國際油價下跌考驗加拿大油砂產業

OTTAWA, Ontario — For as long as 400-ton dump trucks have been rumbling around the open pit mines of Canada’s oil sands, crews from Kal Tire have been on hand to replace and repair their $70,000, 13-foot diameter tires.

加拿大渥太華——自從400噸的自卸卡車開始在加拿大露天油砂礦的礦坑周圍轟鳴行駛，卡爾輪胎公司(Kal Tire)就一直在爲這些汽車更換和維護價值7萬美元、直徑13英尺（約3.9米）的輪胎。

But the relationship, going back over a decade, didn’t spare the company when oil prices began plummeting.

然而油價開始大幅下跌時，這種延續10年的良好關係並沒有讓這家公司省去麻煩。

Dan Allan, the senior vice president of Kal’s mining tire unit, said that customers immediately began looking for price concessions. Others asked Kal to withdraw personnel from some sites or swiftly canceled plans to add more maintenance crews.

卡爾輪胎礦業輪胎部門的高級副總裁丹·艾倫(Dan Allan)說，他的客戶們馬上就開始尋求價格優惠。另一些公司則要求卡爾從一些礦場撤出人員，或者迅速取消了增加養護人員的計劃。

“We’re sort of caught at the sharp end of the spear,” said Mr. Allan, who is now looking to relocate some employees. “It’s really difficult.”

“我們陷入了最麻煩的境地，”艾倫說。“真的很棘手。”他正在考慮轉移部分員工。

Canada’s oil sands — and the 167 billion barrels of reserves — prompted an unprecedented expansion over the last decade. But the roughly $155 billion spending spree left the industry with unusually high production costs.

加拿大的油砂儲量有1670億桶，在過去10年，加拿大油砂產業出現了前所未有的擴張。不過約1550億美元（約合9700億元人民幣）的開支狂潮，卻讓這個產業有了異常高的生產成本。

Now, oil sands operators are scrambling to limit the damage, as crude prices hover near seven-year lows.

現在，由於原油價格徘徊在七年以來的最低水平，油砂開採企業正在手忙腳亂地控制損失。

Suncor, the largest oil sands operator, announced plans to eliminate about 1,000 contract jobs. Shell Canada said it would cut its oil sands work force by about 10 percent. Cenovus Energy said that it would reduce investment spending by 27 percent, and set aside plans for two oil sands project expansions.

最大的油砂企業森科能源(Suncor)宣佈，計劃裁減1000個外包崗位。殼牌加拿大公司(Shell Canada)表示，將會裁減大約10%的油砂員工。西諾沃斯能源(Cenovus Energy)表示，將會削減27%的投資開支，並擱置擴建兩個油砂項目的計劃。

A camp for workers in Northern Alberta, the heart of the oil sands, was permanently closed and another was temporarily shut. Several proposed oil sands projects and expansions are under review or have been deferred.

在油砂儲量的核心艾伯塔省北部，一座容納工人住宿的營地被永久關閉，另一座則被臨時關閉。若干個修建或擴建油砂項目的計劃正在接受重新審議，或已被擱置。

The cuts, though, won’t necessarily translate into lower production. Oil sands production is expected to increase by 25 percent, to 4.8 million barrels a day, according to January estimates by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, partly because of new projects moving into production.

不過，削減投資開支未必會導致產量下滑。加拿大石油生產商協會(Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers)今年1月估計，油砂產量還會提高25%，達到每日480萬桶，部分原因在於一些新項目即將投產。

The enormous projects are just too difficult to switch off, and the companies must keep pumping crude to cover the sizable debt on their multibillion-dollar investments. They also don’t want to cede market share to producers in other countries.

大型的項目要想關閉沒那麼容易，而且這些企業必須要一直生產，才能償還投資時賬目上產生的幾十億美元債務。此外，它們也不想將市場份額讓給其他國家的生產商。

Imperial Oil, which is controlled by Exxon Mobil, said on Monday that fourth-quarter earnings dropped by 36 percent. Even so, the company plans to start production at two new oil sands projects this year.

由埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)控股的帝國石油公司(Imperial Oil)週一表示，該公司四季度營收下降了36%。儘管如此，這家公司今年還是計劃讓兩座新的油砂項目投入生產。

“It really makes no economic sense to bring down production at this point because most of the costs are sunk,” said Stewart Glickman, an energy equity analyst with S&P Capital IQ Equity.

“現在就減產在經濟上實在沒有意義，因爲大部分成本已是沉沒成本，”標普資本智商股權投資(S&P Capital IQ Equity)的能源產業分析師斯圖爾特·格里克曼(Stewart Glickman)表示。

A frequently cited study prepared for the United States State Department’s review of the Keystone XL pipeline estimated that many oil sands projects become unprofitable at prices of $65 to $75 a barrel. Prices are now below $50.

一份供美國國務院(State Department)審議的關於Keystone XL管線的報告受到了廣泛的引用。報告中稱，許多油砂項目需要價格在65美元至75美元一桶才能賺錢。目前價格低於50美元。

But the State Department review, which was released in January 2014, doesn’t necessarily account for the changing environment.

