gas cost structure. So welders who were making $135,000 a year will probably see a pay cut, while the administrative staff back at headquarters will probably miss out on that fat bonus check they have come to rely on. Rig workers and engineers will see their pay and benefits slashed as well. Anyone who complains will be sent to Alaska or somewhere even worse than Western North Dakota in the winter, like Siberia (seriously). And as with any bursting bubble, asset prices will start to fall for everything from oil leases to jack-up rigs to townhouses in Houston. Oh, and that McDonald’s employee in Western North Dakota will probably need to settle for $15 an hour.

在石油和天然氣成本結構的各個部分都會出現這樣的談判。因此，年薪13.5萬美元的電焊工可能會被降薪，而公司總部的行政人員可能得不到他們所依賴的豐厚獎金，鑽井工人和工程師的工資和福利可能也會縮水。任何有怨言的人都會被“發配”到阿拉斯加，或者冬天比北達科他州西部還要難熬的地方，比如西伯利亞（我說真的）。同時，就像所有已經破裂的泡沫一樣，資產價格將全面下滑，從油田租約到自升式鑽井平臺，再到休斯頓的聯排別墅，都是如此。對了，在北達科他州西部，麥當勞員工的小時工資可能需要降到15美元。

But oil production will continue, that is, until prices reach a point at which it truly makes no sense for anyone to drill anywhere.

但石油生產將繼續進行，或者說，將持續到油價真的讓任何人都沒有理由再去開採石油。

So, what is the absolute lowest price oil can be produced for in the U.S.? Consider this—fracking last boomed in the U.S. back in the mid-1980s, when a barrel of oil fetched around $23. That is equivalent to around $50 a barrel today, when adjusted for inflation. That fracking boom went bust after prices fell to around $8 a barrel, which is worth around $18 in today’s money. With oil last week hitting $63 a barrel, it seems that prices have a lot more room to fall before things get really scary.

那麼在美國，可以支撐石油生產的最低油價是多少呢？水力壓裂技術上次在美國大行其道是20世紀80年代中期，當時油價爲每桶23美元左右。考慮通脹因素後，這相當於現在的50美元。這個繁榮期在油價跌至8美元左右時結束，按目前價格水平計算相當於大約18美元。鑑於上週油價跌至每桶63美元，看來在情況真正變得讓人害怕前，油價還有非常大的下行空間。（財富中文網）