中國人消費習慣發生深遠變化
A gentle moderation in China’s headline retail spending growth conceals multiple upheavals beneath the surface. Tastes and shopping habits are in flux as consumers rein in purchases of luxury items overseas, become more discerning at home and prioritise spending on their health, families and experiences, recent studies show.
中國整體零售消費增長的溫和放緩，掩蓋了表面之下的多重動盪。近期幾項研究顯示，品味和購物習慣正在變化，消費者在海外收斂了奢侈品購買，在國內變得更加挑剔，同時對自己的健康、家庭和體驗優先安排支出。
Overall growth in discretionary spending was likely to continue moderating in March, according to a survey by the FTConfidential Research unit at the Financial Times. This would follow a 10.2 per cent year-on-year growth in retail sales in the first two months of the year, down from a full-year 10.7 per cent in 2015 and 12 per cent in 2014.
英國《金融時報》旗下“投資參考”(FT Confidential Research)的一項調查顯示，可自由支配支出的總體增長很可能在3月份繼續放緩。此前，今年頭兩個月零售銷售同比增長10.2%，低於10.7%的2015年全年增幅和12%的2014年增幅。
In terms of purchasing habits, a significant change is taking place among the hordes of free-spending outbound Chinese tourists, who said they were less likely than previously to buy big-ticket items such as luxury handbags, jewellery and watches while travelling abroad, according to an FTCR survey of 1,318 overseas travellers.
就購買習慣而言，花錢闊綽的中國出境遊客人羣正出現一個顯著變化。根據FT投資參考對1318名出境遊客進行的調查，他們表示，相比以往，他們不那麼可能在境外旅遊期間購買昂貴物品，如名貴手袋、珠寶和名錶。
In contrast, spending on cosmetics, clothes, shoes, electronics and souvenirs held up or increased relative to the results of the same survey conducted in 2015. The World Travel and Tourism Council, an industry body, estimated last week that Chinese tourists spent $215bn outside mainland China in 2015, a 53 per cent rise from $140bn in 2014.
相比之下，相對於2015年同一項調查的結果，人們在化妝品、服裝、鞋子、電子產品和紀念品上的支出得到保持，甚至有所增加。行業組織——世界旅遊及旅行理事會(WTTC)上週估計，2015年中國遊客總計在境外支出2150億美元，相比2014年的1400億美元增長53%。
Key reasons cited for the slide in big-ticket luxury purchases outside China were the easing prices of similar goods at home and the increasing volume of cross-border online shopping, FTCR said.
據FT投資參考介紹，對於減少在境外購買昂貴奢侈物品，人們提到的主要原因是同類商品在國內價格下降，以及跨境網上購物數量不斷增加。
Mintel, a research firm, estimates that cross-border online shopping grew at a compound annual growth rate of 63 per cent between 2010 and 2015. Total online cross-border shopping is forecast to rise to $222bn by 2020, up from $97.3bn last year, Mintel forecasts, accounting for 17 per cent of the $1.3tn in Chinese online sales expected in 2020.
研究公司英敏特(Mintel)估計，2010年至2015年期間跨境網上購物的年複合增長率達到63%。英敏特預測，到2020年網上跨境購物總額將增至2220億美元（去年爲973億美元），佔2020年中國預計將達到的1.3萬億美元的網上銷售總額的17%。
The trend to import at the click of a mouse is reinforced by a clear tendency among Chinese consumers to upgrade to premium products. McKinsey, the research firm, found strong motivations to upgrade quality and brand in the cosmetics, spirits, dairy milk, hair care, rice, fresh produce, beer and other sectors (see chart).
強化這種“海淘”趨勢的一個現象是，中國消費者出現了向高端產品升級的明顯傾向。研究公司麥肯錫(McKinsey)發現，人們在化妝品、烈酒、牛奶及奶製品、護髮、大米、生鮮、啤酒等品類上表現出升級質量和品牌的強大動力（見圖表）。
This trend was echoed in a growing aversion toward products seen as less healthy or potentially harmful, according to the McKinsey survey, which polled 10,000 consumers in 44 cities in late 2015. Carbonated soft drinks, chewing gum, ice cream and western fast food all slipped in popularity compared with a similar survey in 2012, McKinsey found (see chart).
麥肯錫在2015年末對44個城市1萬消費者進行的調查顯示，上述趨勢的反面是，中國消費者對那些被視爲不太健康、甚至潛在有害的產品日趨敬而遠之。麥肯錫發現，與2012年進行的類似調查相比，碳酸飲料、口香糖、冰淇淋和西式快餐的人氣均出現下滑（見圖表）。
Surging sales in China of Momchilovtsi, a Bright Dairy yoghurt brand that uses bacteria from a Bulgarian village that is said to bestow long life, encapsulates the shift toward healthy eating, as do the high prices for speciality teas and robust demand for Thai jasmine rice.
光明乳業(Bright Dairy)旗下采用來自保加利亞一個長壽村的乳酸菌的酸奶品牌“莫斯利安”(Momchilovtsi)銷售飆漲，以及特種茶的高價位和泰國茉莉香米的強勁需求，都突顯了這種轉向健康飲食的趨勢。
However, when the Chinese find brands that they are satisfied with, they appear more likely to stick with them, according to the McKinsey survey. The number of consumers willing to switch to a brand outside their “short list” has dropped. In apparel, for example, the number of consumers willing to consider a brand outside their usual consideration fell from 40 per cent in 2011 to just below 30 per cent in 2015 (see chart).
不過，麥肯錫的調查也發現，當中國人找到自己滿意的品牌後，他們似乎更有可能忠於這些品牌。願意換用一種自己“選擇名單”以外的品牌的消費者數量下降。以服裝爲例，願意考慮自己通常考慮範圍外的品牌的消費者已從2011年的40%降至2015年的略低於30%（見圖表）。
Increasingly, Chinese people look for memorable experiences rather than products, with cinema, dining, spa visits and travel all posting a robust following. Wang Yang, chief operating officer of Zanadu, an online travel agency specialising in overseas travel, told FTCR: “Our clients go to the opera in Italy, watch the Northern Lights in Scandinavia and dine at Michelin-starred restaurants in Paris.”
越來越多的中國人尋找難以忘懷的體驗，而不是產品，影院、餐飲、水療和旅遊都迎來旺盛需求。專業做出境遊的在線旅行社贊那度(Zanadu)的首席運營官王洋告訴FT投資參考：“我們的客戶去意大利觀看歌劇，去北歐領略北極光，在巴黎的米其林星級餐廳用餐。”