不過，國務院的審議報告是在2014年1月發佈的，並不一定考慮到了商業環境的變化。

Andrew Leach, an economist and professor of energy policy at the University of Alberta, said that the American figure inflated the break-even point by including a 12 percent profit margin for oil producers. The drop in the Canadian dollar has also provided an added cushion for domestic oil companies that are paid for their products in the now more valuable American currency.

艾伯塔大學(University of Alberta)經濟學家，研究能源政策的教授安德魯·裏奇(Andrew Leach)說，美國的數據高估了收支平衡點，因爲其中計入了石油生產商12%的利潤率。而且加拿大元的貶值也爲加拿大國內的石油企業提供了另一層緩衝，因爲這些企業的產品是以如今更具價值的美元支付的。

When those factors are combined, Mr. Leach said, “you’re looking at a reduction of the growth rate at current prices, a stall.” He estimates that the production cost for synthetic crude from the major open pit mine projects is $31 to $39 a barrel, at current exchange rates. He added, though, that a few projects with production problems had much higher costs.

綜合這些因素，裏奇說道，“我們就在當前的價位看到了增速的降低，或者說停滯。”他估計，按當前的匯率計算，從大型的露天礦坑生產合成原油的成本爲每桶31至39美元。不過他也說，一些有生產問題的項目中，成本可能會高出很多。

The industry thinking, he said, is, “I’m willing to burn through cash on this project because in the long term it will be worth it.”

他說，油砂產業的思路是，“我願意在這個項目上燒錢挺過去，因爲長遠來看是值得的。”

As a result, most oil sands operators are reviewing future projects rather than considering production cuts or stopping projects already under construction. They are also looking to cut costs as swiftly as possible.

因此，多數油砂企業都在審視未來的項目，而不是考慮減產，或終止已經投入建設的項目。它們也在尋求儘可能快地削減成本。

“Nobody in the oil industry feels very secure,” said Ken Smith, president of the Unifor union local that represents about 3,600 Suncor employees who operate the giant dump trucks and excavators. “We’re kind of at the mercy of these big players like the Saudis and Russia.”

“在石油產業裏，誰都不會很有安全感，”Unifor工會在本地的負責人肯·史密斯(Ken Smith)表示。“我們基本上任由沙特和俄羅斯這樣的大角色擺佈。”Unifor工會在這裏代表着森科能源的3600名員工，他們負責操作巨大的自卸卡車和挖掘機。

Mr. Smith said he believed that none of Suncor’s 1,000 layoffs would involve his members. Sneh Seetal, a spokeswoman for Suncor, said the company had yet to determine the specifics, but noted that it would involve a mix of contract positions and employees spread across the company’s domestic operations, which include refining and gasoline retailing.

史密斯表示，他認爲森科能源解僱的1000名員工，不會涉及自己工會的成員。森科能源發言人斯奈·西塔爾(Sneh Seetal)表示，該公司尚未敲定具體細節，不過提到會涉及該公司在加拿大全國的分支，包括煉油和汽油零售，既有外包崗位也有自身的僱員。

Not everyone is upset or worried about the slowdown in the oil sands. Melissa Blake, the mayor of the regional municipality of Wood Buffalo, which includes Fort McMurray and most of the major oil sands sites, said she welcomed it. After trying to keep up with a population increase of more than 125 percent since 2000, Ms. Blake said, Fort McMurray needs a break.

並不是所有人都對油砂產業的減速感到沮喪或擔憂。伍德布法羅(Wood Buffalo)市長梅麗莎·布萊克(Melissa Blake)表示，她歡迎這種趨勢。伍德布法羅市下轄麥克默裏堡(Fort McMurray)，以及其他許多大型油砂開採地。布萊克說，自從2000年以來，麥克默裏堡的人口已經增加了125%以上，這個步伐很難跟上，麥克默裏堡需要喘口氣。

“The past few years have been just been catching up with the growth we’ve had,” the mayor said. “There’s a bit of an advantage from having a less robust industry.”

“過去幾年一直在追趕增長的步伐，”市長說。“產業發展沒那麼強勁也算是件好事。”

A break, Ms. Blake, said should allow the community’s infrastructure to finally catch up with its growth.

布萊克說，只有先喘口氣，這個社區的基礎設施才能最終趕上增長的程度。

Ms. Blake said she had seen no obvious signs of a slowdown around town, like emptier stores and restaurants. But that, she said, is probably because most of the 79,000 full-time residents of Fort McMurray are in less vulnerable jobs. That’s probably not the case, she acknowledged, for about 39,000 people who fly in to work on oil sands projects but make their homes elsewhere, often on the other side of Canada.

布萊克表示，她在城市各處沒有觀察到發展放緩的明顯跡象，如店鋪或餐館變得冷清。不過她說，原因或許是麥克默裏堡的7.9萬名常住居民從事的崗位沒那麼容易受到衝擊。不過她承認，對於那些飛到這裏，在油砂項目工作，但家在其他地方的3.9萬人，工作崗位或許就沒那麼安全。這些人的家通常在加拿大的另一邊。

But if the slump in prices proves to be sustained, Ms. Blake acknowledged that few would escape its effects.

不過布萊克表示，如果發現價格下跌的趨勢維持下去，就不會有什麼人能擺脫它的影響。

“There’s going to have to be a real battening down of the hatches,” she said.

“那樣的話就需要爲迎接風浪真正做好準備，”她說。