油價直線下跌 幾家歡樂幾家愁

Oil prices fell to their lowest level in over five years Thursday as the cartel that produces one third of the world’s output failed to agree on measures to tackle the current glut.

上週四，由於石油產量佔全球總產量1/3的石油輸出國組織（Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries，OPEC，又稱歐佩克）未能就眼下石油供應過剩的應對之策達成一致，國際油價跌至五年多來的最低位。

In what had been billed as their most important meeting in decades, ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to keep their self-imposed output ceiling at 30 million barrels a day, but promised each other they would cheat less on their agreed quotas.

在被宣傳爲歐佩克數十年來最重要的會議上，該組織成員國部長們同意，將自行設定的產量上限維持在每天3000萬桶，但互相承諾將更嚴格的遵守所商定的限額。

Such promises have rarely held in the past, and the markets reacted by driving the price of the benchmark crude futures contract down nearly 8% to below $69. Oil hasn’t been that cheap since August 2009. Prices have now fallen by over 30% since the summer, and by 13% in November alone.

過去，此類承諾往往無濟於事。市場對此的反應是，基準原油期貨合約價下跌近8％，跌破了69美元。油價降至2009年8月以來的最低位。自今年夏天以來，油價下跌超過30％，僅11月就下跌了13％。

That’s going to make a Happy Thanksgiving for drivers, who are already seeing pump prices of under $3/gallon in the U.S., as well as for airlines, logistics companies, plastics and chemicals companies, all of whom have huge outlays on fuel and oil-based feedstocks. It’s also good news for retailers, who will hope to benefit from the fact that consumers have more disposable income.

美國的車主們這下賺到了，美國的油品零售價已跌破每加侖3美元。同樣受益的，還有航空公司、物流公司、塑料製品和化工企業，上述企業在燃料或油基原料上花費巨大。油價下跌對零售商而言也是好消息，後者有望從消費者可支配收入增加中受益。

But it’s less good news for the shale oil industry, which may find at least some of its investments losing money as the oil price heads firmly lower.

但對頁岩油行業而言，這就不是什麼好消息了。隨着油價穩步下跌，頁岩油行業至少有部分投資將賠錢。

Thursday’s decision effectively sets the level of OPEC output for the whole of the first half of next year, news agencies quoted Abdalla El-Badri, OPEC’s Secretary-General, as saying. If that’s true, then any reduction in world output will likely be driven by marginal fields in the U.S.

通訊社援引歐佩克祕書長阿卜杜拉o巴德里（Abdalla El-Badri）稱，上週四的決定，實際上確定了歐佩克明年上半年的產量。 若果真如此，那全球產量減少將完全來自美國邊際油田減產。

The decision is a victory for Saudi Arabia, which can better afford to play a long game with U.S. producers than its poorer colleagues in OPEC, such as Venezuela and Iran.

此決定的贏家是沙特阿拉伯，相比委內瑞拉和伊朗等較貧困的歐佩克成員國，沙特阿拉伯更有財力與美國石油生產商打持久戰。

“It was a great decision,” Reuters quoted Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi as saying as he emerged smiling after around five hours of talks.

路透社（Reuters）稱，在結束近五小時的會談後，沙特石油部長阿里o納伊米（Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi）面帶微笑的表示：“這是個偉大的決定。”

According to the Paris-based International Energy Agency, the cartel’s 12 members are currently produced 30.66 million barrels a day in October, so even if they were completely faithful about sticking to their quotas, they still wouldn’t cut output by enough to bring it into line with global demand for their oil, which the IEA puts at 29.3 million b/d next year.

總部位於巴黎的國際能源署（International Energy Agency）稱，10月份，歐佩克12個成員國的石油日產量爲3066萬桶，因此，即便他們完全遵守自身限額，其減產仍不足以使供給降到與全球石油需求一致的水平。國際能源署認爲，明年全球石油需求爲每天2930萬桶。

Some of the OPEC ministers have made no secret of their desire to use a lower price to stop the rise in oil production from U.S. shale, which along with other “non-OPEC” sources of supply is running way ahead of demand from a world economy that has palpably slowed down this year.

歐佩克部分成員國部長已明確表示，希望用較低的油價，阻止美國頁岩油產量上升。來自美國頁岩以及其它“非歐佩克”來源的石油供應，已經遠超今年已明顯放緩的全球經濟的需求。

The United Arab Emirates’ oil minister Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui told the Financial Times Wednesday that the market would correct itself and that “there is nothing to cause us to panic.”

上週三，阿拉伯聯合酋長國（United Arab Emirates）石油部長Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui向《金融時報》（Financial Times）表示，市場會自我調整，“我們沒什麼好恐慌的”。

That wasn’t quite the view from countries that need a higher oil price to balance their budgets. The Russian ruble fell to a new all-time low on the news, with the dollar crashing through 48 rubles and the euro topping 60, both for the first time ever. The benchmark RTS stock index fell 2.1% close to a new five-year low.

不過，那些需要高油價來平衡政府預算的國家可不這麼看。歐佩克的決定一出，俄羅斯盧布應聲跌至歷史新低，美元兌盧布首次跌破1:48，而歐元兌盧布更是首次跌破1:60。俄羅斯基準RTS股指下跌近2.1％，幾乎創下五年來的新低。

Russia needs an oil price over $100/bbl to balance its budget. But the news agency Interfax quoted Maxim Oreshkin, a senior finance ministry official, as saying that even a forecast of $80 was “moderately optimistic” for the next years, in view of OPEC’s decision.

俄羅斯要平衡自身預算，需要石油價格超過每桶100美元。但俄羅斯Interfax通訊社稱，俄財政部高級官員馬克西姆o歐雷希金表示，鑑於歐佩克的決定，明年油價每桶80美元的預測都屬“比較樂觀”。（財富中文網）