中國股災會殃及蘋果 Apple in China core market
Is Apple recession-proof? After it launched the iPhone in 2007 sales soared for years, unaffected by the global financial crisis. But the recent market panic in China has spooked Apple shareholders. Last week the share price seemed to be moving in tango with the gyrations of the Shanghai stock market.
蘋果(Apple)能抵禦衰退的衝擊？2007年推出iPhone之後，多年來蘋果的銷售急劇增長，沒有受到全球金融危機的影響。然而，中國近期的市場恐慌卻嚇到了蘋果的股東。上週，蘋果的股價似乎在隨着上海股市一同震盪。China is Apple’s most important market. Among US companies, Apple is one of the most exposed to China. More than half of Apple’s growth and 30 per cent of sales came from China in the latest quarter. The Apple Watch, released in April, has certain editions aimed squarely at Chinese consumers (yellow gold with auspicious red leather band, yours for $17,000).
中國是蘋果公司最重要的市場。在美國企業中，蘋果是最依賴中國市場的企業之一。在最近一個季度中，蘋果一半以上的增長和30%的銷售額來自中國。今年4月發佈的Apple Watch，有幾款是專門針對中國消費者的（比如配有象徵吉祥的紅色皮製錶帶的黃金版，掏出1.7萬美元就歸你了）。In the near term, Chinese stock market panic will not translate into missed sales forecasts. Results for the quarter ending on June 28, to be announced next week, will not include the most jittery weeks. In the longer term Chinese consumer sentiment may see an impact. Apple’s core demographic, middle- and upper-class consumers, are those most likely to be hit by the market meltdown.
在近期內，中國股市的恐慌不會導致蘋果無法實現銷售預期。蘋果將於下週公佈截止6月28日這一季度的財報，該財報不會涵蓋中國股市最緊張的幾周。在較長的時期內，或許可以看出中國消費者的情緒受到了一些影響。蘋果的核心顧客是中、上階層的消費者，這些人最有可能受到股市暴跌的衝擊。
Apple expects growth to continue; the company has reportedly ordered a record number of units of the new version of the iPhone 6, due for release this year. Analysts anticipate growth too. Credit Suisse just raised earnings estimates, citing strong iPhone sales and Asian demand. With expectations running high, the market would be unpleasantly surprised if delivery were to fall short.
蘋果預計業績會繼續增長。據報道，對於將在今年發佈的新版iPhone 6，蘋果向供應商所下的訂單量刷新了紀錄。分析師也預計蘋果會繼續實現業績增長。瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)以iPhone熱賣、在亞洲需求旺盛爲由，剛剛上調了對蘋果盈利的估計。在各方預期如此之高的情況下，如果蘋果的交貨量達不到預期，市場將會感到驚詫。The result of Chinese market panic is uncertain, then. This is not: Chinese consumers have more smartphone choice than ever before. When the iPhone weathered the US recession in 2008, it was one of a kind. Today there are plenty of cheaper smartphones with similar functionality to the iPhone. Apple dominates the luxury end of the market, in China and around the world, but its brand is about to face a new test. No company is ever recession-proof.
中國股市的恐慌導致的結果是無法確定的。然而，有一點卻是確定無疑的：中國消費者在購買智能手機時的選擇比以往任何時候都多。2008年iPhone在美國衰退中安然無恙，當時它是獨一無二的。如今，大量更廉價的智能手機都能提供與iPhone類似的功能。在中國以及全世界，蘋果是高端市場中的領軍者，但是其品牌正要面臨一場新的考驗。沒有哪個企業能夠永遠不受衰退的影響。
