中金股票便宜嗎 Making it not faking it
In China, fakery knows few limits — as Goldman Sachs has found out. Wary of this, perhaps, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) lists brand appropriation as one of near 50 risks in its initial public offering prospectus. It also mentions staff misconduct — more pertinent, perhaps, since it is investigating one of its Hong Kong employees for irregular dealing in client accounts.
在中國，正如高盛(Goldman Sachs)發現的那樣，造假行爲肆無忌憚。或許是意識到了這一點，中國國際金融股份有限公司（CICC，簡稱：中金公司）在其招股書上將品牌遭盜用列爲近50項風險之一。它還提到了員工行爲不軌的風險，或許這是項更切實的風險，因爲它正在調查自己的一名香港員工違規處理客戶賬戶的問題。
The Chinese investment bank hopes to raise as much as $933m, nine-tenths of which will be new shares. Its market capitalisation will be about $3bn. As with many recent Hong Kong deals, this one is already half sold: $465m will be taken up by 10 investors, including parents of Hong Kong-listed China Mobile and Baosteel Group, as well as subsidiaries of Hong Kong-listed Value Partners and the US’s Prudential.
這家中國投行希望在此次招股中籌集至多9.33億美元資金，其中九成將通過新發股份籌集。該公司市值將大約爲30億美元。與最近香港的許多首次公開發行(IPO)一樣，其中一半股份已被認購：4.65億美元的股份將由10個投資者購得，這些投資者包括在香港上市的中國移動(China Mobile)與寶鋼集團(Baosteel Group)的母公司，以及在香港上市的惠理(Value Partners)和美國保德信(Prudential)的子公司。
The rest is likely to attract interest. CICC has been growing quickly; profits grew nearly fourfold between 2012 and 2014. At the same time, return on equity nearly trebled, to 14 per cent; by June 2015 it had jumped higher yet, to 24 per cent. And while the stock is no steal at 18 times 2014 earnings, on annualised first half 2015 earnings that drops to 9 times (although bear in mind that investment bank earnings are rarely smooth through the year). Goldman Sachs is on just 10 times — if for weaker growth and returns.
投資者很可能會對剩餘的股份感興趣。中金公司發展迅速；利潤在2012年至2014年間增長了近三倍。同期，股本回報率增長近兩倍至14%。到2015年6月，股本回報率進一步增長至24%。儘管按2014年的利潤計算，中金公司的市盈率爲18倍，並不便宜，但按2015年上半年的年化利潤計算，市盈率已降至9倍（不過要記住，投行的利潤在一年裏很少是均勻分佈的）。高盛的市盈率剛好10倍，儘管它的增長和回報更爲疲弱。
There are, however, real risks hanging over CICC, which may make that cheap-looking price tag illusory. China’s capital markets are opening up. International players are keen to get in, despite reservations about the regulatory environment and the slowing economy. Domestic players are numerous, too, all with smallish market share. As a result, CICC says that commission income has been dropping, notably in equity trading, even as activity has picked up. Regulators’ tendency to stop and start IPOs, as well as meddle in the markets, means no revenue stream is secure.
然而，中金公司面臨切實的風險，可能會讓看上去的便宜成爲一種錯覺。中國資本市場正在開放。國際投資者渴望進入其中，儘管對其監管環境和放緩的經濟增長持保留態度。中國國內的投行也爲數不少，市場份額全都不大。結果是，中金公司表示，儘管交易活動步伐加快，但佣金收入一直在下降，尤其是在股票交易領域。監管機構喜歡一會兒暫停IPO一會兒重啓，還喜歡對市場進行干預，這意味着很難保證穩定的收入流。
Cheap goods are tempting. But false economies cost more later.
廉價商品很吸引人，但不當的節儉會讓你在隨後破費更多。
