房價下跌：恐慌還是期望？

Property prices across China, often seen as a barometer of the overall health of the economy, are once again on the front pages. But this time, a real sense of panic appears to be the main message.

Across more and more second- and third-tier cities, prices have been as much as halved in some cases amid reports of overcapacity and a collapse in demand.

But is this really the beginning of the bursting of a far bigger property bubble across China, or is it simply a reflection of a slightly hasty and badly thought out construction craze outside of China's first-tier cities?

First-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have enjoyed an unparalleled economic boom in comparison with China's numerous provincial capitals and smaller cities. It must be highlighted here that this is not just a property boom but major development of all aspects of urban infrastructure such as transportation, health and re attempting to examine this question, it is essential to present briefly the nature of China's miraculous economic emergence over the past 20 to 30 years. Of course, massive gains in prosperity have been achieved, but such has been the breakneck speed of this advancement in riches that, at this moment in time, an extremely unbalanced level of development is the result.

It is still the case that far more than 60 percent of all inbound foreign direct investment is attracted to the top-tier cities and nearby areas.

Career opportunities, especially the more lucrative international business opportunities, remain solely a first-tier city attraction. Average salaries outside first-tier cities rarely reach 50 percent of those inside.

As a result, it is hopelessly misguided and even fatuous to "lump" together one apparently cohesive Chinese property market. As most markets emerge and progress, so does the need for accurate segmentation.

It is, therefore, critical to introduce several economic and infrastructure-related segmentation variables in order to dissect China's property market effectively and assess any extent to which a "bubble" is apparent。

Property prices across China's first-tier cities have cooled in recent times, a reflection of the cooling in the Chinese economy overall. There will not be any price crash in first-tier cities, merely a cooling, followed by far more modest gains from now on.

But recent price panics in more and more of China's second- and third-tier cities don't signal the start of any bubble-bursting process generally.

Rather, they're a welcome reminder of the chasm in development levels between first-tier cities and beyond. Far too many new homes have been built outside first-tier cities, and foolish attempts have been made to piggyback on first-tier city prices when the economic opportunities and infrastructure both fall woefully short.

As a result, there may be more quite massive reductions in the prices of new homes in many second- and third-tier cities, especially those that do not benefit from relatively close geographical proximity to China's first-tier cities. There will also almost certainly be a quite substantial cut in investment into and construction of more new homes in many second- and third-tier cities.

But ... there will not be a major nationwide property crash similar to those witnessed recently in the United States and not that long ago in the United Kingdom.

First-tier city property prices will remain robust and in the more select areas of these cities, prices may even rise significantly and relentlessly, not too dissimilar to the seemingly unstoppable rise in London property prices while the rest of the UK market remains fairly flat.

All future analysis of China's property "market" should first pay sufficient attention to the presence of very different segments: currently key variables being city income and infrastructure.

Expect greater fragmentation of China's property market with smaller and smaller market segments defined by smaller and smaller geographical areas.

No need for any nationwide property price panic. But there is a need for studious segmentation, strategic thinking and more modest economic expectations.在中國，房地產價格通常被視爲經濟總體健康狀況的“晴雨表”。如今，房價再次成爲焦點。但這一次，它帶來的是真正意義上的恐慌。

有報告指出，由於產能過剩和需求崩潰，越來越多的二、三線城市房價下滑，某些房價已下跌近50%。

但這真的是預示着中國更巨大的房產泡沫開始破裂？或僅僅只是人們對於中國非一線城市建設熱潮有些倉促的多慮呢？

與中國衆多的省會城市和小城市相比，諸如北京、上海這樣的一線城市取得了空前的經濟繁榮。必須強調的是，這些一線城市所取得的不僅是房地產方面的繁榮，還伴隨着基礎設施，如交通、醫療和教育等方面的重大發展。因此，在我們審視這個問題之前，有必要對中國過去二、三十年所創造的經濟奇蹟做一個簡短的回顧。誠然，我們已經取得巨大的發展成就，但是這些飛速發展主要體現在一線城市，結果最終導致了中國目前極其不平衡的發展水平。

事實上，一線城市和附近地區吸引了超過60%的入境外商直接投資。

一線城市同樣也造就了大量的就業機會，尤其是收入頗豐的國際商業機會。非一線城市的平均工資幾乎只有一線城市平均工資的一半。

因此，將表面上緊密結合的中國房地產市場混爲一談是無可救藥的誤導，甚至是愚蠢的。隨着多數市場的出現和發展，也出現了對準確分割的需要。

因此，需要引入一些經濟和基礎設施的關鍵細分變量來對中國房地產市場進行有效剖析，並對“房地產泡沫”的明顯程度進行評估。

近年來，中國一線城市房價上漲勢頭已經回落，這也是中國整體經濟增長勢頭有所冷卻的縮影。但這僅僅只是冷卻，一線城市的房價不可能發生崩潰，並且緊隨其後的更多的是從現在開始的小幅上漲。

但最近越來越多中國二、三線城市房價下跌所引發的恐慌並不代表房地產泡沫開始破滅。

相反，這是一個積極的信號，預示着非一線城市與一線城市之間的差距在縮小。當經濟發展機會和基礎設施都嚴重短缺時，二、三線城市建房過量，諸多開發商都懷着藉助一線城市房價的愚蠢意圖。

結果是在許多二三線城市，尤其是那些遠離一線城市沒有地理優勢的地方，可能迎來更大規模的房價下跌。因此幾乎可以肯定，對於二、三線城市的投資以及新住房建設都將會銳減。

但是，全國性的房地產重大崩盤並不會上演。類似的例子可參照最近的美國以及很久以前的英國。

一線城市房價將繼續保持堅挺，並且其部分區域房價甚至還會大幅顯著地上升，這跟倫敦房價大幅上漲，而英國其餘區域房價仍相當平穩的情況極爲相似。

關於中國未來房地產“市場”的所有分析中，首先應充分關注市場中截然不同的部分：目前的關鍵變量是城市收入和基礎設施。

通過較小的地理區域劃分的較小的市場分割來看待中國房地產市場這個較大的局面。

我們無需對全國性房價下跌感到恐慌。我們需要的是對房地產市場進行專業細緻的分割、戰略思考，並對此持更溫和的經濟預期。