雙十一購物浪潮並不能加快經濟增長

The online shopping sale on Nov 11 has been put in the spotlight with analysts keen to find solid evidence of improving consumer demand that might bolster the slowing economy.

最近，11月11日網購十分火爆。分析師們十分希望能夠找出證據，證明消費者需求上漲能夠帶動緩慢增長的經濟。

Unfortunately, the prospering e-commerce industry can hardly solve the problems facing the economy on its own.

不幸的是，電商行業解決經濟問題的方法似乎並不可行。

China's e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Ltd launched the online Singles' Day sale in 2009. Since then, the date, made up of four lonely "ones", has become the world's biggest online shopping event.

中國電商巨人阿里巴巴集團有限公司在2009年時發起了光棍節大促銷。該節日（11月11日）由四個“1”組成，現已成爲網上購物的盛大節日。

The expectations are this year will be another bonanza and set a new sales record, which has ignited hopes that online consumption can at least partially offset the downward pressure on the economy from falling investment and exports.

人們期待今年的訂單數額將會刷新記錄。或許在線消費可以部分抵消投資和出口下跌的經濟下滑走勢。

A closer look at the event, however, shows such hopes are unrealistic.

然而，如果我們仔細考慮一下這件事，這種希望是不現實的。

The soaring sales on Singles' Day are actually a "sales overdraft" that results from the sudden release of consumers' pent up demand. Many people opt not to make planned purchases days or months ahead of Nov 11 hoping to benefit from the promotional discounts offered that day, and sales generally fall sharply after the event.

光棍節的銷量劇增其實是“銷量透支”，消費者們爲隱性需求買單。有些人在雙十一之前的幾天甚至幾個月都不購物，只爲了在11月11日當天能夠在打折中獲得一些優惠。而且在節日過後，銷量也會下滑。

There is yet no evidence to support the notion that the contrived shopping spree provides a real boost to the country's overall annual consumption.

並且，並沒有證據表明這種反常的消費抑制現象會讓中國全年的消費水平上升。

In reality, for many brands it represents a marketing opportunity rather than a means to significantly increase their annual sales. Some dishonest online retailers even use tricks to avoid offering real discounts in a bid to deceive buyers into thinking they are getting a bargain. For example, they may raise prices in the run-up to Singles' Day before announcing "big discounts" for Nov 11.

實際上，很多商家把這看做一種營銷手段，而非實際增加銷量。有些不誠實的網上零售商還會欺騙消費者，提供虛假折扣，讓消費者誤以爲自己以優惠價購買。例如，他們在光棍節之前把價格擡上去，然後在當天打着“打折促銷的”幌子。

However, consumers are becoming more rational and avoiding the impetuous spending that has characterized previous one-day sales specials as they realize such events are only a gimmick to get them to part with their money.

然而，消費者們越來越理性，越來越能避免衝動消費。他們認爲這種只有一天的打折促銷其實只是一種噱頭，目的是爲了讓他們花錢而已。

Actually, growth in China's consumer demand has been quite stable in recent years. And with the overall economy weakening, the growth in consumption has been trending down, which is in line with the overall economic trend.

實際上，最近幾年中國消費者的需求已經很穩定了。隨着經濟低迷，消費漲勢也有所減緩，同經濟走勢保持一致。

Among the three major factors driving a country's economic growth - domestic consumption, investment and exports, domestic consumption is the most stable. And considering the weak economy, which affects people's confidence in spending, there will hardly be any major improvement in consumer demand despite the hurly-burly of the Nov 11 shopping event.

拉動中國經濟增長的三大主要力量——內需、投資和出口之中，消費水平是最穩定的。考慮到經濟低迷的現狀會影響到居民消費，儘管雙十一當天有購買活動，也並不會出現消費者需求大幅度增長的情況。

There is no denying that the convenience of online shopping can stimulate people's desire to buy, but at the same time it squeezes traditional consumer demand, partly offsetting its positive role in economic growth.

誠然，在線購買十分方便，的確會促使消費者們的購買慾。但是同時，它也會使傳統購買需求被壓縮，在一定程度上抵消了電商使經濟增長的作用。

For a developing country such as China, the biggest hurdle preventing fast consumption growth is consumer concern about the future because of the country's immature social security network. Many people are worried about their post-retirement life and are very cautious in making purchasing decisions.

例如像中國一樣的發展中國家，阻撓經濟快速發展的本質在於因爲國家沒有成熟的社保體系，消費者們對未來感到擔憂。很多人擔心他們退休以後的生活，所以在買東西的時候也會特別謹慎。

Policymakers need to accelerate their pace in improving the social security network and raise people's incomes to stabilize people's expectations for the future and encourage them to spend.

政策制定者需要加快提高社保體系步伐，提高收入，使人們對未來有安全感，鼓勵其消費。

Yet the top priority at the moment is to stabilize the economy. China's infrastructure investment has been growing exceptionally fast in recent months to offset the effect of the falling exports. Against that backdrop, many people have pinned their hopes on faster consumption growth to provide a more sustainable driver of the country's economy.

然而，現在的首要任務還是要使經濟穩定。中國的基礎設施投資在最近幾個月發展很快，抵消了出口下滑的缺口。對於經濟下滑，許多人都寄希望於消費快速增長，爲經濟提供動力。

Indeed, retail sales rose steadily from July to September - from 10.5 percent to 10.9 percent year-on-year, and they are expected to rise further thanks to the Nov 11 event. Still, such small improvements will not suffice to anchor the economy and the Nov 11 sales boom is but a drop in the bucket of required spending.

誠然，零售商銷量從7月的10.5%上漲到了9月的10.9%，還可能會在雙十一的時候繼續上漲。但是，這樣的小幅度增長並不會會影響經濟走勢，雙十一的銷量只是消費的九牛一毛而已。