中國經濟減速後消費概念轉變
Until recently, the easiest way to make money in China was selling discretionary goods that were not discreet. Aspirational brands from Burberry to Jaguar Land Rover profited nicely from consumerism unleashed.
直到不久前，在中國最輕鬆的賺錢方式還是銷售奢華的非必需品(discretionary goods)。從博柏利(Burberry)到捷豹路虎(Jaguar Land Rover)，那些人們渴望擁有的品牌從中國興起的消費主義中獲利豐厚。
That era is over, and many foreign investors who once made bold bets on Chinese baubles are cowering before a stock market crash and a wobbly economy. But the Chinese consumer has not stopped spending; he or she is spending differently. Retail sales growth for July was up one-tenth from a year earlier. A significant slowdown from the 23 per cent pace reached during the 2008 stimulus, but as buyers start to differentiate between goods there will be opportunities to outgrow the market. Those frightened by China’s current meltdown — everyone, that is — will look to defensive consumer staples.
現在這個時代已經結束，許多曾經大膽押注中國奢侈品市場的外國投資者在股市暴跌和經濟不穩面前退縮了。但中國消費者並未停止消費；只不過是他們花錢的方式有所不同了。7月零售銷售同比增長10%。這遠低於2008年刺激方案出臺期間23%的增幅，但隨着消費者開始注重商品之間的差別，有些品牌的增長將超過整體市場。那些被中國當前嚴峻局面嚇到的人（也就是所有人）將考慮防禦性的必需消費品領域。
A recent report from consultants Bain and Kantar Worldwide argues that China’s shoppers will pay up for quality when choosing everyday items. Foreign brands have been winning in some premium segments. As the Chinese trade up, beer makers such as Budweiser and Heineken have taken share from local producers. Last year, domestic market leader China Resources Enterprise’s beer turnover rose by 5 per cent, but profit from the division declined by nearly one-fifth as competition forced more promotional activities. Still, in recent interim results CRE’s average selling price also benefited from the shift towards premium products.
諮詢公司貝恩(Bain)和Kantar Worldwide最近在一篇報告中指出，中國消費者在選購日常用品時願意爲優質商品多付費。在一些高端市場，外國品牌一直佔優勢。隨着中國人青睞高端產品，百威(Budweiser)和喜力(Heineken)等啤酒製造商奪走了本土生產商的一些市場份額。去年，本土領軍品牌華潤創業(China Resources Enterprise)的啤酒業務收入增長5%，但由於競爭加劇，該公司不得不推出更多促銷活動，使得其利潤下降近五分之一。不過，在最近發佈的中期業績報告中，華潤的平均售價也因轉向高端產品而受益。
In most product categories, however, the gains have skewed far more clearly to domestic brands. This is due in large part to their presence in lower-tier cities, where retail growth has been strongest and locals have a distribution advantage. Bernstein Research points out that domestic leader in sanitary napkins, Hengan, fits this mould. At 19 times forward earnings for low-teens growth, it is not cheap. At the moment, however, defensiveness seems worth paying for.
然而，在大多數產品種類中，國內品牌的優勢明顯大得多。這在很大程度上得益於它們在一線以外城市的佈局，這些城市的零售增長最爲強勁，而且本土企業在分銷方面有優勢。伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)指出，本土衛生巾領軍品牌恆安集團(Hengan)就屬於這種類型。按10%至15%之間的盈利增長計算，恆安的預期市盈率達到19倍，這並不便宜。然而，就目前而言，選擇防禦性投資目標似乎是值得的。
