人民幣匯率將出現更多雙向波動

China’s central bank has warned investors to expect more “two-way volatility” in renminbi trading when foreign exchange markets reopen on Monday, less than a week after a 2 per cent downward “adjustment” sparked a week of roller-coaster trading for the currency.

中國央行警告投資者稱，外匯市場週一開盤時預計人民幣匯率將出現更多“雙向波動”。不到一週前，央行將人民幣匯率向下“調整”2%，引發一週的人民幣匯率過山車行情。

In a statement issued on Sunday, Ma Jun, chief economist at the People’s Bank of China, said the Chinese government had “no intention or need to participate in a ‘currency war’”.

在週日發表的一份聲明中，中國央行首席經濟學家馬駿稱，“中國沒有意圖和需要來參與‘匯率戰’”。

On August 11 the PBoC shocked global markets by lowering the renminbi’s daily dollar “reference rate” 1.9 per cent in what it termed a “one-off depreciation”.

8月11日，中國央行把人民幣兌美元匯率中間價下調了1.9%，並稱之爲“一次性校正”，此舉震驚了全球市場。

The central bank said it would set the daily reference rate nearer to the renminbi’s previous market close in an effort to make the mechanism more market-driven — a goal of governor Zhou Xiaochuan as he seeks to earn overseas acceptance of China’s “redback” as an international reserve currency.

中國央行表示，將使匯率中間價更接前一日收盤價，以便在更大程度上讓市場力量決定匯率——這是中國央行行長周小川希望實現的一個目標，目的是讓海外接受人民幣作爲一種國際儲備貨幣。

Previously the central bank had exercised wide discretion in setting the reference rate, allowing the renminbi to creep up gradually against the dollar in recent years.

此前中國央行在設定匯率中間價時行使了很大的自由裁量權，近年來允許人民幣兌美元緩慢升值。

The PBoC’s move sparked three days of steep falls against the dollar. This invited speculation that the government wanted to devalue the renminbi to revive a slowing economy, even if doing so sparked a renewed round of “currency wars” by encouraging other countries to follow suit.

中國央行的舉動引發了人民幣兌美元匯率連續3天的大幅下跌。這令外界猜測，中國政府想要通過貶值來重振正在放緩的經濟，即便這麼做會鼓勵其他國家跟着做，引發新一輪“匯率戰”。

In response the central bank intervened to pare back some of the renminbi’s losses against the dollar and convened an impromptu press conference by deputy governor Yi Gang on August 13 to warn markets that a large-scale devaluation was not in the offing.

作爲迴應，中國央行進行了干預，部分收復了人民幣兌美元匯率的失地，由央行副行長易綱在8月13日臨時召集了一場記者會，警告市場稱，人民幣不會大規模貶值。

Mr Ma said, in statement issued just hours ahead of the press conference, the PBoC was “fully capable of stabilising the market exchange rate” thanks to China’s $3.7tn foreign exchange stockpile.

就在記者會召開幾小時之前，馬駿在一份聲明中稱，由於中國擁有3.7萬億美元外匯儲備，中國央行“完全有能力穩定市場匯率”。

Having talked the renminbi down — and then back up — against the dollar last week, Mr Ma’s statement on Sunday appeared to warn investors not to expect further signalling from the central bank. The PBoC would intervene only in “exceptional circumstances” to counteract “excessive volatility”, he said.

上週先是表態壓低人民幣兌美元匯率、然後又表態推高人民幣兌美元匯率之後，馬駿在週日的表態似乎是在警告投資者，不要預期中國央行發出更多信號。他說，只有在“特殊情況”下，中國央行纔會進行干預，以消除人民幣匯率的“過度偏離基本面的短期波動”。

Ma Jun, chief economist at the People’s Bank of China, said the Chinese government had “no intention or need to participate in a ‘currency war’” week’s moves were aimed in part at restoring the international credibility of China’s financial reform programme, which was badly dented by an initially clumsy effort last month to arrest steep falls on its stock markets.

身爲央行首席經濟學家的馬駿表示，“中國沒有意圖和需要來參與‘匯率戰’”。央行上週舉動的部分目的在於恢復中國金融改革在國際上的可信度，上月官方在遏止股市大幅下跌過程中最初的笨拙手法嚴重損害了這一可信度。

On Friday the International Monetary Fund welcomed the PBoC’s adjustments to the reference rate mechanism.

上週五，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)對中國央行調整匯率中間價形成機制表示了歡迎。

Also on Friday China’s security regulator indicated that it was prepared to stabilise the stock markets “for a number of years” through a state-backed fund. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has organised a so-called “national team” of state-owned brokers and fund managers, which have pledged not to sell shares until the Shanghai Composite index returns to 4,500 points.

同樣在上週五，中國的證券監管機構表示，準備通過一個國家出資的基金，在“幾年之內”穩定股市。中國證監會(CSRC)組織了由國有券商和基金管理公司組成的所謂“國家隊”，承諾在上證綜指(Shanghai Composite index)重回4500點之前不減持。